Polymarket Sees $4.7M Wagering Surge on Khamenei's Potential Ouster
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 09 2026
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Should l Buy ?
Source: Benzinga
- Wagering Surge: In just four days since its launch, the trade volume for the bet on 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader by January 31?' has surged to $4.7 million, making it one of the most popular bets on Polymarket, surpassing those related to Greenland, tariffs, NBA games, and interest rate cuts.
- Market Expectations: Currently, bettors assign only a 17% chance that Khamenei will be ousted by the end of the month, while placing an 82% bet on him remaining in power, indicating a prevailing confidence in regime stability despite ongoing protests.
- Individual Profits: A bettor named TheBigBlind, who entered the bet at 11% odds of Khamenei's ouster, has reportedly made over $13,000 in profit, highlighting the market's keen interest and potential for lucrative opportunities surrounding this political event.
- Context of Unrest: As protests enter their 12th day, Iranian authorities have imposed a nationwide internet blackout, with reports indicating at least 42 fatalities, including five minors and eight security personnel, underscoring the escalating internal crisis facing the nation.
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About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
