W.W. Grainger Q4 Earnings Preview
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 02 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GWW?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement Date: W.W. Grainger is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 3 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $9.46, reflecting a 2.6% year-over-year decline, indicating potential profitability challenges.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 stands at $4.4 billion, representing a 4.8% year-over-year increase, suggesting some resilience in market demand despite the moderate growth rate.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, W.W. Grainger has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 38% of the time, highlighting the company's volatility in meeting earnings forecasts.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 16 downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced no upward revisions and 13 downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
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Analyst Views on GWW
Wall Street analysts forecast GWW stock price to fall
7 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 1116.600
Low
975.00
Averages
1039
High
1100
Current: 1116.600
Low
975.00
Averages
1039
High
1100
About GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc. is a broadline distributor of maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) products serving businesses and institutions. The Company’s segments include High-Touch Solutions North America (High-Touch Solutions N.A.) and Endless Assortment. The Company's High-Touch Solutions N.A. segment provides value-added MRO solutions. This segment primarily includes the Grainger-branded businesses in the United States, Canada, Mexico and Puerto Rico. The Company’s Endless Assortment segment provides an online platform with one-stop shopping for various products. The Endless Assortment segment includes the Company’s Zoro Tools, Inc. (Zoro) and MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (MonotaRO) online channels which operate predominately in the United States and Japan. The Company’s product offering is grouped under several broad categories, including safety and security, material handling and storage, pumps and plumbing equipment, cleaning and maintenance, metalworking and hand tools.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
W.W. Grainger Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Strong Guidance
- Strong Financial Performance: Grainger reported full-year 2025 sales of $17.9 billion, reflecting a 4.5% increase, with daily organic constant currency sales growing by 4.6%, demonstrating resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- Strategic Investments and Growth: CEO Macpherson emphasized the company's exit from the U.K. market and investment in new supply chain capabilities, projecting 2026 revenue between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, with daily organic constant currency sales growth expected to range from 6.5% to 9%.
- AI-Driven Market Expansion: Significant progress in AI and machine learning is noted, with plans to leverage AI for actionable market insights in 2026, driving growth in both High-Touch Solutions and Endless Assortment segments, the latter expected to grow by 12.5% to 15%.
- Shareholder Returns and Profit Outlook: Adjusted EPS for 2025 was $39.48, with 2026 EPS guidance set between $42.25 and $44.75, indicating the company's commitment to shareholder returns while maintaining profitability and competitive positioning.
See More
Grainger Reports Strong Q4 Results, Issues 2026 Guidance
- Strong Performance: Grainger's Q4 revenue reached $4.425 billion, a 4.5% increase year-over-year, surpassing analysts' expectations of $4.40 billion, demonstrating the company's resilience in a challenging macro environment and boosting market confidence.
- Profitability Decline: Although adjusted earnings per share came in at $9.44, aligning closely with the consensus estimate of $9.46, net income fell from $475 million last year to $451 million, reflecting a 70 basis point decline in operating margin to 14.3% due to rising expenses.
- Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: Grainger generated $2 billion in operating cash flow in 2025 and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, underscoring continued capital discipline despite margin pressures, which enhances investor confidence.
- 2026 Outlook: The company guided for 2026 net sales between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, slightly above analysts' expectations of $18.83 billion, while projecting earnings per share between $42.25 and $44.75, indicating strong confidence in future growth.
See More
Josh Brown Identifies Three Strong Stock Picks
- Targa's Strong Performance: Josh Brown highlights Targa (TRGP) with an expected 22% cash flow growth heading into earnings and a 2% dividend yield, showcasing strong market momentum that attracts investor interest.
- W.W. Grainger's Defensive Edge: W.W. Grainger (GWW) is viewed as a defensive investment due to its business model being minimally disrupted by emerging technologies, having returned $1.5 billion to shareholders last year and planning to continue this trend, indicating financial stability.
- Corteva's Breakout Mode: Corteva (CTVA) enters a “breakout mode” after raising full-year guidance, with its cash flow growth described as “explosive,” and the potential spin-off of its pesticide division could unlock additional shareholder value.
- Technical Chart Analysis: All three stocks have shown consistent accumulation since their September lows, particularly Corteva's golden cross pattern indicating buyers are taking control, which gives Brown confidence in their upward trajectory.
See More
Grainger (GWW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Grainger Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
- Earnings Highlights: Grainger reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $9.44, missing estimates by $0.02, while revenue reached $4.43 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by $40 million, indicating robust market performance.
- Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $2.0 billion in operating cash flow and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, showcasing its strong cash generation capabilities and commitment to shareholder returns.
- 2026 Guidance: Grainger projects net sales for 2026 to range between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, with a sales growth rate of 4.2% to 6.7%, reflecting an optimistic outlook for future growth despite a consensus estimate of $18.83 billion.
- Margin Expectations: The company anticipates a gross profit margin of 39.2% to 39.5% and an operating margin of 15.4% to 15.9% for 2026, highlighting its strategic efforts in cost control and enhancing profitability.
See More
Preview of the Review: Cast No Shadow
- Stock Market Performance: Stocks are experiencing a rise similar to January's performance, indicating positive investor sentiment.
- Influencing Factors: Fresh economic data and a strong upcoming earnings season are contributing to the optimistic outlook among investors.
See More
W.W. Grainger Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Strong Guidance
- Strong Financial Performance: Grainger reported full-year 2025 sales of $17.9 billion, reflecting a 4.5% increase, with daily organic constant currency sales growing by 4.6%, demonstrating resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- Strategic Investments and Growth: CEO Macpherson emphasized the company's exit from the U.K. market and investment in new supply chain capabilities, projecting 2026 revenue between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, with daily organic constant currency sales growth expected to range from 6.5% to 9%.
- AI-Driven Market Expansion: Significant progress in AI and machine learning is noted, with plans to leverage AI for actionable market insights in 2026, driving growth in both High-Touch Solutions and Endless Assortment segments, the latter expected to grow by 12.5% to 15%.
- Shareholder Returns and Profit Outlook: Adjusted EPS for 2025 was $39.48, with 2026 EPS guidance set between $42.25 and $44.75, indicating the company's commitment to shareholder returns while maintaining profitability and competitive positioning.
See More
Grainger Reports Strong Q4 Results, Issues 2026 Guidance
- Strong Performance: Grainger's Q4 revenue reached $4.425 billion, a 4.5% increase year-over-year, surpassing analysts' expectations of $4.40 billion, demonstrating the company's resilience in a challenging macro environment and boosting market confidence.
- Profitability Decline: Although adjusted earnings per share came in at $9.44, aligning closely with the consensus estimate of $9.46, net income fell from $475 million last year to $451 million, reflecting a 70 basis point decline in operating margin to 14.3% due to rising expenses.
- Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: Grainger generated $2 billion in operating cash flow in 2025 and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, underscoring continued capital discipline despite margin pressures, which enhances investor confidence.
- 2026 Outlook: The company guided for 2026 net sales between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, slightly above analysts' expectations of $18.83 billion, while projecting earnings per share between $42.25 and $44.75, indicating strong confidence in future growth.
See More
Josh Brown Identifies Three Strong Stock Picks
- Targa's Strong Performance: Josh Brown highlights Targa (TRGP) with an expected 22% cash flow growth heading into earnings and a 2% dividend yield, showcasing strong market momentum that attracts investor interest.
- W.W. Grainger's Defensive Edge: W.W. Grainger (GWW) is viewed as a defensive investment due to its business model being minimally disrupted by emerging technologies, having returned $1.5 billion to shareholders last year and planning to continue this trend, indicating financial stability.
- Corteva's Breakout Mode: Corteva (CTVA) enters a “breakout mode” after raising full-year guidance, with its cash flow growth described as “explosive,” and the potential spin-off of its pesticide division could unlock additional shareholder value.
- Technical Chart Analysis: All three stocks have shown consistent accumulation since their September lows, particularly Corteva's golden cross pattern indicating buyers are taking control, which gives Brown confidence in their upward trajectory.
See More
Grainger (GWW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Grainger Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
- Earnings Highlights: Grainger reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $9.44, missing estimates by $0.02, while revenue reached $4.43 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by $40 million, indicating robust market performance.
- Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $2.0 billion in operating cash flow and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, showcasing its strong cash generation capabilities and commitment to shareholder returns.
- 2026 Guidance: Grainger projects net sales for 2026 to range between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, with a sales growth rate of 4.2% to 6.7%, reflecting an optimistic outlook for future growth despite a consensus estimate of $18.83 billion.
- Margin Expectations: The company anticipates a gross profit margin of 39.2% to 39.5% and an operating margin of 15.4% to 15.9% for 2026, highlighting its strategic efforts in cost control and enhancing profitability.
See More
Preview of the Review: Cast No Shadow
- Stock Market Performance: Stocks are experiencing a rise similar to January's performance, indicating positive investor sentiment.
- Influencing Factors: Fresh economic data and a strong upcoming earnings season are contributing to the optimistic outlook among investors.
See More
