Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: momentum is still bearish (negative/expanding MACD) and the stock is sitting at/just below first support (~231.95), which often leads to further downside before a durable bounce.
Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but that’s not enough to override the weak technical tape and near-term event risk.
Hedge fund flow is a headwind (selling up ~166% QoQ), while insiders are neutral—net sentiment from “smart money” is not supportive.
Net: Avoid initiating a new position today; if already holding, this is a hold (not an add).
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is -1.862 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) ~30.3 → near oversold territory; this can trigger short bounces, but it is not a confirmed reversal by itself.
Moving averages: Converging → indecision/transition, but with MACD bearish, the balance still tilts down.
Key levels: Pivot 243.00 (overhead resistance). Immediate support S1 231.95 (price ~231.89 is marginally below it), next support S2 225.12. If 231–232 fails to reclaim quickly, odds rise of a test toward ~225.
Pattern-based projection: Similar-pattern stats imply +3.39% next day / +6.01% next week, but -10.25% next month → short-term bounce potential inside a weaker medium-term setup.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are extremely call-heavy (OI P/C 0.38; Volume P/C 0.02) → traders are positioned bullish.
Activity: Today’s option volume vs 30-day avg is ~447% → unusual interest; could be positioning into the next catalyst.
Volatility: 30D IV ~38.21 vs historical vol ~29.29 (IV > HV) → options are pricing elevated near-term movement.
Takeaway: Options flow looks optimistic, but in this context it can also reflect pre-event speculation rather than confirmed upside follow-through.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst: Next earnings 2026-02-05 (Pre-Market); a beat/raise could quickly re-rate the stock given current weak technical positioning.
Fundamentals momentum (latest quarter): Revenue/EPS/net income all grew YoY (see financials) → underlying business is still expanding.
Used vehicle market commentary (from analyst checks): indications of used market momentum could support results if sustained.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases probability of a move toward ~
Institutional flow: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up ~165.95% last quarter) → persistent supply pressure.
Wall Street pros: Dealers seen as resilient with shareholder returns; used market momentum noted.
Wall Street cons: Softer unit sales pressures and a more cautious 2026 backdrop; neutral ratings suggest limited conviction for near-term outperformance.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no actionable signal from political/influential trading).
Wall Street analysts forecast ABG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABG is 238.67 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 251 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ABG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABG is 238.67 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 251 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 220.550
Low
230
Averages
238.67
High
251
Current: 220.550
Low
230
Averages
238.67
High
251
Barclays
John Babcock
Equal Weight
downgrade
$250 -> $230
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Barclays
John Babcock
Price Target
$250 -> $230
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst John Babcock lowered the firm's price target on Asbury Automotive to $230 from $250 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reduced estimates The firm reduced estimates post the Q4 report.
Barclays
John Babcock
Equal Weight
downgrade
$251 -> $250
2026-01-21
Reason
Barclays
John Babcock
Price Target
$251 -> $250
2026-01-21
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst John Babcock lowered the firm's price target on Asbury Automotive to $250 from $251 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the auto retail group as part of its Q4 outlook. It broadly lowered estimates across the sector on "soft" auto sales unit pressures. However, trade checks suggest the used vehicle market has good momentum, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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