Trump Nominates Warsh as Fed Chair, Signaling Shift in Monetary Policy
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6d ago
0mins
Should l Buy EL?
Source: CNBC
- New Fed Chair: Trump has nominated former Fed governor Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction, as Warsh, who supported higher interest rates in 2007, now favors rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.
- Economic Context: Warsh believes that the ongoing construction of data centers will lead to a productivity boom, which is expected to drive job growth, even though completed data centers require fewer human workers.
- Critique of Current Policies: In a recent interview, Warsh criticized Powell for adhering to outdated economic models, arguing that current economic growth should not be viewed as inflationary but rather as the beginning of a structural decline in prices.
- Discussion on Fed Independence: Warsh emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy but also noted that the Fed should not engage in issues unrelated to its dual mandate, such as climate change and diversity, reflecting concerns about current policy directions.
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Analyst Views on EL
Wall Street analysts forecast EL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EL is 106.76 USD with a low forecast of 70.00 USD and a high forecast of 130.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 96.660
Low
70.00
Averages
106.76
High
130.00
Current: 96.660
Low
70.00
Averages
106.76
High
130.00
About EL
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is a manufacturer, marketer and seller of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. Its product categories include skin care, makeup, fragrance, hair care and others. Its products are sold in approximately 150 countries and territories under a number of brand names, including Estee Lauder, Aramis, Clinique, Lab Series, Origins, M.A.C, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, Bumble and bumble, Darphin Paris, TOM FORD, Smashbox, AERIN Beauty, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frederic Malle, GLAMGLOW, Kilian Paris, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, and the DECIEM family of brands, including The Ordinary and NIOD. It is a licensee for fragrances, cosmetics and/or related products for AERIN, BALMAIN, and Dr. Andrew Weil. Its skin care products include moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, exfoliators, facial masks, body care, sun care products and others. Its makeup products include lipsticks, lip glosses, mascaras, foundations and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Sales Growth: The company achieved quarterly sales of $4.229 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the Street's forecast of $4.219 billion, demonstrating its competitive strength in the premium beauty market.
- Upgraded Outlook: Estee Lauder raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $2.03-$2.23 per share from $1.90-$2.10, and increased its sales forecast to $14.756 billion–$15.042 billion, reflecting confidence in future growth.
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- Bitcoin Recovery: Bitcoin rebounded over 7% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and alleviating concerns about liquidity in the crypto market, indicating renewed investor interest in digital assets.
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- Sales Environment Recovery: While an incremental headwind is expected in fiscal Q3 2026 due to the Asia travel retail transition, Falorni believes this will be transitory, and many key markets and channels are showing signs of sales environment improvement, indicating a recovery.
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- Competition and Market Strategy: During the pandemic, Estée Lauder's travel retail business was severely impacted, dropping to 15% of its business in FY25; the company is stabilizing and repositioning itself by launching on Amazon and TikTok Shop while adopting a consumer-first strategy aimed at accelerating innovation.
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- Overview of Ratings Update: While specific upgrades or downgrades are not detailed, such changes in analyst ratings typically have a direct impact on stock prices, prompting investors to stay alert for further developments.
- Expected Market Reaction: The adjustments in analyst ratings may lead to short-term volatility in ROKU stock, and investors should consider the significance of these changes in their investment strategies to make informed decisions.
- Source Information: This rating change information is provided by Benzinga, highlighting the critical role analysts play in the market and their potential impact on investor decision-making.
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- Strong Earnings Report: Estee Lauder reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.89 for Q2, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.83, indicating robust demand across regions and categories within its prestige beauty portfolio.
- Sales Growth: The company achieved quarterly sales of $4.229 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the Street's forecast of $4.219 billion, demonstrating its competitive strength in the premium beauty market.
- Upgraded Outlook: Estee Lauder raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $2.03-$2.23 per share from $1.90-$2.10, and increased its sales forecast to $14.756 billion–$15.042 billion, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the earnings announcement, Estee Lauder's shares rose 5.1% to $101.59, indicating market optimism regarding the company's performance and outlook, despite some analysts lowering their price targets.
See More
US Stocks Surge, Dow Hits All-Time High
- Dow Hits Record High: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.47% to reach an all-time high, reflecting market optimism about economic recovery, particularly amid strong rebounds in tech and chipmaker stocks.
- Consumer Confidence Rises: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly increased to 57.3, surpassing expectations of 55.0, indicating enhanced consumer confidence that could drive future spending.
- Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin surged over 11% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and signaling renewed investor interest and confidence in crypto assets.
- Strong Corporate Earnings: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, with S&P earnings growth projected at 8.4% for Q4, providing robust support for the market and indicating ongoing improvement in corporate profitability.
See More
U.S. Stocks Surge as Tech Earnings Boost Market Sentiment
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 Index rose by 1.10%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.60%, reaching an all-time high, reflecting positive market sentiment driven by strong tech earnings results.
- Tech Stock Recovery: Gen Digital and Roblox surged over 7% and 9%, respectively, after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS and bookings above consensus, indicating a robust recovery in the tech sector that may attract more investment.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 57.3, a six-month high, surpassing expectations of 55.0, reflecting optimistic consumer sentiment about the economic outlook, which supports further market gains.
- Inflation Expectations Shift: While short-term inflation expectations fell, long-term expectations ticked up slightly, indicating market concerns regarding the Fed's monetary policy, which could influence future investment decisions and market volatility.
See More
U.S. Stocks Surge as Tech Earnings Boost Market Sentiment
- Tech Stock Rebound: The S&P 500 rose by 1.20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.48%, reaching an all-time high, driven by better-than-expected tech earnings that boosted investor confidence in the sector's recovery.
- Bitcoin Recovery: Bitcoin rebounded over 7% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and alleviating concerns about liquidity in the crypto market, indicating renewed investor interest in digital assets.
- Amazon Investment Concerns: Amazon's announcement of a $200 billion investment in data centers, chips, and other equipment led to a more than 9% drop in its stock, raising doubts about the long-term returns of its AI investments and potentially impacting future investor confidence.
- Earnings Season Insights: With 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations and Q4 earnings projected to grow by 8.4%, this indicates strong corporate profitability, which may provide ongoing support for the market despite economic uncertainties.
See More
Estée Lauder's Soft FY26 Guidance Triggers Selloff, Yet Analysts See Buying Opportunity
- Buying Opportunity Emerges: Citi Research analyst Filippo Falorni highlights that despite Estée Lauder's soft FY26 guidance leading to a selloff, the company's Beauty Reimagined strategy and improvements in its Chinese business present a buying opportunity, reflecting an improving fundamental outlook.
- Sales Environment Recovery: While an incremental headwind is expected in fiscal Q3 2026 due to the Asia travel retail transition, Falorni believes this will be transitory, and many key markets and channels are showing signs of sales environment improvement, indicating a recovery.
- Earnings Expectations and Market Reaction: Estée Lauder's FQ2 profit exceeded expectations, but a 5.8% revenue gain fell short, and the full-year guidance disappointed, causing shares to drop as much as 24% on Thursday, reflecting high investor expectations for a significant beat.
- Competition and Market Strategy: During the pandemic, Estée Lauder's travel retail business was severely impacted, dropping to 15% of its business in FY25; the company is stabilizing and repositioning itself by launching on Amazon and TikTok Shop while adopting a consumer-first strategy aimed at accelerating innovation.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust ROKU Ratings
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their outlook on ROKU stock, reflecting varying market perceptions that could influence investor decisions and market sentiment.
- Overview of Ratings Update: While specific upgrades or downgrades are not detailed, such changes in analyst ratings typically have a direct impact on stock prices, prompting investors to stay alert for further developments.
- Expected Market Reaction: The adjustments in analyst ratings may lead to short-term volatility in ROKU stock, and investors should consider the significance of these changes in their investment strategies to make informed decisions.
- Source Information: This rating change information is provided by Benzinga, highlighting the critical role analysts play in the market and their potential impact on investor decision-making.
See More
