This Uncommon Signal Last Appeared in 1998—Subsequently, Stocks Soared
Bond Market Signal: A rare bond market signal has emerged in mid-August 2025, reminiscent of conditions before a significant bull market in the late 1990s, indicating strong investor confidence in corporate debt.
Narrowing Credit Spreads: The spread between U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasury yields has fallen to 75 basis points, suggesting that investors are willing to accept minimal risk premiums for corporate debt compared to government securities.
Broad-Based Credit Rally: Unlike the narrow equity rally dominated by a few tech giants, the investment-grade credit market is experiencing broad participation, with nearly all sectors benefiting from the tightening spreads.
Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts that as long as recession risks remain low, corporate credit spreads may stay tight, reflecting growing confidence in the overall health of the corporate sector, similar to patterns observed prior to previous market rallies.
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US Treasury Yields Decline: 10-Year Down 3 Basis Points, 2-Year Down 2.4 Basis Points
Treasury Yield Decline: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has decreased by 3 basis points.
Short-Term Treasury Yield Drop: The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury has fallen by 2.4 basis points.
US Government Shutdown Concludes After House Passes Funding Legislation: Report
Government Funding Bill: President Donald Trump announced he would sign a bill to grant full-year funding for the federal government, effectively ending a partial government shutdown that began over the weekend.
DHS Funding Extension: The Department of Homeland Security received a funding extension only through February 13, while the House of Representatives approved a funding package to avoid a prolonged shutdown.
Democratic Proposals: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated that Democrats are planning to present a detailed proposal on reforms for the Department of Homeland Security soon.
Market Impact: The partial shutdown has already affected key data releases, including the January jobs report, and has led to declines in major stock indices, reflecting negative retail sentiment.
Silver Prices Surge Once More: Reasons the Upsurge Might Be Temporary.
Silver's Recovery: Silver is experiencing a significant recovery, outperforming gold, stocks, Treasuries, and Bitcoin.
Investor Caution: Investors are advised to consider silver's historical performance before investing in the current rally.
Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Thinks Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is Positive for Wall Street, Yet Trump Tariffs Could Still Be Unpredictable
Nomination of Kevin Warsh: Economist Jeremy Siegel views the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a significant upgrade for the Federal Reserve, believing it will positively impact both bonds and equities by maintaining a tough stance on inflation.
Concerns about Warsh's Hawkishness: Siegel acknowledges investor concerns regarding Warsh's hawkish tendencies, suggesting that while he supports a gradual reduction of the Fed's mortgage-backed securities, it should not be done too quickly.
Constructive Outlook for Equities: Siegel expresses a constructive outlook for equity markets, despite uncertainties surrounding changes at the Fed and government shutdown risks, highlighting recent performance disparities between Meta and Microsoft shares.
AI and Capital Spending Trends: Siegel predicts that 2023 will be the year of AI users, with capital spending continuing to rise as firms leverage AI to enhance productivity, contrasting with those merely selling traditional products.
Despite Significant Developments in 2026, Treasuries Remain Relatively Unchanged.
Market Performance: Despite significant geopolitical events and news, the Treasury market has shown minimal movement, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) yielding almost no returns in January.
Geopolitical Events: President Donald Trump made headlines with actions against Venezuela, threats towards Iran, and a controversial stance on Greenland, yet these did not impact Treasury yields significantly.
US Government Shutdown Expected to Postpone January Employment Report
Partial Government Shutdown: The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown on January 31, 2026, due to a funding deadline lapse for the 2026 budget without Congressional approval, impacting key reports scheduled for release this week.
Delayed Reports: Key reports, including the latest jobs report and labor turnover survey, will be delayed due to the shutdown, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics not releasing the January jobs report as planned.
Funding Negotiations: The Senate has voted to extend funding, but the measure must still pass the House, which is scheduled to return on Monday to address the issue and avoid a prolonged shutdown.
Market Reactions: Despite the shutdown, U.S. equities saw gains, with various ETFs tracking major indices rising, while retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF remained bearish.
US Treasury Yields Decline: 10-Year Down 3 Basis Points, 2-Year Down 2.4 Basis Points
Treasury Yield Decline: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has decreased by 3 basis points.
Short-Term Treasury Yield Drop: The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury has fallen by 2.4 basis points.
US Government Shutdown Concludes After House Passes Funding Legislation: Report
Government Funding Bill: President Donald Trump announced he would sign a bill to grant full-year funding for the federal government, effectively ending a partial government shutdown that began over the weekend.
DHS Funding Extension: The Department of Homeland Security received a funding extension only through February 13, while the House of Representatives approved a funding package to avoid a prolonged shutdown.
Democratic Proposals: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated that Democrats are planning to present a detailed proposal on reforms for the Department of Homeland Security soon.
Market Impact: The partial shutdown has already affected key data releases, including the January jobs report, and has led to declines in major stock indices, reflecting negative retail sentiment.
Silver Prices Surge Once More: Reasons the Upsurge Might Be Temporary.
Silver's Recovery: Silver is experiencing a significant recovery, outperforming gold, stocks, Treasuries, and Bitcoin.
Investor Caution: Investors are advised to consider silver's historical performance before investing in the current rally.
Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Thinks Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is Positive for Wall Street, Yet Trump Tariffs Could Still Be Unpredictable
Nomination of Kevin Warsh: Economist Jeremy Siegel views the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a significant upgrade for the Federal Reserve, believing it will positively impact both bonds and equities by maintaining a tough stance on inflation.
Concerns about Warsh's Hawkishness: Siegel acknowledges investor concerns regarding Warsh's hawkish tendencies, suggesting that while he supports a gradual reduction of the Fed's mortgage-backed securities, it should not be done too quickly.
Constructive Outlook for Equities: Siegel expresses a constructive outlook for equity markets, despite uncertainties surrounding changes at the Fed and government shutdown risks, highlighting recent performance disparities between Meta and Microsoft shares.
AI and Capital Spending Trends: Siegel predicts that 2023 will be the year of AI users, with capital spending continuing to rise as firms leverage AI to enhance productivity, contrasting with those merely selling traditional products.
Despite Significant Developments in 2026, Treasuries Remain Relatively Unchanged.
Market Performance: Despite significant geopolitical events and news, the Treasury market has shown minimal movement, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) yielding almost no returns in January.
Geopolitical Events: President Donald Trump made headlines with actions against Venezuela, threats towards Iran, and a controversial stance on Greenland, yet these did not impact Treasury yields significantly.
US Government Shutdown Expected to Postpone January Employment Report
Partial Government Shutdown: The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown on January 31, 2026, due to a funding deadline lapse for the 2026 budget without Congressional approval, impacting key reports scheduled for release this week.
Delayed Reports: Key reports, including the latest jobs report and labor turnover survey, will be delayed due to the shutdown, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics not releasing the January jobs report as planned.
Funding Negotiations: The Senate has voted to extend funding, but the measure must still pass the House, which is scheduled to return on Monday to address the issue and avoid a prolonged shutdown.
Market Reactions: Despite the shutdown, U.S. equities saw gains, with various ETFs tracking major indices rising, while retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF remained bearish.
