Should I Buy ABUS? ABUS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arbutus Biopharma Corp (ABUS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

3.840

1 Day change

4.63%

52 Week Range

5.100

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price action is weakening (negative/expanding MACD histogram) and there are no Intellectia entry signals to justify immediate positioning.
The stock is being driven by a binary litigation catalyst (Moderna patent case). That can spike upside, but the recent ruling also tightens Arbutus’ path (must emphasize literal infringement), keeping outcomes uncertain.
Options positioning is very call-heavy (bullish sentiment), but the very high IV implies the market is already pricing big moves—risk/reward is not attractive for a “buy now, no waiting” approach.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0102 (below 0) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum building.
RSI(6): 41.09 → soft/neutral-to-weak demand; not an oversold snap-back signal.
Moving averages: converging → no clear trend leadership; suggests chop with downside bias given MACD.
Levels: Price ~4.09 is sitting on the pivot 4.083 (near-term inflection). Downside supports: 3.663 (S1) then 3.404 (S2). Upside resistance: 4.504 (R1) then 4.763 (R2).
Recent tape: regular session -6.38% (despite earlier news pop) → sellers still active into closes.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are extremely low (OI PCR 0.31, Volume PCR 0.01) → positioning/flow is strongly call-skewed (bullish).
Activity: Today’s option volume 1108 vs 30-day average shows a large surge (~254.7%) → event-driven trading.
Volatility: 30D IV 80.57 vs historical vol 45.71; IV percentile 66 → options are expensive, reflecting elevated expected move into legal milestones.
Open interest: Calls (37,442) materially exceed puts (11,613) → market leaning to upside outcomes, but paying up for it.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Litigation catalyst: Judge ruling keeps the Moderna vaccine patent dispute headed to a jury trial (scheduled March next year), which can drive renewed speculation on potential licensing/damages.
- News-driven momentum: Stock previously reacted positively (~10% reported) on the trial-bound headline → sensitivity to favorable legal updates.
- Street view: Jefferies reiterates Buy on ABUS and argues the doctrine-of-equivalents limitation “shouldn’t technically change the outcome” if Moderna’s components fall within the patented range.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Legal overhang: Judge indicated Arbutus must prove literal infringement due to limits on “doctrine of equivalents” arguments → potentially higher bar and reduced flexibility at trial.
- Event timing: Jury trial is next year → long window for volatility, headline swings, and dilution/funding concerns to re-emerge.
- Price action risk: Big down regular-session move (-6.38%) suggests traders are selling rallies and uncertainty remains high.
- No notable supportive flows: Hedge funds/insiders reported neutral with no significant recent trend.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $529K, down -60.49% YoY → sharp contraction; no clear operating growth engine evident from this snapshot.
Net income: -($7.742M) (more negative, down -60.73% YoY as provided) → continued losses.
EPS: -0.04, down -60% YoY → profitability not improving.
Gross margin: 100% (flat) → margin isn’t the issue; the issue is scale/recurring revenue and ongoing burn typical of pre-commercial biotech.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change/event: Jefferies (2026-02-02) comments on the Moderna case summary judgment; maintains Buy on ABUS.
Price targets: no explicit price target update provided in the data.
Wall Street pro view (pros): ABUS offers asymmetric upside tied to a potential favorable jury outcome/settlement around LNP IP.
Wall Street con view (cons): the judge’s limitation on doctrine-of-equivalents adds uncertainty, and fundamentals show declining revenue with ongoing losses—making the stock heavily catalyst-dependent.
Politicians/Influential figures: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity indicated. Insiders: neutral; Hedge funds: neutral.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ABUS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABUS is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 3.670

Low

Averages

High

Current: 3.670

Low

Averages

High

Jefferies

Dennis Ding

Buy

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

Jefferies

Dennis Ding

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies analyst Dennis Ding notes that Judge Wolson issued summary judgment on three matters in a patent fight between Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) and Moderna (MRNA). While the analyst says two of the three rulings were in-line with the firm's thinking going into summary judgment, the judgement in favor of Moderna that Arbutus cannot claim infringement under the "doctrine of equivalents" seemed "interesting" as the Judge basically is implying Arbutus needs to meet a higher bar to prove infringement. However, this "shouldn't technically change the outcome" since the firm believes Moderna's LNP components lie within Arbutus' patented range, the analyst added. The firm has a Buy rating on Arbutus shares and a Hold rating on Moderna.

Chardan Capital

Keay Nakae

Strong Buy

Maintains

2025-03-28

Reason

Chardan Capital

Keay Nakae

Price Target

2025-03-28

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

ABUS Should I Buy

ABUS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Arbutus Biopharma Corp (ABUS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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