VanEck Semiconductor ETF Hits All-Time High While IGV Software ETF Declines
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 22 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: CNBC
- Strong Semiconductor ETF Performance: The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has surged over 140% in the past nine months, mirroring the recovery seen after the 2020 pandemic lows, which has helped maintain the overall market near its highs.
- Software ETF Continues Decline: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell to its lowest level since April 2025 on Wednesday, breaking below a clear topping pattern, reflecting weakness in the software sector that may impact investor confidence.
- Relative Strength Indicator Hits All-Time Low: The relative strength index (RSI) of IGV versus SMH has dropped to 15, marking a historic low, indicating extreme weakness in the software ETF and potential for a bounce in the near term.
- Significant Market Rotation: The stark contrast between the strong performance of the semiconductor sector and the ongoing decline of the software sector highlights notable internal market rotation, prompting investors to closely monitor future trend changes.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVDA is 264.97 USD with a low forecast of 200.00 USD and a high forecast of 352.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 171.880
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 171.880
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Financial Performance Highlights: Oracle's recent Q2 FY2026 earnings report revealed a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $16.05 billion, with net income soaring 95% to $6.13 billion, including a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain, showcasing its strong growth potential in the cloud computing sector.
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- Oracle's Market Challenges: Oracle, with a market cap of $440 billion, has seen its stock drop over 52% since last September, primarily due to high spending on AI infrastructure and a debt exceeding $100 billion, raising concerns about its financial health among investors.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Oracle's recent Q2 FY2026 earnings report revealed a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $16.05 billion, with net income soaring 95% to $6.13 billion, including a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain, showcasing its strong growth potential in the cloud computing sector.
- Future Growth Expectations: Despite facing debt pressures, Oracle's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at just 19.8, indicating that its stock is at a two-year low, and analysts expect significant revenue growth in the future, potentially providing a good buying opportunity for investors.
See More
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- Strong Debut Performance: Montage Technology's shares surged approximately 60% on their Hong Kong debut, climbing from the offering price of HK$106.89 to HK$171, indicating robust market demand for its high-performance semiconductors and reinforcing its position in the cloud computing and AI sectors.
- Significant Fundraising: The IPO raised $902 million, reflecting strong investor interest in Chinese AI and semiconductor firms, particularly as the public tranche was oversubscribed by more than 700 times and the international offering was nearly 38 times covered.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite Montage's successful listing, competition is heating up, with Huawei and its chip unit HiSilicon holding a leading share of the domestic market, suggesting that the push for self-sufficiency will lead to fiercer rivalry within the industry.
- Evolving Policy Landscape: As the Chinese government intensifies efforts for self-sufficiency in advanced chips, the recent approval for Nvidia's H200 imports under specific conditions highlights the uncertainty in policy that could impact market dynamics.
See More
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- Significant Export Growth: Taiwan's exports surged by 69.9% year-on-year in January, reaching $65.77 billion, exceeding the market expectation of 51.9% and setting a new monthly record, indicating robust international demand, particularly for chips and technology products.
- Sustained Growth Momentum: The island has achieved 27 consecutive months of year-on-year export growth, reflecting Taiwan's resilience and competitiveness amid strong global demand for semiconductors and AI applications.
- Surge in Exports to the U.S.: Exports to the United States skyrocketed by 151.8% in January to $21.28 billion, highlighting Taiwan's critical role in the global supply chain and benefiting from the U.S. tariff reduction on Taiwanese goods.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The finance ministry expects exports to rise between 20% and 27% year-on-year in February, despite the Lunar New Year holiday affecting working days, indicating Taiwan's continued strong performance in the global market.
See More
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- Palantir Financial Performance: Palantir Technologies reported a 70% revenue increase in Q4, reaching $1.4 billion, marking its tenth consecutive acceleration, while non-GAAP net income surged 79% to $0.25 per share, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector.
- Valuation Challenges: Despite Palantir's high P/E ratio of 214 and projected earnings growth of 45% annually over the next three years, the current valuation raises caution among investors, as the stock could face a potential 50% drop in the future.
- Comfort Systems Business Advantage: Comfort Systems operates over 50 subsidiaries in HVAC and electrical services, serving diverse industries such as healthcare, manufacturing, and technology, with its modular construction capabilities significantly reducing time and costs, enhancing market competitiveness.
- Strong Financial Growth: Comfort Systems reported a 35% revenue increase to $2.4 billion in Q3, with GAAP net income rising 101% to $8.25 per share, and a 66% increase in revenue backlog, indicating robust future sales growth.
See More
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- Hedge Fund Accumulation: Billionaires Ken Griffin and Cliff Asness increased their stakes in Palantir Technologies during Q3, a stock that has surged 2,000% since January 2023, indicating robust market demand and investor confidence.
- Strong Performance of Comfort Systems: Israel Englander and Steven Cohen also bought shares of Comfort Systems in Q3, which has seen a 970% increase in stock price since January 2023, reflecting strong growth potential in the HVAC and data center cooling systems market.
- Palantir's Impressive Financials: Palantir reported a 70% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.4 billion in Q4, with non-GAAP net income soaring 79% to $0.25 per share, showcasing its strong performance and market leadership in the AI software sector.
- Future Outlook for Comfort Systems: Comfort Systems achieved a 35% revenue increase to $2.4 billion in Q3, with a 3 percentage point expansion in operating margin and a 66% rise in revenue backlog, indicating significant future sales growth potential with an expected annual growth rate of 39% over the next three years.
See More
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- Market Pullback Impact: AI stocks experienced a brief 10% pullback in early 2026, yet they remain near recent highs, indicating sustained market interest and potential in this sector.
- ETF Investment Opportunity: The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (NASDAQ: AIQ) invests across the AI ecosystem, with 28% allocated to non-tech companies, enhancing its resilience in the current macroeconomic environment.
- Capital Expenditure Growth: As companies like Meta increase AI capital expenditures, the scope of AI investment is broadening, providing strong growth opportunities for the ETF's diversified portfolio, which is expected to drive future performance.
- Interest Rate Expectations: The market is pricing in two potential interest rate cuts in 2026, which would support growth in AI-related stocks and improve financials, thereby boosting investor confidence.
See More
