Vale Reports 2.6% Increase in 2025 Iron Ore Production
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 28 2026
0mins
Should l Buy VALE?
Source: seekingalpha
- Production Growth: Vale (VALE) reported a 2.6% year-over-year increase in 2025 iron ore production to 336.1 million metric tons, surpassing rival Rio Tinto's (RIO) output for the first time since 2018, indicating a significant recovery in the company's operations.
- Quarterly Performance: In Q4, Vale's iron ore production rose 6% year-over-year to 90.4 million tons, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu mine and the ongoing ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects, showcasing the company's positive progress in capacity recovery.
- Copper and Nickel Production: Q4 copper production increased by 6% to 108.1 thousand tons, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018, reflecting record production levels at the Salobo mine, while nickel production rose by 2% to 46.2 thousand tons, further enhancing the company's metal production capabilities.
- Industry Competition: Vale lost its position as the world's largest iron ore producer in 2019 due to the Brumadinho dam collapse, and this production rebound not only boosts market confidence but also lays a solid foundation for the company's future growth.
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Analyst Views on VALE
Wall Street analysts forecast VALE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VALE is 13.93 USD with a low forecast of 12.00 USD and a high forecast of 15.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 16.280
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
Current: 16.280
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
About VALE
Vale SA, formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, is a Brazil-based metal and mining company which is primarily engaged in producing iron ore and nickel. The Company also produces iron ore pellets, copper, platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, silver and cobalt. Vale is engaged in greenfield mineral exploration in five countries and operates logistics systems in Brazil and other regions in the world, including railroads, maritime terminals and ports, which are integrated with mining operations. In addition, Vale has distribution centers to support the delivery of iron ore worldwide. Vale has numerous subsidiaries, including Vale Logistica Uruguay SA, Vale Holdings BV, Vale Overseas Ltd. The Company’s operations abroad cover approximately 30 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Quarterly Performance: In Q4, Vale's iron ore production rose 6% year-over-year to 90.4 million tons, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu mine and the ongoing ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects, showcasing the company's positive progress in capacity recovery.
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- Production Growth: Vale (VALE) reported a 2.6% year-over-year increase in 2025 iron ore production to 336.1 million metric tons, surpassing rival Rio Tinto's (RIO) output for the first time since 2018, indicating a significant recovery in the company's operations.
- Quarterly Performance: In Q4, Vale's iron ore production rose 6% year-over-year to 90.4 million tons, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu mine and the ongoing ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects, showcasing the company's positive progress in capacity recovery.
- Copper and Nickel Production: Q4 copper production increased by 6% to 108.1 thousand tons, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018, reflecting record production levels at the Salobo mine, while nickel production rose by 2% to 46.2 thousand tons, further enhancing the company's metal production capabilities.
- Industry Competition: Vale lost its position as the world's largest iron ore producer in 2019 due to the Brumadinho dam collapse, and this production rebound not only boosts market confidence but also lays a solid foundation for the company's future growth.
See More
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- Operational Halt: Vale has suspended operations at its Fabrica and Viga units in Brazil due to water overflow, which together contribute approximately 8 million tons to the company's iron ore production outlook, representing about 2% of this year's forecast.
- Regulatory Actions: The city of Congonhas has ordered the suspension of operating permits for these units and the implementation of emergency measures, although Vale has reaffirmed its FY 2026 iron ore production guidance of 335 million to 345 million metric tons.
- Short-term Stock Pressure: Analysts indicate that while the incident may negatively impact Vale's short-term share performance, this is primarily due to
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- Production Impact Assessment: While Vale stated that its production would not be affected, nearby Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) faced flooding of its facilities due to tailing water, posing risks of production disruptions and reflecting potential ripple effects within the industry.
- Local Government Concerns: The municipal government of Congonhas reported that Vale's slurry reached local streams, highlighting environmental pollution risks that could trigger stricter regulatory scrutiny and impact the company's future operations.
- Ongoing Safety Monitoring: Vale confirmed that the incident does not involve a dam and that all dams in the region remain stable and under continuous monitoring; however, the past Brumadinho dam collapse still affects public confidence in the company's safety measures.
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