Starbucks Shares Up 13.7% Year-to-Date: Is It a Buy?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Should l Buy SBUX?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Strong Earnings Report: Starbucks reported a 5% increase in global revenue and growing same-store sales in its Q4 2025 earnings, alongside the opening of 128 new coffeehouses, indicating robust market demand, although overall performance still requires improvement.
- China Market Transformation: The agreement with Boyu Capital to convert its China locations into a joint venture, with Boyu taking up to a 60% stake, could save Starbucks $39 million monthly in operating costs, yet raises concerns about brand management and operational oversight.
- Significant Membership Growth: As of last quarter, Starbucks boasted 35.5 million active members, a substantial increase from 24 million at its peak in 2021, reflecting enhanced brand loyalty, despite a sharp decline in net income.
- Increased Valuation Risk: With a P/E ratio nearing 78, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 29.5, the market appears to have overly optimistic expectations for Starbucks' recovery, prompting investors to carefully consider their positions in the stock.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy SBUX?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on SBUX
Wall Street analysts forecast SBUX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SBUX is 96.12 USD with a low forecast of 59.00 USD and a high forecast of 115.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
21 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 96.070
Low
59.00
Averages
96.12
High
115.00
Current: 96.070
Low
59.00
Averages
96.12
High
115.00
About SBUX
Starbucks Corporations is a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee globally. Its North America segment includes the United States and Canada. Its International segment includes China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its North America and International segments include both Company-operated and licensed stores. The Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Starbucks-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, such as Frappuccino and Starbucks Doubleshot, foodservice products, and other branded products sold outside the Company-operated and licensed stores. A large portion of its Channel Development business operates under a licensed model of the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestle, while its global ready-to-drink businesses operate under collaborative relationships with PepsiCo, Inc., Tingyi-Ashi Beverages Holding Co., Ltd., Arla Foods amba, Nestle, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Starbucks Sees Sales Growth and Strategic Moves in China
- Sales Recovery: Starbucks reported a 4% same-store sales growth in Q1 2026, with global foot traffic up 3% year-over-year, indicating a recovery in brand appeal after two years of decline, and expects same-store sales to rise by 3% or more in fiscal 2026, reflecting a positive market trend.
- New Strategy in China: Starbucks has entered a joint venture with Boyu Capital, selling a 60% stake to rapidly expand its presence, aiming to increase its 8,000 stores in China to 15,000 to 20,000, adopting an asset-light approach to adapt to the fast-changing market, highlighting its commitment to the Chinese market.
- Profitability Under Pressure: Despite the sales recovery, Starbucks faced a 9.2% increase in operating expenses in Q1, outpacing revenue growth of 5.5%, leading to a decline in operating margin from 11.9% to 9%, indicating pressures from labor investments and rising raw material costs.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Wall Street remains optimistic about Starbucks, with expectations for adjusted operating income to grow at a compound annual rate of 16% from fiscal 2025 to 2028, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term profitability.
See More
Luckin Coffee Opens First Flagship Store to Compete with Starbucks Reserve
- Flagship Store Launch: Luckin Coffee has opened its first flagship store in Shenzhen, marking a significant shift from budget coffee kiosks to the premium market, aiming to compete directly with Starbucks' high-end roasteries, indicating a major strategic pivot.
- Product Diversification: The new store offers premium coffee sourced from Brazil, Ethiopia, and Yunnan at higher prices than traditional offerings, attracting a large customer base, with social media reports of 1 to 3-hour wait times, reflecting a rising demand for high-end coffee.
- Market Share Growth: As of September 30, 2025, Luckin reported $1.55 billion in revenue from self-operated stores, a 48% year-on-year increase, with over 29,000 locations in China, demonstrating its ability to continue expanding in a highly competitive market.
- International Expansion Plans: Luckin is increasing its store count in the U.S. and Singapore, with plans for further international market expansion, showcasing its ambition in the global coffee market, particularly among young consumers seeking new experiences and emotional fulfillment.
See More
Super Bowl Day After Holiday Gains Attention
- Viewership Expectations: Over 100 million people are expected to tune into Super Bowl LX, starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, with post-game coverage lasting until 10:30 p.m. ET; if the game becomes one-sided, Comcast could face viewer drop-off, impacting advertising revenue.
- Holiday Support: A Benzinga poll revealed that 69.4% of users favor making the Monday after the Super Bowl a holiday, while a separate survey showed 42% support for it as a federal holiday, indicating a divide in public opinion on this proposal.
- Productivity Impact: A 2023 survey indicated that 18.1 million employees are expected to miss work the day after the Super Bowl, with productivity dropping by over $5 billion during the Super Bowl week, highlighting the potential economic implications of establishing this holiday.
- Future Outlook: The Super Bowl in 2027 will coincide with Presidents' Day, which may prompt the NFL to consider making the Monday after the Super Bowl a holiday; NFL Commissioner Goodell noted that the decision not to do so in the past was to maintain audience ratings, suggesting future changes could alter this stance.
See More
Dutch Bros Outpaces Starbucks with Consistent Growth
- Consistent Sales Growth: Dutch Bros has achieved 12 consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, indicating strong operational health, while Starbucks faced six quarters of declines during the same period, highlighting increasing market competition.
- Expansion Potential: With only 1,081 locations currently in the U.S., Dutch Bros' CEO projects the potential to expand to 7,000 stores, suggesting significant future revenue and earnings growth, particularly in the eastern and northern markets.
- Revenue Structure Advantage: Dutch Bros generates nearly 75% of its revenue after 10 a.m., compared to 50% for other chains, allowing for more efficient store management and better handling of customer traffic.
- Strategic Food Initiative: Dutch Bros plans to expand its food program throughout 2026, aiming to become a one-stop shop during the morning daypart, which will attract a broader customer base and further drive sales growth.
See More
Dutch Bros Coffee Emerges as a Strong Competitor
- Market Share Comparison: Starbucks boasts a market cap of $110 billion with $9.9 billion in Q1 revenue, while Dutch Bros has a market cap of $9 billion, indicating significant potential for expansion for the latter.
- Sales Timing Advantage: Dutch Bros generates nearly 75% of its revenue after 10 a.m., allowing for more flexible store management and effective customer traffic handling, supporting its goal of $1.8 million in average annual unit volumes.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: After six consecutive quarters of declines, Starbucks anticipates a 3% same-store sales increase in fiscal 2026, while Dutch Bros has achieved 12 straight quarters of same-store sales growth, highlighting its operational health and competitive edge.
- Expansion Potential: With 1,081 locations in the U.S., Dutch Bros' leadership believes there is room for 7,000 stores, and if this potential is realized, revenue and earnings are set to soar significantly.
See More
Three Ways Dutch Bros Outpaces Starbucks
- Sales Timing Advantage: Dutch Bros generates nearly 75% of its revenue after 10 a.m., contrasting sharply with leading chains like Starbucks, which rely more heavily on morning sales, allowing Dutch Bros to manage customer traffic more effectively and enhance operational efficiency.
- Consistent Growth Performance: After six consecutive quarters of declining same-store sales, Starbucks anticipates a 3% increase in fiscal 2026, while Dutch Bros has achieved 12 straight quarters of same-store sales growth, highlighting its strong market appeal and performance in the industry.
- Significant Expansion Potential: With a market cap of only $9 billion and 1,081 locations as of September 30, 2025, Dutch Bros sees the potential to open 7,000 stores in the U.S., which could significantly boost its future revenue and earnings as it capitalizes on this growth opportunity.
- Competitive Market Outlook: The growth potential and market positioning of Dutch Bros suggest it may offer investors higher returns over the next decade compared to Starbucks, making it an attractive option for those looking for investment opportunities in the coffee sector.
See More
Starbucks Sees Sales Growth and Strategic Moves in China
- Sales Recovery: Starbucks reported a 4% same-store sales growth in Q1 2026, with global foot traffic up 3% year-over-year, indicating a recovery in brand appeal after two years of decline, and expects same-store sales to rise by 3% or more in fiscal 2026, reflecting a positive market trend.
- New Strategy in China: Starbucks has entered a joint venture with Boyu Capital, selling a 60% stake to rapidly expand its presence, aiming to increase its 8,000 stores in China to 15,000 to 20,000, adopting an asset-light approach to adapt to the fast-changing market, highlighting its commitment to the Chinese market.
- Profitability Under Pressure: Despite the sales recovery, Starbucks faced a 9.2% increase in operating expenses in Q1, outpacing revenue growth of 5.5%, leading to a decline in operating margin from 11.9% to 9%, indicating pressures from labor investments and rising raw material costs.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Wall Street remains optimistic about Starbucks, with expectations for adjusted operating income to grow at a compound annual rate of 16% from fiscal 2025 to 2028, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term profitability.
See More
Luckin Coffee Opens First Flagship Store to Compete with Starbucks Reserve
- Flagship Store Launch: Luckin Coffee has opened its first flagship store in Shenzhen, marking a significant shift from budget coffee kiosks to the premium market, aiming to compete directly with Starbucks' high-end roasteries, indicating a major strategic pivot.
- Product Diversification: The new store offers premium coffee sourced from Brazil, Ethiopia, and Yunnan at higher prices than traditional offerings, attracting a large customer base, with social media reports of 1 to 3-hour wait times, reflecting a rising demand for high-end coffee.
- Market Share Growth: As of September 30, 2025, Luckin reported $1.55 billion in revenue from self-operated stores, a 48% year-on-year increase, with over 29,000 locations in China, demonstrating its ability to continue expanding in a highly competitive market.
- International Expansion Plans: Luckin is increasing its store count in the U.S. and Singapore, with plans for further international market expansion, showcasing its ambition in the global coffee market, particularly among young consumers seeking new experiences and emotional fulfillment.
See More
Super Bowl Day After Holiday Gains Attention
- Viewership Expectations: Over 100 million people are expected to tune into Super Bowl LX, starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, with post-game coverage lasting until 10:30 p.m. ET; if the game becomes one-sided, Comcast could face viewer drop-off, impacting advertising revenue.
- Holiday Support: A Benzinga poll revealed that 69.4% of users favor making the Monday after the Super Bowl a holiday, while a separate survey showed 42% support for it as a federal holiday, indicating a divide in public opinion on this proposal.
- Productivity Impact: A 2023 survey indicated that 18.1 million employees are expected to miss work the day after the Super Bowl, with productivity dropping by over $5 billion during the Super Bowl week, highlighting the potential economic implications of establishing this holiday.
- Future Outlook: The Super Bowl in 2027 will coincide with Presidents' Day, which may prompt the NFL to consider making the Monday after the Super Bowl a holiday; NFL Commissioner Goodell noted that the decision not to do so in the past was to maintain audience ratings, suggesting future changes could alter this stance.
See More
Dutch Bros Outpaces Starbucks with Consistent Growth
- Consistent Sales Growth: Dutch Bros has achieved 12 consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, indicating strong operational health, while Starbucks faced six quarters of declines during the same period, highlighting increasing market competition.
- Expansion Potential: With only 1,081 locations currently in the U.S., Dutch Bros' CEO projects the potential to expand to 7,000 stores, suggesting significant future revenue and earnings growth, particularly in the eastern and northern markets.
- Revenue Structure Advantage: Dutch Bros generates nearly 75% of its revenue after 10 a.m., compared to 50% for other chains, allowing for more efficient store management and better handling of customer traffic.
- Strategic Food Initiative: Dutch Bros plans to expand its food program throughout 2026, aiming to become a one-stop shop during the morning daypart, which will attract a broader customer base and further drive sales growth.
See More
Dutch Bros Coffee Emerges as a Strong Competitor
- Market Share Comparison: Starbucks boasts a market cap of $110 billion with $9.9 billion in Q1 revenue, while Dutch Bros has a market cap of $9 billion, indicating significant potential for expansion for the latter.
- Sales Timing Advantage: Dutch Bros generates nearly 75% of its revenue after 10 a.m., allowing for more flexible store management and effective customer traffic handling, supporting its goal of $1.8 million in average annual unit volumes.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: After six consecutive quarters of declines, Starbucks anticipates a 3% same-store sales increase in fiscal 2026, while Dutch Bros has achieved 12 straight quarters of same-store sales growth, highlighting its operational health and competitive edge.
- Expansion Potential: With 1,081 locations in the U.S., Dutch Bros' leadership believes there is room for 7,000 stores, and if this potential is realized, revenue and earnings are set to soar significantly.
See More
Three Ways Dutch Bros Outpaces Starbucks
- Sales Timing Advantage: Dutch Bros generates nearly 75% of its revenue after 10 a.m., contrasting sharply with leading chains like Starbucks, which rely more heavily on morning sales, allowing Dutch Bros to manage customer traffic more effectively and enhance operational efficiency.
- Consistent Growth Performance: After six consecutive quarters of declining same-store sales, Starbucks anticipates a 3% increase in fiscal 2026, while Dutch Bros has achieved 12 straight quarters of same-store sales growth, highlighting its strong market appeal and performance in the industry.
- Significant Expansion Potential: With a market cap of only $9 billion and 1,081 locations as of September 30, 2025, Dutch Bros sees the potential to open 7,000 stores in the U.S., which could significantly boost its future revenue and earnings as it capitalizes on this growth opportunity.
- Competitive Market Outlook: The growth potential and market positioning of Dutch Bros suggest it may offer investors higher returns over the next decade compared to Starbucks, making it an attractive option for those looking for investment opportunities in the coffee sector.
See More
