Plug Power's 2025 Bet On Electrolyzers—J.P. Morgan Sees Growth But Stays Conservative
Analyst Insights: J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Peterson provided a Neutral rating on Plug Power, Inc., highlighting discussions on demand outlook, cost-saving initiatives, and financial plans, while noting a lowered revenue guidance due to macro headwinds and policy uncertainty.
Future Expectations: Plug Power anticipates significant cost reductions from Project Quantum Leap and expects Electrolyzers to drive revenue growth by 2025, with a recent contract for a clean hydrogen ecosystem in Texas potentially boosting future performance.
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Collaboration Overview: Air Products and Yara International are partnering to supply low-emission ammonia from projects in Louisiana and Saudi Arabia, with key decisions expected by 2026, focusing on European demand.
Louisiana Clean Energy Complex: Air Products is developing a facility in Louisiana to produce low-carbon hydrogen and capture CO2, with an estimated project cost of $8-9 billion and a completion target of 2030.
NEOM Green Hydrogen Project: The NEOM project in Saudi Arabia is nearing completion and aims to start commercial production in 2027, with Air Products set to purchase renewable ammonia.
Stock Performance: Air Products' shares have dropped 9.36% to $236.30, reflecting market reactions to the collaboration and ongoing projects.
Plug Power's Capital Raise Impact: Plug Power Inc's recent $375 million capital raise through convertible senior notes has led to a nearly 20% drop in its stock price, raising concerns about shareholder dilution and increasing debt obligations.
Effect on Hydrogen ETFs: The decline in Plug Power's stock has negatively affected hydrogen-focused ETFs, such as the Global X Hydrogen ETF and the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF, both of which have seen significant losses due to their exposure to Plug Power.
Refinancing Strategy: Plug Power plans to use a substantial portion of the raised funds to pay off high-interest debt, which may improve liquidity but also extends leverage and dilutes shareholder value.
Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook: The situation highlights the challenges for investors in thematic ETFs, particularly in the hydrogen sector, as they may need to reassess their risk tolerance amid ongoing volatility and the need for consistent financing in capital-intensive technologies.
Plug Power's Major Agreement: Plug Power Inc. has secured a 55-megawatt electrolyzer supply agreement for three significant green hydrogen projects in the UK, marking the largest combined electrolyzer award in the country to date.
Project Details: The projects include Barrow-in-Furness, Trafford Green Hydrogen, and Langage Green Hydrogen, which aim to produce renewable hydrogen for various industrial applications and are awaiting final investment approvals.
Government Support: All three projects are part of the U.K. government's Hydrogen Business Model, which offers long-term revenue support, with final decisions expected by late 2025 and early 2026.
Market Impact: Despite the positive developments, Plug Power's shares have seen a decline, trading lower by 5.92% at $2.112.

Earnings Report: Plug Power reported a quarterly loss of 12 cents per share, slightly better than analyst expectations, but revenue of $177.05 million fell short of the $179.53 million estimate.
Future Goals: The company aims to reach gross-margin breakeven by the end of 2025 and targets EBITDA positivity in the second half of 2026, contingent on demand growth.
Analyst Insights: JP Morgan's Bill Peterson maintains a Buy rating, noting that the company will not pursue a DOE loan for its Texas plant and is focusing on liquidity improvements, including selling electricity rights.
Stock Performance: PLUG shares have seen a 28% increase over the past year but are currently down 4.88% to $2.43, with expectations of continued volatility linked to broader market themes.
Third-Quarter Results: Plug Power reported a quarterly loss of 12 cents per share, slightly beating expectations, with revenue of $177.05 million, showing growth from the previous year despite being below analyst targets.
Operational Improvements: The company is focusing on reducing cash burn and aims for gross-margin breakeven by the end of 2025, with a target to achieve EBITDA positivity by the second half of 2026.
Hydrogen Supply Agreements: Plug Power secured a long-term supply deal with a major industrial gas provider, which will help reduce the need for developing new hydrogen plants, while major customers like Amazon and Walmart plan future deployments.
Production and Expansion: The Georgia Green Hydrogen Plant achieved high efficiency and uptime, and Plug Power is advancing its electrolyzer projects across multiple regions, with significant orders expected to be fulfilled by year-end.
Bloom Energy's Private Offering: Bloom Energy Corporation announced a private offering of $2.2 billion in zero-coupon convertible notes due 2030, increasing from an initial $1.75 billion, with settlement expected on November 4, 2025.
Use of Proceeds: The company plans to use approximately $988.4 million to fund cash exchanges of older convertible notes, including $532.8 million of 2028 notes and $443.1 million of 2029 notes, along with issuing shares.
Strong Financial Performance: Bloom Energy reported third-quarter revenue of $519.05 million, exceeding analyst expectations, and a year-over-year increase of 57.1%, with adjusted earnings of 15 cents per share.
Market Reaction: Following the announcement, BE shares saw a slight increase of 0.41%, trading at $128.62, while the stock has gained over 1,242% in the past year, reflecting strong investor interest.










