Buy now (tactical swing): Price is sitting just above the key pivot/support zone (~14.25) with fading downside momentum, which suits an impatient entry.
Signal-driven support: SwingMax flashed an entry on 2026-02-03 and the stock is up ~3.36% since—still consistent with an active swing setup.
Street sees meaningful upside: Multiple Buy/Overweight ratings with targets mostly $17–$22 vs. ~$14.4 current.
Key risk you’re accepting by buying now: profits collapsed in 2025/Q4 and hedge funds have been selling aggressively, which can cap rallies.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.104) but negatively contracting → bearish momentum is weakening (often a stabilization/turning hint rather than a confirmed uptrend).
RSI (6): 57.64 → neutral-to-slightly bullish, not overbought.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → range/transition regime, consistent with a tradable base.
Levels to watch:
Pivot/support: 14.245 (important for keeping the long thesis intact)
Resistance: 15.152 (R1) then 15.712 (R2)
Downside supports: 13.337 (S1) then 12.777 (S2)
Pattern-based odds (provided): Next day shows mixed/flat bias, but next week (+5.54%) and next month (+21.77%) skew positive—supports a buy-for-swing posture.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning vs. flow:
Open interest P/C = 2.11 → heavier put OI outstanding (more hedging / cautious positioning).
Volume P/C = 0.59 → today’s flow is more call-leaning (near-term trading sentiment improved).
Volatility:
30D IV: 44.84 vs HV: 39.83 → options are priced with a modest premium to realized.
IV rank 14.4 / IV percentile 32.27 → IV is relatively low vs. its own history (not “panic” pricing).
Activity: Today’s volume 76k, about **92% of 30D average** → normal-to-healthy participation, not a blow-off.
Takeaway: Top-line is holding up, but earnings power weakened materially; the bull case relies on margin/operations normalizing into FY26.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Overall tone has improved (multiple target raises and at least one meaningful upgrade), though one firm trimmed its target after modeling near-term disruption impacts.
Susquehanna: upgraded to Positive with PT $20 (from $14).
UBS: Buy, PT $21.
TD Cowen: Buy, but PT recently cut to $17 (near-term storm impacts / model adjustments).
BofA: Neutral, PT $17.
BMO: Market Perform, PT $17.
Wall Street pros: Improving airline backdrop into 2026, demand momentum, potential margin improvement initiatives, multiple PTs far above current price.
Wall Street cons: Near-term operational disruptions and the need to prove profit recovery after the steep 2025/Q4 earnings drop.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no visible political buying/selling signal).
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast AAL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAL is 17.44 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AAL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAL is 17.44 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.160
Low
10
Averages
17.44
High
21
Current: 14.160
Low
10
Averages
17.44
High
21
Citi
Buy
maintain
$21
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$21
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on American Airlines while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $21 price target. Citi is "tactically bullish" on the sector post the Q4 reports and believes updates in February and March will show the airline's Chicago overhang is not as bad as feared.
TD Cowen
Buy
downgrade
$19 -> $17
2026-01-30
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$19 -> $17
2026-01-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on American Airlines to $17 from $19 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model with 1Q EPS near low end of the range given difficulties around Winter Storm Fern and fine-tune rest of FY26 estimates on management color.
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