Should I Buy ADCT? ADCT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.010

1 Day change

2.56%

52 Week Range

4.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is technically improving, but it’s pressing into near-term resistance (~3.95) with no strong catalyst and weakening quarterly fundamentals.
The pre-market +7.69% pop raises the risk of a fade into resistance rather than a clean breakout.
Options positioning is very call-heavy (bullish), but volume is thin and implied volatility is extremely elevated, suggesting “optimism + expensive risk,” not a high-conviction, low-risk entry.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: Bullish alignment with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established upward bias across short-to-long timeframes.
MACD: Histogram 0.0391 and expanding above 0 = bullish momentum still building.
RSI (6): 65.55 = upper-neutral/approaching overbought; upside is possible, but it’s not “freshly oversold,” so immediate risk/reward is less attractive for a chase entry.
Key levels: Pivot 3.653.
- Support: S1 3.359 (then S2 3.177).
- Resistance: R1 3.947 (very close to current 3.90), then R2 4.129.
Practical read: To become a clean momentum buy, it likely needs a decisive hold above ~3.95; at 3.90 it’s more of a “near-resistance” hold/avoid than a slam-dunk entry.
Pattern-based odds provided: modest upside expectations (next week +3.6%, next month +2.71%), not a strong edge for immediate buying.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio 0.08 = extremely call-skewed (bullish sentiment / speculative call interest).
Volume: Put/Call volume ratio 0.0 with total volume 40 (puts 0) = bullish but low participation; sentiment signal is less reliable when volume is small.
Volatility: 30D IV ~254.68% vs historical vol ~63.24% = options are pricing very large moves; this often coincides with event speculation or heightened uncertainty.
IV percentile 68 (IV rank 36.3): elevated vs typical levels; options are not “cheap.”
Takeaway: Sentiment leans bullish, but the very high IV + low volume suggests enthusiasm without broad confirmation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Technical backdrop is constructive (bullish moving averages + positive MACD).
- Pre-market strength (+7.69%) suggests near-term interest/flow.
- Options market skew is strongly call-heavy (bullish sentiment signal).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- News flow is not a clear business catalyst: the only ADCT-specific item is employee inducement option grants (typically neutral, mild dilution signal).
- The other news items reference Oncolytics Biotech, not ADC Therapeutics—so they don’t directly support ADCT fundamentals.
- Very high implied volatility indicates the market expects large swings; combined with price sitting near resistance, this increases the chance of a quick reversal if momentum fails.
- No notable hedge fund/insider accumulation trend noted (both neutral).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 16.43M, down -11.03% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: -40.97M (loss), down -6.83% YoY (still deeply negative; slight improvement in loss magnitude is not enough to offset weak revenue).
EPS: -0.36, down -14.29% YoY (worsening per-share profitability).
Gross margin: 92.68%, down -2.84% YoY (still very high, but trending slightly worse).
Overall: fundamentals show declining revenue and continued losses—doesn’t support an “impatient buy” unless a strong catalyst is imminent (not shown in provided data).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price target change data was provided, so no confirmed recent upgrades/downgrades or target revisions can be summarized from this dataset.
Likely Wall Street pros view (in general terms given the data):
- Pros: strong gross margin profile; potential biotech optionality; improving technical trend.
- Cons: revenue decline, ongoing sizable losses, and lack of a clear near-term catalyst in the provided news; elevated uncertainty implied by very high IV.
Net: without supportive rating/target momentum data, the balance skews cautious despite the improving chart.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ADCT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADCT is 7.33 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 3.910

Low

Averages

7.33

High

Current: 3.910

Low

Averages

7.33

High

H.C. Wainwright

Robert Burns

Buy

downgrade

$8 -> $7

AI Analysis

2025-10-16

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Robert Burns

Price Target

$8 -> $7

AI Analysis

2025-10-16

downgrade

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright analyst Robert Burns lowered the firm's price target on ADC Therapeutics to $7 from $8 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm reduced the price target after factoring in the private placement financing.

RBC Capital

Gregory Renza

Outperform

downgrade

$8 -> $5

2025-06-21

Reason

RBC Capital

Gregory Renza

Price Target

$8 -> $5

2025-06-21

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Gregory Renza lowered the firm's price target on ADC Therapeutics to $5 from $8 but keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says the company's high efficacy for Zynlonta in DLBCL gives it confidence in its likelihood to show clinically meaningful benefits in the 2nd line LOTIS-5 study, unlocking an additional $200M+ U.S. sales opportunity, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds that ADC shares are undervalued on the balance of a largely de-risked asset with multiple expansion opportunities that can reaccelerate growth.

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ADCT Should I Buy

ADCT Should I Buy

Should You Buy ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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