Should I Buy ADPT? ADPT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

15.770

1 Day change

-4.25%

52 Week Range

20.760

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: Trend setup is constructive (bullish MA stack) and Wall St price targets imply meaningful upside from ~$18.5.
Near-term upside level: A push through the pivot (~18.57) sets up a technical move toward R1 ~19.51 (next resistance).
Positioning/sentiment supports upside: Hedge funds have been accumulating (+176.86% QoQ buying trend) and options open-interest skew is strongly call-heavy.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicate an established uptrend/bullish structure.
Momentum: MACD histogram slightly above zero but positively contracting → momentum is still positive, though not accelerating.
RSI: RSI(6) 54.42 (neutral) → not overbought; room for continuation if buyers step in.
Key levels: Pivot 18.566 (price is near this decision point). Support S1 17.619 / S2 17.034. Resistance R1 19.514 / R2 20.099.
Pattern-based stats (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of +0.61% next day, -4.34% next week, +2.18% next month → short-term chop possible, but monthly bias slightly positive.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest skew: Put/Call OI 0.22 is very low → positioning leans bullish (call-heavy).
Volume skew: Put/Call volume 0.75 is less extreme → traders are not overwhelmingly chasing calls today, but still not strongly bearish.
Volatility: IV 30d ~70.44 vs HV ~69.66 (similar), while IV percentile 4 / IV rank ~12.7 suggests IV is low vs its own history → options are relatively “cheap” compared to recent periods.
Activity: Today volume is low (7 contracts) but volume vs 30d avg ~4.58x (spike vs typical), and total OI ~3509 (calls 2876 vs puts 633) reinforces the bullish tilt.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (after hours) can act as a near-term catalyst.
- Analyst support: Recent price target raises (to $20–$21) with Buy/Overweight ratings from multiple firms.
- Institutional flow: Hedge funds show strong net buying trend (+176.86% QoQ).
- Technical structure: Bullish MA alignment supports dip-buying behavior near support zones.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Momentum not expanding: MACD is positive but contracting, implying the uptrend could pause without fresh catalysts.
- Near-term pattern risk: Similar-pattern model points to a potentially weak next week (-4.34%) despite slightly positive next-day odds.
- Profitability volatility: Latest quarter shows strong revenue/margin improvement but weaker bottom-line metrics (net income/EPS down YoY).
- No supportive news flow: No recent news items to reinforce bullish narrative in the immediate term.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $93.97M, +102.38% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Gross margin: 80.22%, +26.95% YoY (material improvement in profitability at the gross level).
Net income: $9.55M, -129.77% YoY (declined sharply vs prior year).
EPS: $0.06, -127.27% YoY (earnings power is not yet consistently improving despite strong revenue growth).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (recent 3–4 months): Clear positive drift with multiple price target raises.
Latest actions:
- Guggenheim (2026-01-26): Buy, PT $21 (from $20)
- TD Cowen (2026-01-07): Buy, PT $20 (from $19)
- JPMorgan (2025-11-06): Overweight, PT $20 (from $17)
- Morgan Stanley (2025-11-11): Equal Weight, PT $16 (from $11)
Wall Street pros: Upward target revisions and multiple Buy/Overweight views suggest expectations for continued diagnostics/tools execution and upside from current price.
Wall Street cons: Not unanimous (MS at Equal Weight, lower PT) and profitability trajectory is mixed even with strong revenue growth.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider trend is neutral.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ADPT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADPT is 20.25 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 16.470

Low

Averages

20.25

High

Current: 16.470

Low

Averages

20.25

High

BTIG

Buy

maintain

$21 -> $22

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

BTIG

Price Target

$21 -> $22

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

BTIG raised the firm's price target on Adaptive Biotechnologies to $22 from $21 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The company is firing on all cylinders amd is a leading growth story in specialty labs, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

TD Cowen

Buy

maintain

$20 -> $21

2026-02-06

New

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$20 -> $21

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Adaptive Biotechnologies to $21 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 beat and raised guidance and sees confident signals on numerous drivers; including EMR integrations, shift to blood-based tests, community uptake, new indications, pharma/ guidelines.

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ADPT Should I Buy

ADPT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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