Should I Buy ADSK? ADSK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

240.400

1 Day change

0.98%

52 Week Range

329.090

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is in a sharp downswing (today -5.78%) with bearish trend structure and weakening momentum.
Despite strong fundamentals and very bullish Wall Street targets, near-term downside risk remains elevated into earnings (Feb 26) with very high options IV.
Insider activity is a clear negative (selling up ~180% MoM), which reduces confidence in calling an immediate bottom.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -1.382 and expanding negative → downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing yet.
RSI: RSI(6) ~20.4 (oversold/washed-out) suggests a bounce is possible, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: Price ~241.6 is below S1 (244.6) and closer to S2 (236.3); a break below ~236 could open more downside. Upside recovery would first need to reclaim ~244.6, then pivot ~258.
Short-term statistical pattern: model implies slightly negative next day, flat next week, and negative next month (-4.67%) → not supportive of an immediate “buy now” entry.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put open interest exceeds calls (OI P/C 1.45) → more hedging / bearish-to-cautious positioning.
Flow today: Volume P/C 0.57 → more calls traded than puts today (some dip-buying/speculative upside interest), but it’s not enough to offset bearish OI skew.
Volatility: 30D IV ~41.1 vs historical vol ~22.1 with IV percentile ~96.8 → options are pricing unusually large moves (event risk/uncertainty elevated), consistent with pre-earnings risk.
Liquidity/participation: Today’s volume below 10D averages, but open interest is elevated vs recent averages → positioning exists, but today’s activity wasn’t a major capitulation signal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Wall Street stance remains strongly positive: multiple Buy/Overweight ratings and high targets (roughly $319–$390 range in recent notes), suggesting meaningful upside if execution stays solid.
- Business momentum: continued adoption of cloud and AI tooling cited by analysts; leadership in design/BIM and exposure to infrastructure/data center build-out.
- Earnings catalyst: Q4 FY2026 results call on 2026-02-26 could reset sentiment higher if guidance/metrics surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action is decisively bearish (big down day, bearish MAs, negative MACD expansion) → higher probability of further near-term drawdown than immediate trend reversal.
- Insider selling: insiders are selling and the selling amount increased ~180% over the last month.
- Event risk: extremely high IV into the upcoming earnings window implies the market expects a large move; downside gap risk is non-trivial.
- No supportive proprietary timing signals today (no AI Stock Picker buy, no SwingMax entry).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q3 (fiscal Q3).
Revenue: $1.853B, +18.03% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: $343M, +24.73% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: $1.60, +25.98% YoY.
Gross margin: 90.39% (+0.65 YoY) → already-high margins still improving, supportive of durable profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: clearly improving/bullish—multiple initiations at Buy and several upgrades/target raises since late 2025.
Notable changes: JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight (PT $319); Redburn initiated Buy (PT $375); BTIG initiated Buy (PT $365); Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy (PT $375); Barclays reiterated Overweight and raised PT to $390; several others lifted targets post Q3.
Wall Street pros: leadership in AEC/design software, cloud/AI adoption tailwinds, strong execution cited in recent quarters, exposure to high-growth verticals (infrastructure/data centers).
Wall Street cons (implied by cautious stances like Market Perform): macro sensitivity of construction/industrial spend and the need to sustain clean execution through business model changes.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.

23 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ADSK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADSK is 373.71 USD with a low forecast of 330 USD and a high forecast of 400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

19 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 238.060

Low

330

Averages

373.71

High

400

Current: 238.060

Low

330

Averages

373.71

High

400

JPMorgan

Neutral -> Overweight

upgrade

$319

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$319

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

upgrade

Neutral -> Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan upgraded Autodesk to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $319. The firm adjusted ratings in the industrial software space, citing a shift in a conviction driven by "diverging fundamentals" within the vertical software-as-service landscape. Autodesk "stands out" for its leadership in design and building information modeling software and it sees "rapid adoption" of cloud and AI technologies. The company is positioned to capture "outsized share in high-growth verticals" such as data centers and infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Rothschild & Co Redburn

NULL -> Buy

initiated

$375

2026-01-09

Reason

Rothschild & Co Redburn

Price Target

$375

2026-01-09

initiated

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage of Autodesk with a Buy rating and $375 price target. The firm sees Autodesk's appeal at current trading levels as it forecasts the platform to deliver 5.0%-5.5% growth above its industries between 2024 and 2027, higher than the 3.5%-4% implied by consensus. The analyst sees growing demand for the company's converged solutions in architecture, engineering and construction workflows.

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ADSK Should I Buy

ADSK Should I Buy

Should You Buy Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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