UBS: Premature to Declare Stabilization in China's Property Market; New Home Sales Continue to Struggle
Market Reaction: Chinese developers saw an average increase of 8% due to reports of a potential relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy and a recovery in second-hand home transactions, alongside stable home prices in major cities.
Caution on Stability: UBS cautioned that it is premature to declare the market stabilized, emphasizing the need for further observation of actual trading data post-Chinese New Year.
Sentiment vs. Reality: The recent uptick in second-hand property transactions is viewed as a reaction to policy shifts rather than a sign of genuine market recovery, supported by the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance.
Weak New Home Sales: Despite the positive sentiment, new home sales remain weak, indicating ongoing challenges in the Chinese property market.
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Market Reaction: Chinese developers saw an average increase of 8% due to reports of a potential relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy and a recovery in second-hand home transactions, alongside stable home prices in major cities.
Caution on Stability: UBS cautioned that it is premature to declare the market stabilized, emphasizing the need for further observation of actual trading data post-Chinese New Year.
Sentiment vs. Reality: The recent uptick in second-hand property transactions is viewed as a reaction to policy shifts rather than a sign of genuine market recovery, supported by the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance.
Weak New Home Sales: Despite the positive sentiment, new home sales remain weak, indicating ongoing challenges in the Chinese property market.

Top Inflows: Guosen Securities reported the top ten Hong Kong stocks with the largest foreign capital inflows in 4Q25, led by INNOVENT BIO with an inflow of HKD6.43 billion.
Top Outflows: The report also highlighted the top ten stocks with the largest foreign capital outflows, with XIAOMI-W experiencing the highest outflow of HKD50.41 billion.
Short Selling Data: The report included short selling data for each stock, indicating significant short selling activity, particularly for XIAOMI-W and HSBC HOLDINGS.
Market Trends: The report reflects ongoing trends in the Hong Kong stock market, with notable shifts in foreign investment and short selling strategies among major companies.

Stock Performance: Several stocks showed positive movements, with BABA-W increasing by 3.5% and ALI HEALTH by 3.3%, while BIDU-SW and JD HEALTH experienced declines of 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
Short Selling Data: Notable short selling activity was observed, particularly in BIDU-SW with a ratio of 28.7% and ALI HEALTH at 25.4%, indicating significant market interest in these stocks.

UBS Research Report: UBS reassessed BEKE-W (02423.HK), noting a decline in market share in China's major cities, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous quarters.
Market Trends: The physical market remains weak, with home prices in major cities dropping by 1.7% month-over-month in November, prompting a moderate policy response from the Central Economic Work Conference.
Earnings Forecasts: UBS lowered its earnings forecasts for BEKE-W for 2026-2027 by 4-5% due to reduced revenue expectations.
Target Price Adjustments: UBS cut its target price for BEKE-W's US stock from $19 to $18 and for its H-shares from $48 to $47.5, maintaining a Neutral rating.

BEKE-W Stock Performance: BEKE-W (02423.HK) experienced a decline of 4.34%, settling at HK$42.8 after hitting a low of HK$42.3, with a turnover of HK$209 million.
Peng Yongdong's Share Sale: Peng Yongdong, co-founder and CEO of Beike, sold shares to meet a donation commitment, marking his first sale since the company's US listing in 2020.
China Vanke's Investment Update: CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) announced that it has sold all its shares in Beike, responding to investor inquiries.
Short Selling Data: BEKE-W had significant short selling activity, with a ratio of 25.239% and a total of $52.78 million in short sales.
CHINA VANKE's Share Sale: CHINA VANKE has confirmed it sold all its shares in KE Holdings but did not provide details on the timing or financial outcomes of the sale.
Short Selling Activity: The company is experiencing significant short selling, with a reported $19 million in short sales and a ratio of 21.309%.






