U.S. Housing Affordability Reaches Levels Not Seen Since the 2008 Crisis – Insights from Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello
Current Affordability Crisis: The U.S. housing market faces a significant affordability crisis, with a 57% gap between median household income and the income needed to buy a median-priced home, requiring households to spend 47% of their income on housing.
Price Growth Trends: Home prices have surged by over 53% in the last five years, far exceeding wage growth, with cities like Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte experiencing increases of up to 80.5%.
Historical Context: Current home prices are 118% above inflation, a stark contrast to historical trends where prices rarely outpaced inflation by more than 30%, raising concerns about potential market corrections similar to those seen during the 2007-2011 period.
Future Projections: Experts predict that home price appreciation will align more closely with inflation rates moving forward, which could help address the affordability gap, although the timing and specifics of this correction remain uncertain.
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- Current Housing Market Status: The housing market last spring experienced an unseasonably cool period.
- Investor Focus: Investors are closely monitoring earnings reports from one of the nation's largest home builders.
- Buyer Activity: There is anticipation regarding the potential return of buyers to the housing market.
- Market Trends: The earnings reports may provide insights into future trends in buyer activity and market recovery.

- Housing Stocks Reaction: Housing industry stocks rose following President Trump's speech in Davos.
- Lack of Surprises: The speech contained few surprises regarding housing policy, indicating stability in the sector.
Home Builder Stocks Performance: Home builder stocks are currently outperforming the S&P 500, indicating optimism for a potential housing market recovery.
Impact of U.S. Policy Changes: Despite the positive performance, changes in U.S. policy could hinder the ongoing rally in the housing market.
Home Builder Stocks Performance: Home builder stocks are currently outperforming the S&P 500, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market.
Impact of U.S. Policy Changes: However, changes in U.S. policies could hinder the ongoing rally in home builder stocks.
- Housing Policy Focus: The Trump administration is considering a housing policy that may favor certain home builders while disadvantaging others.
- Interview Insights: Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, shared these insights during an interview with Barron’s.
- Positive Outlook for Home Builders: Home builder stocks are showing a promising start to the year, indicating potential growth in the sector.
- Expectations for 2026: There are several factors suggesting that the housing market will improve significantly by 2026.









