The Importance of Medicare Price Negotiations for Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, and Other European Pharmaceutical Firms
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 26 2025
0mins
Source: CNBC
Drug Pricing Pressure: The pharmaceutical sector is facing increased pricing pressure due to the Inflation Reduction Act, which allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices, alongside President Trump's push for lower medicine costs.
Impact on Companies: Major pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, and GSK are adjusting to these changes, with significant discounts announced for blockbuster drugs, leading to concerns about the impact on sales and patient access.
Market Dynamics: The U.S. remains a crucial market for large-cap pharma, with a significant portion of sales coming from there, despite the higher prices compared to other wealthy countries.
Future Negotiations: While the current price negotiations are becoming more predictable, companies are wary of potential future changes under Trump's Most Favored Nation policy, which could further affect pricing strategies.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NVO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVO is 54.67 USD with a low forecast of 42.00 USD and a high forecast of 70.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.340
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 43.340
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Novo Nordisk Expects Earnings Decline in 2026
- Earnings Guidance Decline: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report revealed a grim outlook for 2026, with sales and earnings expected to decline between 5% and 13%, primarily due to lower GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S., indicating significant market pressures and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Surge in GLP-1 Demand: Despite these challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, far exceeding management's expectations, highlighting the potential growth opportunities in the weight-loss drug market.
- Increased Market Acceptance: The preference for oral medications over injections among consumers suggests that Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill could tap into a larger market, and the pricing agreement with the U.S. government further boosts demand, creating a favorable environment for sales growth.
- Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the early success of the pill indicates that future volume could offset the pricing pressures expected in 2026, with the CEO's comments reflecting a positive internal outlook for the company's future.
See More
Novo Nordisk Shares Surge After Competitor Withdraws Drug
- Stock Surge: Novo Nordisk shares jumped 8% on Monday following Hims & Hers' announcement to withdraw its copycat weight-loss pill, indicating increased market confidence in Novo Nordisk's products.
- Legal Threats: Novo Nordisk and the FDA had threatened legal action against Hims & Hers, prompting the withdrawal, which not only protects Novo Nordisk's market share but may also reshape competitive dynamics in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Hims & Hers stated on social media that after constructive conversations with industry stakeholders, they decided to stop offering the treatment, a move that could further solidify Novo Nordisk's leadership in the weight-loss drug market.
- Commitment to Safe Care: Hims & Hers emphasized its commitment to providing safe, affordable, and personalized care, and while the withdrawal may impact its trust among consumers, it reflects a strategic pivot in response to regulatory pressures.
See More
Novo Nordisk Shares Surge After Hims Withdraws Weight-Loss Pill
- Significant Stock Surge: Novo Nordisk shares rose over 8% on Monday, reaching a market peak, primarily driven by Hims' withdrawal of its $49 compounded weight-loss pill, indicating a rebound in market confidence towards Novo.
- Legal Pressure Impact: Hims announced the discontinuation of the drug on Saturday under legal pressure from Novo and the FDA, reflecting the regulatory body's strict oversight of unauthorized compounded medications, which may further influence market competition dynamics.
- Market Value Fluctuation: Following a loss of approximately $50 billion in market value last week due to unprecedented pricing pressures, the stock rebound indicates renewed investor confidence, despite the company's forecast of a potential 13% decline in revenue and profits by 2026.
- Intensified Competition: With Eli Lilly leading in U.S. prescription trends, Novo Nordisk faces increasing competitive pressure, particularly in the high-margin obesity drug market, suggesting that future market dynamics will significantly impact its performance.
See More
Hims & Hers Super Bowl Ad Sparks Controversy Over Cancer Test
- Ad Controversy: The Super Bowl ad by Hims & Hers has sparked widespread debate over the reliability and ethical implications of its new cancer detection product, which claims to detect over 50 types of cancer before symptoms appear.
- Accuracy Concerns: Initial results indicate that the test only detects about 40% of cancers, meaning it may miss more than half of cases, potentially giving patients a false sense of reassurance about their health status.
- Mixed Market Response: Hims & Hers reported an EPS of 6 cents in its Q3 earnings, missing estimates, although its revenue of $598.97 million exceeded expectations; however, the company’s guidance for Q4 revenue fell below consensus, reflecting mixed performance.
- Pricing and Regulatory Challenges: The test is priced at $700, representing a 25% discount from the manufacturer's list price, but Grail has requested FDA approval under a stringent regulatory pathway, adding risks to its future market rollout.
See More
Hims Halts Sales of Wegovy Copycat Following FDA Scrutiny
- Regulatory Pressure Halts Sales: Hims announced the cessation of its $49 compounded semaglutide pill following FDA scrutiny, demonstrating the company's swift response to legal threats, even as retail sentiment remains optimistic.
- FDA Action Raises Legal Risks: The FDA plans to restrict access to GLP-1 ingredients in compounded drugs and refer Hims to the Department of Justice, indicating significant compliance challenges that could impact the company's future market performance.
- Competitors Push Back: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly strongly criticized Hims' compounded drug as illegal, threatening legal action to protect their intellectual property, which may intensify market competition and affect Hims' brand image.
- Market Sentiment Remains Bullish: Despite Hims' stock price dropping about 30% year-to-date, retail investor sentiment on Stocktwits is still 'extremely bullish', reflecting confidence in the company's future potential and possibly attracting more investor attention in the short term.
See More
Novo Nordisk's 2025 Earnings Analysis
- 2026 Earnings Guidance: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report indicates a projected decline in sales and earnings between 5% and 13% for 2026, primarily due to lower pricing on GLP-1 drugs resulting from an agreement with the U.S. government, reflecting market pressures and uncertainty in future profitability.
- Market Response to GLP-1 Drugs: Despite challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill has attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, demonstrating a rapid adoption rate that suggests strong future growth potential and market demand.
- Consumer Preference Shift: Consumers prefer oral medications over injections, which enhances the appeal of Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill in the market; combined with the lower pricing from the U.S. government deal, this is expected to further drive demand growth.
- Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the company remains a key player in the GLP-1 space, and early market success indicates that future sales volume could offset the pricing declines anticipated in 2026.
See More
Novo Nordisk Expects Earnings Decline in 2026
- Earnings Guidance Decline: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report revealed a grim outlook for 2026, with sales and earnings expected to decline between 5% and 13%, primarily due to lower GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S., indicating significant market pressures and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Surge in GLP-1 Demand: Despite these challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, far exceeding management's expectations, highlighting the potential growth opportunities in the weight-loss drug market.
- Increased Market Acceptance: The preference for oral medications over injections among consumers suggests that Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill could tap into a larger market, and the pricing agreement with the U.S. government further boosts demand, creating a favorable environment for sales growth.
- Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the early success of the pill indicates that future volume could offset the pricing pressures expected in 2026, with the CEO's comments reflecting a positive internal outlook for the company's future.
See More
Novo Nordisk Shares Surge After Competitor Withdraws Drug
- Stock Surge: Novo Nordisk shares jumped 8% on Monday following Hims & Hers' announcement to withdraw its copycat weight-loss pill, indicating increased market confidence in Novo Nordisk's products.
- Legal Threats: Novo Nordisk and the FDA had threatened legal action against Hims & Hers, prompting the withdrawal, which not only protects Novo Nordisk's market share but may also reshape competitive dynamics in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Hims & Hers stated on social media that after constructive conversations with industry stakeholders, they decided to stop offering the treatment, a move that could further solidify Novo Nordisk's leadership in the weight-loss drug market.
- Commitment to Safe Care: Hims & Hers emphasized its commitment to providing safe, affordable, and personalized care, and while the withdrawal may impact its trust among consumers, it reflects a strategic pivot in response to regulatory pressures.
See More
Novo Nordisk Shares Surge After Hims Withdraws Weight-Loss Pill
- Significant Stock Surge: Novo Nordisk shares rose over 8% on Monday, reaching a market peak, primarily driven by Hims' withdrawal of its $49 compounded weight-loss pill, indicating a rebound in market confidence towards Novo.
- Legal Pressure Impact: Hims announced the discontinuation of the drug on Saturday under legal pressure from Novo and the FDA, reflecting the regulatory body's strict oversight of unauthorized compounded medications, which may further influence market competition dynamics.
- Market Value Fluctuation: Following a loss of approximately $50 billion in market value last week due to unprecedented pricing pressures, the stock rebound indicates renewed investor confidence, despite the company's forecast of a potential 13% decline in revenue and profits by 2026.
- Intensified Competition: With Eli Lilly leading in U.S. prescription trends, Novo Nordisk faces increasing competitive pressure, particularly in the high-margin obesity drug market, suggesting that future market dynamics will significantly impact its performance.
See More
Hims & Hers Super Bowl Ad Sparks Controversy Over Cancer Test
- Ad Controversy: The Super Bowl ad by Hims & Hers has sparked widespread debate over the reliability and ethical implications of its new cancer detection product, which claims to detect over 50 types of cancer before symptoms appear.
- Accuracy Concerns: Initial results indicate that the test only detects about 40% of cancers, meaning it may miss more than half of cases, potentially giving patients a false sense of reassurance about their health status.
- Mixed Market Response: Hims & Hers reported an EPS of 6 cents in its Q3 earnings, missing estimates, although its revenue of $598.97 million exceeded expectations; however, the company’s guidance for Q4 revenue fell below consensus, reflecting mixed performance.
- Pricing and Regulatory Challenges: The test is priced at $700, representing a 25% discount from the manufacturer's list price, but Grail has requested FDA approval under a stringent regulatory pathway, adding risks to its future market rollout.
See More
Hims Halts Sales of Wegovy Copycat Following FDA Scrutiny
- Regulatory Pressure Halts Sales: Hims announced the cessation of its $49 compounded semaglutide pill following FDA scrutiny, demonstrating the company's swift response to legal threats, even as retail sentiment remains optimistic.
- FDA Action Raises Legal Risks: The FDA plans to restrict access to GLP-1 ingredients in compounded drugs and refer Hims to the Department of Justice, indicating significant compliance challenges that could impact the company's future market performance.
- Competitors Push Back: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly strongly criticized Hims' compounded drug as illegal, threatening legal action to protect their intellectual property, which may intensify market competition and affect Hims' brand image.
- Market Sentiment Remains Bullish: Despite Hims' stock price dropping about 30% year-to-date, retail investor sentiment on Stocktwits is still 'extremely bullish', reflecting confidence in the company's future potential and possibly attracting more investor attention in the short term.
See More
Novo Nordisk's 2025 Earnings Analysis
- 2026 Earnings Guidance: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report indicates a projected decline in sales and earnings between 5% and 13% for 2026, primarily due to lower pricing on GLP-1 drugs resulting from an agreement with the U.S. government, reflecting market pressures and uncertainty in future profitability.
- Market Response to GLP-1 Drugs: Despite challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill has attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, demonstrating a rapid adoption rate that suggests strong future growth potential and market demand.
- Consumer Preference Shift: Consumers prefer oral medications over injections, which enhances the appeal of Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill in the market; combined with the lower pricing from the U.S. government deal, this is expected to further drive demand growth.
- Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the company remains a key player in the GLP-1 space, and early market success indicates that future sales volume could offset the pricing declines anticipated in 2026.
See More
