Should I Buy ACLS? ACLS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

86.080

1 Day change

5.63%

52 Week Range

102.930

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: trend/momentum is still bearish (MACD worsening) and options flow leans defensive.
Near-term setup looks more like a potential oversold bounce near support (~83.63) than a confirmed reversal; risk of further downside toward ~80.09 remains.
Event-driven upside exists from the Veeco merger progress, but fundamentals (latest reported quarter) are contracting and China digestion risk is still highlighted by analysts.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Price: 84.41 (closed). Regular session: -5.0% (weak tape vs S&P 500 -0.85%).
Momentum: MACD histogram -1.019 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI(6): 29.66 → near-oversold/washed-out conditions, which can support a short bounce, but not a trend reversal by itself.
Moving averages: converging → consolidation after a drop; needs upside follow-through to flip trend.
Key levels: Support S1 83.63 (immediate), then S2 80.09; Resistance pivot 89.38, then R1 95.13.
Pattern stats (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of +2.03% next day, +0.95% next week, +8.73% next month → mild positive bias, but not strong enough to override current bearish momentum.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open-interest put/call ~0.96 is roughly neutral positioning; volume put/call 1.18 shows more put activity today → near-term caution/hedging.
Volatility: IV30 52.52 vs HV 42.92 → options pricing implies elevated uncertainty; IV percentile 47.2 (mid-range), IV rank 6.88 (low vs recent extremes).
Activity: Today volume 214; today vs 30D avg volume ~94% (not a major spike). Open interest 11,160; today vs OI avg ~105% (slightly elevated positioning).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Merger catalyst: Veeco–Axcelis deal received UK Investment Security Unit clearance; Sweden screening requirements confirmed as not needing additional filings → reduces regulatory overhang and helps timeline certainty.
- Strategic narrative: Veeco highlights a $1.3B annealing market by 2029; merger framed as creating cross-platform growth opportunities.
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (after hours) with EPS est. 1.00 → potential catalyst if guidance/China demand holds up better than feared.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical damage: sharp -5% session and MACD downside expansion → sellers still in control.
- Options flow leans bearish (put volume > call volume), consistent with near-term caution.
- Fundamental pressure: latest reported quarter showed broad YoY declines (revenue, earnings, margin).
- China digestion risk remains “material” per the latest analyst note; demand uncertainty can keep multiples/price capped.
- Merger-adjacent headwind: Veeco shipped ~$15M Laser Annealing systems but has not recognized the revenue due to customs review → potential near-term headline/earnings noise.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 213.61M, -16.74% YoY → top-line contraction.
Net income: 25.99M, -46.50% YoY → profitability down sharply.
EPS: 0.83, -44.30% YoY → earnings power weakening.
Gross margin: 41.57%, -3.01% YoY → margin compression alongside lower volume.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2026-01-21, B. Riley): Neutral maintained; price target raised to $94 from $84.
Rating/target trend: target moved up while rating stayed neutral → modestly improving outlook, but not strong enough conviction to call it a buy.
Wall Street-style pros: potential in-line to slightly above consensus 4Q25/1Q26; possible partial memory/DRAM capex offsets.
Wall Street-style cons: China market digestion flagged as a key risk; demand visibility still not clean.
Positioning/trading behavior: Hedge funds and insiders noted as Neutral (no significant recent trend). Congress trading: no recent data.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ACLS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ACLS is 98.5 USD with a low forecast of 84 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 81.490

Low

Averages

98.5

High

110

Current: 81.490

Low

Averages

98.5

High

110

B. Riley

Craig Ellis

Neutral

maintain

$84 -> $94

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

B. Riley

Craig Ellis

Price Target

$84 -> $94

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

maintain

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis raised the firm's price target on Axcelis to $94 from $84 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Axcelis' 4Q25 results and 1Q26 guidance are projected to be in-line to slightly above consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. China market digestion remains a material risk, though potential partial memory offsets could emerge if DRAM capacity spending accelerates, the firm says.

B. Riley

Neutral

downgrade

$85 -> $84

2025-11-05

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$85 -> $84

2025-11-05

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Axcelis to $84 from $85 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the Q report.

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ACLS Should I Buy

ACLS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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