<Research>BOCI: NIO's 4Q Delivery Forecast Falls Short, Yet Non-GAAP Breakeven Goal Remains Steady
Financial Performance: NIO-SW reported a 14.7% QoQ increase in total revenue and improved vehicle gross margin to 14.7%, while reducing its non-GAAP net loss by 33% QoQ.
Delivery Guidance: The company anticipates delivering over 40,000 units in 4Q25, which is below market expectations, reflecting cautious management forecasts due to declining local subsidy funds.
Future Goals: NIO-SW aims for non-GAAP breakeven in 4Q25, relying on product upgrades from the new ES8 model, stable non-automotive profits, and improved operational efficiency.
Market Ratings: BOCI maintains a Buy rating for NIO with a target price of USD10.5, while BofAS has cut NIO-SW's target price to HKD52 and adjusted net loss forecasts.
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<Research>BOCOMI: NIO-SW (09866.HK) Reports First Positive Quarterly Operating Profit; Anticipated New Car Cycle in 2H26 to Boost Re-rating
Positive Profit Alert: NIO-SW announced a positive profit alert for 4Q25, expecting an adjusted operating profit between RMB700 million and RMB1.2 billion, marking its first positive operating profit in a single quarter.
Factors for Profitability: The anticipated profitability is attributed to increased deliveries, a higher proportion of premium products, and improvements in cost efficiency, demonstrating the effectiveness of its business model.
Future Outlook: While profit fluctuations are expected in 1H26 due to seasonal factors and cost volatility, the launch of new large SUVs in 2H26 is anticipated to enhance gross margins.
Broker Ratings: Nomura maintained a Neutral rating for NIO's 4Q25 results and a Buy rating for NIO-SW, with target prices set at US$8 for US stocks and $62.75 for H-shares, emphasizing the importance of the new car cycle for valuation re-rating.
NIO-SW Aims to Establish 1,000 New Battery Swap Stations This Year
NIO's Expansion Plans: NIO plans to build 1,000 new battery swap stations by 2026, enhancing charging routes to 100, as announced by CEO William Li on social media.
New Battery Swap Routes: Following the completion of the G318 Sichuan-Tibet and Yunnan-Tibet routes, NIO will introduce the Silk Road battery swap route this year, further expanding travel options for users.
NIO-SW Reaches Significant Milestone with 100 Million Battery Swaps
Stock Performance: NIO-SW (09866.HK) saw a 2.558% increase, with a short selling volume of $194.35 million and a ratio of 26.383%.
Milestone Achievement: The company celebrated its 100 millionth battery swap, completed by an ET5T owner in Haining City, Zhejiang Province.
Nomura Reports NIO (NIO.US) Exceeds Expectations in 4Q25 Results; Maintains Neutral Rating
Positive Financial Outlook: NIO-SW is expected to report positive GAAP and non-GAAP operating profits in 4Q25, surpassing previous expectations of breaking even, according to a Nomura research report.
New Model Launches: The introduction of new models like the ES9 and Onvo L80 in 2026 is anticipated to strengthen NIO's market position and financial health, provided they perform similarly to earlier successful models.
Target Price Adjustments: Citi has lowered NIO-SW's target price to HKD47.3, reflecting reduced sales forecasts for 2026-27, while maintaining a Neutral rating for NIO's US stock with a target price of US$8.4.
Market Activity: NIO-SW's stock has seen a significant short selling activity amounting to $97.00M, with a short selling ratio of 32.026%.
Citi Reduces NIO-SW's Target Price to HKD47.3 Amid Revised 2026-27 Sales Projections
Positive Profit Alert: NIO-SW expects a non-GAAP operating profit between RMB700 million to RMB1.2 billion and a GAAP operating profit of RMB200 million to RMB700 million, marking its first quarterly operating profit due to sales growth and cost reductions.
Revised Sales Forecasts: Citi has lowered NIO-SW's 2026-27 sales forecasts by 10-13% to 400,000 and 471,000 units, respectively, along with an 11% and 7% reduction in revenue forecasts and a slight decrease in gross margins.
Stock Rating and Target Price: Despite the revisions, Citi maintains a Buy rating on NIO-SW but has reduced its target price from HKD53 to HKD47.3.
Market Sentiment: M Stanley suggests that any marginal improvement in market sentiment for NIO-SW could indicate a potential recovery for the company.
M Stanley: Slight Improvement in Market Sentiment for NIO-SW May Indicate Recovery
Positive Profit Alert: NIO-SW projected a 4Q25 GAAP net profit of RMB200-700 million and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB700 million to RMB1.2 billion, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
Stock Performance: Despite a positive outlook, NIO-SW's stock has decreased by 35% over the past three months, contrasting with a 4% rise in the HSI during the same period.
Morgan Stanley's Rating: Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating for NIO and has set a target price of USD7, suggesting potential opportunities if market sentiment improves.
Market Conditions: A significant recovery in NIO's stock price is contingent on an overall rebound in China's electric vehicle demand amidst ongoing industry challenges.
<Research>BOCOMI: NIO-SW (09866.HK) Reports First Positive Quarterly Operating Profit; Anticipated New Car Cycle in 2H26 to Boost Re-rating
Positive Profit Alert: NIO-SW announced a positive profit alert for 4Q25, expecting an adjusted operating profit between RMB700 million and RMB1.2 billion, marking its first positive operating profit in a single quarter.
Factors for Profitability: The anticipated profitability is attributed to increased deliveries, a higher proportion of premium products, and improvements in cost efficiency, demonstrating the effectiveness of its business model.
Future Outlook: While profit fluctuations are expected in 1H26 due to seasonal factors and cost volatility, the launch of new large SUVs in 2H26 is anticipated to enhance gross margins.
Broker Ratings: Nomura maintained a Neutral rating for NIO's 4Q25 results and a Buy rating for NIO-SW, with target prices set at US$8 for US stocks and $62.75 for H-shares, emphasizing the importance of the new car cycle for valuation re-rating.
NIO-SW Aims to Establish 1,000 New Battery Swap Stations This Year
NIO's Expansion Plans: NIO plans to build 1,000 new battery swap stations by 2026, enhancing charging routes to 100, as announced by CEO William Li on social media.
New Battery Swap Routes: Following the completion of the G318 Sichuan-Tibet and Yunnan-Tibet routes, NIO will introduce the Silk Road battery swap route this year, further expanding travel options for users.
NIO-SW Reaches Significant Milestone with 100 Million Battery Swaps
Stock Performance: NIO-SW (09866.HK) saw a 2.558% increase, with a short selling volume of $194.35 million and a ratio of 26.383%.
Milestone Achievement: The company celebrated its 100 millionth battery swap, completed by an ET5T owner in Haining City, Zhejiang Province.
Nomura Reports NIO (NIO.US) Exceeds Expectations in 4Q25 Results; Maintains Neutral Rating
Positive Financial Outlook: NIO-SW is expected to report positive GAAP and non-GAAP operating profits in 4Q25, surpassing previous expectations of breaking even, according to a Nomura research report.
New Model Launches: The introduction of new models like the ES9 and Onvo L80 in 2026 is anticipated to strengthen NIO's market position and financial health, provided they perform similarly to earlier successful models.
Target Price Adjustments: Citi has lowered NIO-SW's target price to HKD47.3, reflecting reduced sales forecasts for 2026-27, while maintaining a Neutral rating for NIO's US stock with a target price of US$8.4.
Market Activity: NIO-SW's stock has seen a significant short selling activity amounting to $97.00M, with a short selling ratio of 32.026%.
Citi Reduces NIO-SW's Target Price to HKD47.3 Amid Revised 2026-27 Sales Projections
Positive Profit Alert: NIO-SW expects a non-GAAP operating profit between RMB700 million to RMB1.2 billion and a GAAP operating profit of RMB200 million to RMB700 million, marking its first quarterly operating profit due to sales growth and cost reductions.
Revised Sales Forecasts: Citi has lowered NIO-SW's 2026-27 sales forecasts by 10-13% to 400,000 and 471,000 units, respectively, along with an 11% and 7% reduction in revenue forecasts and a slight decrease in gross margins.
Stock Rating and Target Price: Despite the revisions, Citi maintains a Buy rating on NIO-SW but has reduced its target price from HKD53 to HKD47.3.
Market Sentiment: M Stanley suggests that any marginal improvement in market sentiment for NIO-SW could indicate a potential recovery for the company.
M Stanley: Slight Improvement in Market Sentiment for NIO-SW May Indicate Recovery
Positive Profit Alert: NIO-SW projected a 4Q25 GAAP net profit of RMB200-700 million and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB700 million to RMB1.2 billion, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
Stock Performance: Despite a positive outlook, NIO-SW's stock has decreased by 35% over the past three months, contrasting with a 4% rise in the HSI during the same period.
Morgan Stanley's Rating: Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating for NIO and has set a target price of USD7, suggesting potential opportunities if market sentiment improves.
Market Conditions: A significant recovery in NIO's stock price is contingent on an overall rebound in China's electric vehicle demand amidst ongoing industry challenges.
