York Space Systems IPO Price Decline Post-Launch
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy YSS?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- IPO Performance: York Space Systems went public last week on the NYSE with an offering price of $34 per share, selling 18.5 million shares, exceeding expectations, and opening at $38.10; however, by the weekend, the stock fell to $33.95, indicating market concerns about its future prospects.
- Market Position and Risks: York focuses on military satellites with 136 satellite orders from the U.S. Space Force, of which 33 are currently in orbit; however, its future revenue is heavily reliant on funding from the Space Development Agency, and cancellation of this project could significantly impact the company.
- Financial Condition Analysis: As of Q3 2025, York's total debt stood at $415.5 million, with estimated sales for 2025 at $387.8 million and potential losses exceeding $90 million, alongside a negative cash flow of $88.2 million, highlighting pressure on the company's financial management.
- Market Opportunities and Challenges: Despite sales growth exceeding 50% from 2024 to 2025, York's market valuation is $4.2 billion with a price-to-sales ratio of 11.6, significantly above industry averages, prompting investors to carefully assess its future growth potential against current valuation.
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Analyst Views on YSS
Wall Street analysts forecast YSS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for YSS is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
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Current: 23.130
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Current: 23.130
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About YSS
Yellowstone Midco Holdings II, LLC is a space and defense prime providing a suite of mission-critical solutions for national security, government and commercial customers. The Company is a provider of proliferated warfighter space solutions, delivering fully integrated, mission-ready systems, combining performance spacecraft and software-defined operations. Its capabilities include a differentiated suite of spacecraft solutions. It offers the S-CLASS, LX-CLASS, and M-CLASS spacecraft, which are quality satellite platforms that are scalable to an array of space market needs. Its spacecraft is supported by satellite software enabling versatile integration of a variety of payloads for customers and supply chain commonalities across platforms. Its S-CLASS is a payload-capable platform with an extensive on-orbit heritage, tailored for rapid fielding and flexible use cases. Its M-CLASS spacecraft is designed for a total mass of up to approximately 2,000 kgs and an 8kW peak power system.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- IPO Overview: York Space Systems had its IPO on the NYSE, initially planning to offer 16 million shares at $30 to $34, ultimately selling 18.5 million shares at the top price of $34, indicating strong market demand.
- Stock Price Fluctuation: Despite opening at $38.10, York's stock closed at $33.95 on its first trading day, reflecting investor concerns about its future prospects, thus marking it as a 'broken IPO'.
- Financial Condition Analysis: According to the IPO prospectus, York's estimated sales for 2025 are capped at $387.8 million, with potential losses exceeding $90 million, and total debt reaching $415.5 million as of Q3 2025, indicating significant financial strain.
- Market Outlook and Risks: York anticipates a total addressable market of approximately $140 billion by 2028; however, its reliance on U.S. Space Force contracts poses risks, as any cancellation of related projects could severely impact future revenues.
See More
