Upcoming Week Worldwide: Europe in Crisis
Trump's Criticism of Europe: President Donald Trump described Europe as a "decaying" group led by "weak" leaders, adding pressure on European leaders facing multiple challenges, including military support for Ukraine and internal tensions with the U.S.
Upcoming EU Summit and Military Support: A critical summit in Brussels will focus on enhancing military capabilities and funding for Ukraine, including discussions on utilizing frozen Russian assets to support a significant loan to Kyiv.
Big Tech Tensions: The EU faces criticism from the Trump administration regarding its regulatory actions against American tech companies, with ongoing investigations and fines against firms like X and Google, while Meta seeks to avoid further penalties.
European Central Bank Outlook: The ECB is expected to maintain its interest rates at 2% during its final policy meeting of the year, with positive growth forecasts indicating a stable economic outlook for the region.
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- AI Budget Surge: Meta plans to increase its capital expenditures to $135 billion in 2026, an 87% rise from last year, aimed at supporting its AI Superintelligence team, which is expected to drive future technological innovation and market competitiveness.
- Profitability Pressure: As capital expenditures rise, Meta's depreciation expenses increased by 20% in 2025 and are expected to rise further in 2026, leading to a decline in operating margin from 48% in Q4 2024 to 41%, although management still anticipates overall operating income growth.
- AI-Driven Revenue Growth: Meta achieved a 24% revenue growth in Q4, driven by increased user engagement and stable ad price hikes, demonstrating its effectiveness in AI applications and market potential.
- Generative AI Potential: Meta is planning to leverage generative AI to attract more advertisers, combining personalized content and shopping agent features, which is expected to generate substantial ad revenue and further solidify its market position.
- Market Volatility Intensifies: Last week, Big Tech stocks saw over $1 trillion wiped from their market caps, creating a tense market atmosphere, with Oracle and Microsoft rising 1.6% and 0.8% respectively, while Meta and Amazon struggled, reflecting investor concerns over future expenditures.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta reported a combined capital expenditure of approximately $120 billion in Q4, with projections nearing $700 billion by 2026, surpassing the GDP of countries like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel, highlighting a strong investment demand for AI infrastructure.
- Cloud Growth Potential: Despite negative market reactions to Amazon and Alphabet's capex guidance exceeding expectations, analysts believe robust cloud growth will continue to drive stock prices, especially amid accelerating data center demand.
- Increased Management Confidence: In the face of macroeconomic pressures, Bank of America analysts noted that management teams are increasingly confident in their demand forecasts, anticipating full capacity utilization by 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry.
- Market Volatility Impact: Following a week where over $1 trillion was wiped from market caps, Big Tech stocks showed flat performance in premarket trading on Monday, indicating market uncertainty, particularly with rising capital expenditure plans in the AI sector.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta reported a combined capital expenditure of approximately $120 billion in Q4, with projections soaring to $660 billion by 2026, surpassing the GDP of countries like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel, reflecting strong industry confidence in AI investments.
- Divergent Stock Performance: As of 6:12 a.m. ET, Oracle rose 1.5% and Microsoft edged up 0.8%, while Meta and Amazon fell 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, showcasing varied performances among stocks amidst overall market weakness, which could influence investor decisions.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Despite growing margins for cloud companies, analysts warn of potential stock volatility due to macroeconomic pressures; however, management's confidence in demand forecasting may lead to full capacity utilization by 2026, providing some reassurance to investors.
- Antitrust Preliminary Findings: The European Commission has issued a statement of objections to Meta, preliminarily concluding that the company's exclusion of third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp violates EU antitrust rules, potentially harming market competition and stifling the growth of other AI companies.
- Policy Change Impact: Since January 15, 2025, WhatsApp has only allowed Meta's own AI assistant, effectively banning competitors, which the EU regulator believes could cause serious and irreparable harm to the market, necessitating interim measures to protect competition.
- Market Dominance: The Commission tentatively concludes that Meta is likely to hold a dominant position in the consumer communication applications market within the European Economic Area, with WhatsApp seen as a crucial entry point, and restricting access for third-party AI assistants could further raise barriers to market entry.
- Urgent Protective Measures: The Commission emphasizes the urgent need for protective measures due to the risk of Meta's actions marginalizing smaller competitors, aiming to ensure that rivals can continue to access WhatsApp during the ongoing investigation to maintain effective competition.
- Child Protection Initiative: Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš expressed support for a ban on social media for children under 15, emphasizing that experts believe social media is extremely harmful to children, aiming to protect their mental health.
- Legislative Plans: Deputy Prime Minister Karel Havlíček indicated that the government is seriously considering this ban, and if decided, legislation will be proposed this year, demonstrating the government's commitment to child protection.
- Global Trend: Numerous countries worldwide are contemplating restrictions on children's access to social media, with Australia being the first to implement a ban for those under 16, while Spain, Greece, and Denmark have proposed similar measures, reflecting widespread concern for children's mental health.
- Legislative Progress: France's National Assembly has passed a bill banning social media for children under 15, which will now head to the upper house for consideration, further advancing the movement for social media restrictions across Europe.
- Tesla Position Change: Peter Thiel reduced his Tesla holdings by 76% in Q3 2025, yet it remains the largest position in his portfolio, indicating ongoing confidence in the electric vehicle market despite skepticism towards Musk's humanoid robot strategy.
- Microsoft Investment Increase: Thiel purchased 49,000 shares of Microsoft in Q3, elevating it to the second-largest holding at 34% of his total portfolio, reflecting his optimism about Microsoft's cloud services and AI integration, even as the company faces growth slowdowns.
- New Investment in Apple: Thiel initiated a new position in Apple by acquiring over 79,000 shares in Q3, suggesting he sees potential in Apple's AI capabilities, particularly its vast iPhone sales network and upcoming AI-powered smart glasses.
- AI Stock Selection: Although Thiel's hedge fund holds only three AI stocks, his choices of Microsoft and Apple demonstrate a preference for technology builders, indicating a belief that these companies will play a more significant role in future technological revolutions.











