Buy (tactical/speculative) at ~$3.12: technicals are turning up (MACD positive/expanding) and options positioning is strongly call-skewed, which fits a near-term upside attempt.
Not a fundamentals-driven buy right now: hedge funds are aggressively net selling and 2025/Q3 revenue collapsed, so this is best treated as a momentum/swing setup rather than a long-term conviction entry.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is +0.0017 and positively expanding → early bullish momentum.
RSI: RSI(6) 54.36 (neutral) → not overbought; room for upside if momentum continues.
Moving averages: converging MAs → compression/inflection zone; breakouts can move quickly.
Key levels: Pivot 3.023 (important near-term support). Resistance 3.147 (R1) then 3.224 (R2). Supports 2.899 (S1) then 2.822 (S2).
Price context: closed at ~3.12, slightly above pivot and pressing toward R1, consistent with a short-term breakout attempt.
Pattern-based forward view (provided): 80% chance of -0.15% next day, but +7.02% next week and +22.28% next month → favors a swing-long bias over intraday precision.
Activity: Today’s volume 986 vs 30-day average (volume ratio 49.03) → unusual spike in attention.
Open interest: Calls OI 48,505 vs puts OI 9,312 → call-heavy structure.
Volatility: 30D IV 68.41 vs HV 130.05; IV percentile 1.6 / IV rank 5.64 → options are relatively “cheap” versus recent realized movement, supportive for bullish positioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
on ABS-201 program inclusion and perceived preclinical strength.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
citing increased risk and reduced near-term visibility.
Gross margin:100% (typical for low revenue/biotech-style reporting; not a sign of operating strength by itself).
Overall: financials support a speculative trade thesis (pipeline/optionality), not a “fundamentals are improving now” thesis.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2026-01-08 (Morgan Stanley): Downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; PT $4.32 (cut from $5.80) due to higher risk profile and reduced visibility.
2025-12-17 (H.C. Wainwright): Maintained Buy; raised PT to $8 (from $7) after investor event; added ABS-201 to model and expressed confidence in preclinical evidence.
Wall Street pros/cons view:
Pros: upside optionality tied to pipeline programs; at least one bullish boutique analyst sees meaningful upside.
Cons: a major bank turned more cautious and cut PT; visibility/execution risk is highlighted; institutional flow (hedge funds) is negative.
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders show no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast ABSI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABSI is 7.66 USD with a low forecast of 4.32 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ABSI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABSI is 7.66 USD with a low forecast of 4.32 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 2.530
Low
4.32
Averages
7.66
High
10
Current: 2.530
Low
4.32
Averages
7.66
High
10
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Absci to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $4.32, down from $5.80. The latest company and pipeline disclosures have meaningfully increased the risk profile and reduced the visibility of near-term, value-accretive execution, contends the analyst, who is updating the firm's valuation and risk framework and, in doing so, lowering its price target and rating.
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
maintain
$7 -> $8
2025-12-17
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$7 -> $8
2025-12-17
maintain
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Absci to $8 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company hosted an investor event to discuss its androgenetic alopecia program for ABS-201. The firm incorporated ABS-201 into the company's model. ABS-201 has the potential to increase the proportion of hair follicles in the growth phase versus the resting phase -- a time period when hair shedding occurs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. H.C. Wainwright has confidence in the ABS-201 program based on the strength of the preclinical evidence.
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