UBS Expects Low Single-Digit Decline in Wealth Management NII in Q1 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4d ago
0mins
Should l Buy UBS?
The company said, "Entering the first quarter of 2026, the macro backdrop is still one of steady global growth and easing inflation. Market conditions remain largely constructive, with broader equity dispersion and rotation supporting client engagement, healthy transactional and capital markets activity, and pipeline. Demand remains focused on diversification across geographies and asset classes, as well as principal protection. However, continued elevated geopolitical and economic policy uncertainties mean sentiment and positioning can shift quickly, leading to spikes in volatility influencing institutional and corporate client activity levels. In the first quarter, we expect a low single-digit percentage decline in Global Wealth Management's net interest income, while in Personal & Corporate Banking NII is expected to remain broadly stable in US dollar terms. We remain on track to complete the integration by the end of the year, and we are confident in our ability to achieve our financial targets. As all of 2026 is required to deliver on the remaining integration milestones, we expect net saves to build progressively with a greater proportion weighted to the second half of the year. We remain firmly focused on disciplined execution, bringing the full power of UBS to our clients and investing to sustain growth momentum, supporting continued value creation in the years ahead."
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Analyst Views on UBS
Wall Street analysts forecast UBS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UBS is 45.75 USD with a low forecast of 37.61 USD and a high forecast of 60.17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
2 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.770
Low
37.61
Averages
45.75
High
60.17
Current: 43.770
Low
37.61
Averages
45.75
High
60.17
About UBS
UBS Group AG is a Switzerland-based holding company and conducts its operations through UBS AG and its subsidiaries. The company operates as a wealth manager with focused asset management and investment banking capabilities and a capital-light and cash-generative business model. The Company comprises four business divisions: Global Wealth Management, which provides tailored advice and solutions to its clients around the globe; Personal & Corporate Banking division provides comprehensive financial products and services to private, corporate and institutional clients in Switzerland; Asset Management division offers investment capabilities and styles across all traditional and alternative asset classes, as well as advisory support to institutions; Investment Bank provides investment advice, financial solutions and capital markets access to institutional, corporate and wealth management clients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Expected earnings per share are projected to rise by 24% to $3.11, yet the downgrade in future earnings estimates indicates a clear shift to negative sentiment in the market, impacting investor confidence.
- Industry Comparison: UBS Group's revenue growth forecast is below the industry average, with an expected annual growth rate of 4.1%, significantly lower than the historical 9.2% over the past five years, highlighting a decline in its competitive position within the industry.
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- Financial Performance: UBS Group reported 2023 revenues of $49 billion and earnings per share of $2.31, which, while in line with analyst expectations, led to a 7% drop in share price over the past week, indicating a negative market reaction.
- Future Expectations: Analysts forecast revenues of $51.1 billion in 2026, reflecting a 4.1% growth rate, but this is a downgrade from the previous expectation of $51.9 billion, suggesting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
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- Stock Price Decline: Following the disappointing earnings report, BellRing's stock fell nearly 21% over the past week, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance, particularly in a highly competitive environment.
- Guidance Adjustment: The company revised its sales forecast for FY2026 downwards, now projecting net sales between $2.41 billion and $2.46 billion, while also adjusting its EBITDA outlook to between $425 million and $440 million, demonstrating a cautious stance on future performance.
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