Not a good buy right now: price action is in a strong downtrend and momentum is still deteriorating (bearish MAs + expanding negative MACD), so the oversold RSI looks more like “falling knife” risk than a clean dip-buy.
With no Intellectia buy signals today and sentiment catalysts leaning negative (downgrades/target cuts + competitive pressure narrative), the path of least resistance remains lower despite potential for a short-term bounce.
For an impatient buyer, the odds favor more downside/whipsaw before a durable base forms; I would avoid initiating a new long here (and reduce/exit if already long).
Momentum: MACD histogram -1.672 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 15.48 = deeply oversold; this can spark a reflex bounce, but it’s not a trend reversal signal by itself.
Key levels: Price 273.11 is below S1 (277.20); next support is S2 (268.87). Pivot resistance is 290.67 (regaining/holding above this would be the first meaningful repair).
Short-horizon pattern stats provided: ~70% chance of small uptick next day/week, but next-month expectation is negative (-1.6%), consistent with “dead-cat bounce” risk inside a broader downtrend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Volatility regime: IV_30d 51.9 vs historical vol 28.94 = options pricing in unusually large moves (fear/uncertainty elevated).
IV percentile 98.4 (very high) and IV rank 77.49 = sentiment skewed toward stress/hedging; often appears during selloffs.
Positioning: OI put/call 0.83 suggests slightly more call OI than put OI (not extremely bearish structurally), but volume put/call at 1.0 shows day-to-day flow is defensive/neutral-to-bearish.
Liquidity/participation: today’s option volume ~82.8% of 30-day average (not a spike), while open interest is ~104.5% vs average (positions remain built up).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
increases probability of a short-term rebound.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Analyst sentiment has turned meaningfully worse (multiple downgrades and sharp price target cuts), reinforcing a lower-multiple narrative.
Competitive pressure narrative is intensifying (survey-based concerns in smaller businesses/students/freelancers; “seat compression” and “vibe coding” cited as multiple ceiling risks).
Insider activity: insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~864% over the last month (negative signal for near-term confidence).
Options imply elevated uncertainty (very high IV percentile), consistent with unstable price action.
News flow skew: software sector pessimism and unfavorable comparisons to faster-growing competitors (e.g., Figma growth highlighted).
Gross margin: 88.92%, +0.75% YoY (margin resilience remains a major strength).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: clearly negative—multiple downgrades to Neutral/Hold/Market Perform/Underweight and broad price target cuts.
Key moves: Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral and cut PT to $330 (from $470); Jefferies downgraded to Hold and cut PT to $400 (from $500); UBS cut PT to $340 (Neutral); BMO downgraded to Market Perform (PT $375); KeyBanc downgraded to Underweight (PT $310).
Wall Street “pros” case: strong profitability, solid Q4 growth, and potential for AI-driven product upsell.
Wall Street “cons” case: competition/market-share pressure (especially lower-end segments), concerns about seat compression and a capped valuation multiple, and lack of near-term positive catalysts—leading to expectations for range-bound-to-down performance.
Wall Street analysts forecast ADBE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADBE is 454.52 USD with a low forecast of 310 USD and a high forecast of 660 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
24 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ADBE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADBE is 454.52 USD with a low forecast of 310 USD and a high forecast of 660 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 269.390
Low
310
Averages
454.52
High
660
Current: 269.390
Low
310
Averages
454.52
High
660
Piper Sandler
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler downgraded Adobe to Neutral from Overweight.
Piper Sandler
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$470 -> $330
2026-02-02
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$470 -> $330
2026-02-02
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
As previously reported, Piper Sandler downgraded Adobe to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $330, down from $470, as the analyst took over coverage of the stock. The firm is concerned that seat-compression and vibe coding narratives could put a ceiling on the multiple, adding that "this is not a call" on Q4 earnings.
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