Vital Farms Adjusts FY25 Revenue Forecast Due to ERP Issues
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 16 2025
0mins
Should l Buy VITL?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Revenue Outlook Adjustment: Vital Farms has lowered its 2025 revenue forecast to between $755M and $765M due to disruptions from a new ordering system, down from a previous estimate of at least $775M.
Long-term Financial Goals: The company aims for annual net revenue of $2B by 2030, with a gross margin of over 35% and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 15% and 17% during the 2025-2030 period.
Operational Transition: Vital Farms has completed the "hypercare" phase of its new enterprise resource planning system and has returned to normal operations, utilizing the new IT capabilities.
Market Reaction: Shares of Vital Farms are expected to open lower following the revised revenue guidance for FY25, marking the first decline in six days.
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Analyst Views on VITL
Wall Street analysts forecast VITL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VITL is 48.90 USD with a low forecast of 44.00 USD and a high forecast of 60.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 26.190
Low
44.00
Averages
48.90
High
60.00
Current: 26.190
Low
44.00
Averages
48.90
High
60.00
About VITL
Vital Farms, Inc. offers a range of ethically produced foods nationwide. The Company is a national consumer brand that works with more than 575 family farms and is the United States brand of pasture-raised eggs. The Company focuses on the humane treatment of farm animals and sustainable farming practices. The Company packages, markets and distributes shell eggs, butter, and other products. Its products, including shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, and liquid whole eggs, are sold in approximately 23,500 stores nationwide. The retail varieties of its shell eggs are based on supplemental feed type, egg size, and pack size. Its egg packaging consists primarily of corrugated boxes and egg cartons. The Company offers unsalted and sea-salted varieties of its butter, which are sold in two-stick and four-stick packs. The Company’s products are principally sold under the name Vital Farms in addition to other trade names, primarily to retail and foodservice channels in the United States.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TD Cowen Maintains 'Buy' Rating and $44 Target on Vital Farms (VITL)
- Stock Volatility: Shares of Vital Farms (VITL) fell 6% during regular trading due to negative social media commentary but rebounded in after-hours trading, indicating a market reaction to the analyst's perspective.
- Analyst Perspective: TD Cowen analysts dismissed the criticisms regarding the company's nutritional value as 'highly unwarranted and misleading,' noting that most nutritionists view linoleic acid as a positive component, emphasizing its importance in daily diets.
- Revenue Goals: Vital Farms has set a target of achieving $2 billion in net revenue by 2030, with expectations of $755 million to $765 million in net revenue for 2025 and over $115 million in adjusted core profit, reflecting strong confidence in future growth.
- Market Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around VITL stock shifted from 'neutral' to 'bearish' over the past 24 hours, while message volume increased from 'normal' to 'high,' indicating growing investor concern and attention towards the company's outlook.
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- Quality Companies Queued for IPOs: Ben Frost from Goldman Sachs noted that the number of high-quality companies waiting to go public in 2026 is the highest since 2021, and if successful, this could provide private investors with regular exit opportunities, stimulating private equity activity.
- Return of Mega Deals: The second half of last year saw several mega deals, including Kimberly-Clark's nearly $50 billion acquisition of Kenvue, reflecting an increased focus on growth and synergies, which is likely to drive larger transactions than in previous years.
- Increased Investor Activity: With activist investors taking stakes in companies like Lululemon and Target, more deals and corporate breakups are anticipated, highlighting a market shift towards health-focused brands and corporate restructuring, potentially leading to more carve-outs and acquisitions.
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Vital Farms Founder Sells 25,000 Shares for Approximately $771,300
- Transaction Overview: Vital Farms founder Matthew O'Hayer sold 25,000 shares for approximately $771,300 on January 2, 2026, reducing his direct holdings to 6,361,190 shares, indicating a consistent selling strategy.
- Ownership Proportion Change: This transaction decreased O'Hayer's direct ownership by 0.37%, aligning with his historical selling pattern of 0.31%-0.33%, reflecting a methodical approach to share disposition.
- Market Performance: Despite a drop from the 52-week high, Vital Farms achieved record revenue of $198.9 million in Q3, a 37% year-over-year increase, showcasing strong business growth potential.
- Financial Health: With $145.1 million in cash and no debt at the end of Q3, Vital Farms demonstrates solid financial health, making it an attractive investment opportunity at its current low valuation.
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Vital Farms Founder Sells 25,000 Shares for ~$771,300 Amidst Market Fluctuations
- Share Sale: Founder and Executive Chairperson Matthew O'Hayer sold 25,000 shares on January 2, 2026, generating approximately $771,300, reflecting a gradual reduction in his holdings and aligning with his historical pattern of 24,000-share transactions.
- Ownership Status: This sale represented only 0.37% of O'Hayer's direct holdings and 0.0558% of total shares outstanding, indicating he still holds over six million shares, suggesting he is not in a rush to dump stock.
- Financial Performance: Vital Farms achieved record revenue of $198.9 million in Q3 2025, a strong 37% year-over-year increase, with net income more than doubling to $16.4 million, showcasing the company's robust market performance.
- Market Opportunity: Although the stock price has dropped from a 52-week high to $29.82, the company's solid financial position and a low price-to-earnings ratio of about 23 indicate that now is a good time for investors to consider increasing their shareholdings.
See More
Vital Farms CEO to Attend 2026 ICR Conference in Orlando
- Executive Attendance: Vital Farms' CEO Russell Diez-Canseco will participate in the 28th Annual ICR Conference in Orlando on January 12 and 13, 2026, showcasing the company's leadership in the sustainable food sector.
- Investor Engagement: The company will offer 1x1 meeting opportunities during the conference and host a fireside chat at 2:30 PM on January 12, aiming to strengthen communication with investors and enhance market awareness of its brand.
- Brand Influence: As the leading U.S. brand of pasture-raised eggs, Vital Farms collaborates with 575 small farms, with products sold in over 23,500 stores nationwide, further solidifying its position in the sustainable food market.
- Corporate Responsibility: As a Certified B Corporation, Vital Farms emphasizes long-term benefits for farmers, consumers, and the environment, reflecting its commitment to sustainable agriculture and humane treatment of animals.
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Report Overview: Recent reports from investment and research firms provide insights into analysts' perspectives on various companies.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in these reports do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Barron’s.
Investment Services: Some report issuers may have existing or potential investment-banking relationships with the companies analyzed.
Purpose of Reports: The reports serve as a sampling of analyst thinking rather than definitive investment advice.
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TD Cowen Maintains 'Buy' Rating and $44 Target on Vital Farms (VITL)
- Stock Volatility: Shares of Vital Farms (VITL) fell 6% during regular trading due to negative social media commentary but rebounded in after-hours trading, indicating a market reaction to the analyst's perspective.
- Analyst Perspective: TD Cowen analysts dismissed the criticisms regarding the company's nutritional value as 'highly unwarranted and misleading,' noting that most nutritionists view linoleic acid as a positive component, emphasizing its importance in daily diets.
- Revenue Goals: Vital Farms has set a target of achieving $2 billion in net revenue by 2030, with expectations of $755 million to $765 million in net revenue for 2025 and over $115 million in adjusted core profit, reflecting strong confidence in future growth.
- Market Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around VITL stock shifted from 'neutral' to 'bearish' over the past 24 hours, while message volume increased from 'normal' to 'high,' indicating growing investor concern and attention towards the company's outlook.
See More
Retail IPOs Expected to Rise in 2026 as Quality Companies Increase
- Market Recovery Signal: After a stagnant first half of 2025 due to tariffs, industry executives predict a significant uptick in mergers and IPOs in the retail and consumer goods sectors for 2026, indicating a restoration of market confidence.
- Quality Companies Queued for IPOs: Ben Frost from Goldman Sachs noted that the number of high-quality companies waiting to go public in 2026 is the highest since 2021, and if successful, this could provide private investors with regular exit opportunities, stimulating private equity activity.
- Return of Mega Deals: The second half of last year saw several mega deals, including Kimberly-Clark's nearly $50 billion acquisition of Kenvue, reflecting an increased focus on growth and synergies, which is likely to drive larger transactions than in previous years.
- Increased Investor Activity: With activist investors taking stakes in companies like Lululemon and Target, more deals and corporate breakups are anticipated, highlighting a market shift towards health-focused brands and corporate restructuring, potentially leading to more carve-outs and acquisitions.
See More
Vital Farms Founder Sells 25,000 Shares for Approximately $771,300
- Transaction Overview: Vital Farms founder Matthew O'Hayer sold 25,000 shares for approximately $771,300 on January 2, 2026, reducing his direct holdings to 6,361,190 shares, indicating a consistent selling strategy.
- Ownership Proportion Change: This transaction decreased O'Hayer's direct ownership by 0.37%, aligning with his historical selling pattern of 0.31%-0.33%, reflecting a methodical approach to share disposition.
- Market Performance: Despite a drop from the 52-week high, Vital Farms achieved record revenue of $198.9 million in Q3, a 37% year-over-year increase, showcasing strong business growth potential.
- Financial Health: With $145.1 million in cash and no debt at the end of Q3, Vital Farms demonstrates solid financial health, making it an attractive investment opportunity at its current low valuation.
See More
Vital Farms Founder Sells 25,000 Shares for ~$771,300 Amidst Market Fluctuations
- Share Sale: Founder and Executive Chairperson Matthew O'Hayer sold 25,000 shares on January 2, 2026, generating approximately $771,300, reflecting a gradual reduction in his holdings and aligning with his historical pattern of 24,000-share transactions.
- Ownership Status: This sale represented only 0.37% of O'Hayer's direct holdings and 0.0558% of total shares outstanding, indicating he still holds over six million shares, suggesting he is not in a rush to dump stock.
- Financial Performance: Vital Farms achieved record revenue of $198.9 million in Q3 2025, a strong 37% year-over-year increase, with net income more than doubling to $16.4 million, showcasing the company's robust market performance.
- Market Opportunity: Although the stock price has dropped from a 52-week high to $29.82, the company's solid financial position and a low price-to-earnings ratio of about 23 indicate that now is a good time for investors to consider increasing their shareholdings.
See More
Vital Farms CEO to Attend 2026 ICR Conference in Orlando
- Executive Attendance: Vital Farms' CEO Russell Diez-Canseco will participate in the 28th Annual ICR Conference in Orlando on January 12 and 13, 2026, showcasing the company's leadership in the sustainable food sector.
- Investor Engagement: The company will offer 1x1 meeting opportunities during the conference and host a fireside chat at 2:30 PM on January 12, aiming to strengthen communication with investors and enhance market awareness of its brand.
- Brand Influence: As the leading U.S. brand of pasture-raised eggs, Vital Farms collaborates with 575 small farms, with products sold in over 23,500 stores nationwide, further solidifying its position in the sustainable food market.
- Corporate Responsibility: As a Certified B Corporation, Vital Farms emphasizes long-term benefits for farmers, consumers, and the environment, reflecting its commitment to sustainable agriculture and humane treatment of animals.
See More
Analyst Claims Concerns About Costco's Renewal Rates Are Exaggerated; Also Featuring Zillow, Micron Tech, and Other Stocks.
Report Overview: Recent reports from investment and research firms provide insights into analysts' perspectives on various companies.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in these reports do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Barron’s.
Investment Services: Some report issuers may have existing or potential investment-banking relationships with the companies analyzed.
Purpose of Reports: The reports serve as a sampling of analyst thinking rather than definitive investment advice.
See More
