Oracle Shares Drop 13% Following Disappointing Forecast
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 11 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ORCL?
Markets are under pressure this morning as index futures slide following disappointing corporate news and lingering concerns over the technology sector. Oracle's shares are sharply lower after a downbeat forecast and heavy capital spending tied to its AI business. This drag on tech names like Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom and other AI-linked equities has knocked futures lower and put a cooler tone on the market.Globally, markets are mixed. Some Gulf markets are holding modest gains in response to the Fed easing, while Asian and European tech-heavy indices have softened in the wake of the tech selloff. Currency and bond markets are also reacting to the Fed's messaging and macro dynamics.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.62% and Dow futures were flat.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -Geminiup 9% after receiving a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customersCorbus Pharmaceuticalsup 8% after completing the single ascending dose and multiple ascending dose Phase 1a study of CRB-913Eli Lillyup 1% after reporting each dose of retatrutide met all primary and key secondary endpoints in its TRIUMPH-4 clinical trialUP AFTER EARNINGS -Cienaup 8%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Oracledown 13%Oxford Industriesdown 21%Lovesacdown 16%Hooker Furnituredown 14%Manchester Uniteddown 2%Vera Bradleydown 1%
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Analyst Views on ORCL
Wall Street analysts forecast ORCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ORCL is 309.59 USD with a low forecast of 180.00 USD and a high forecast of 400.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
34 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 136.480
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
Current: 136.480
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
About ORCL
Oracle Corporation offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. The Company operates through three businesses: cloud and license, hardware and service. Its cloud and license business is engaged in the sale, marketing and delivery of its enterprise applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings, and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. Its hardware business provides infrastructure technologies including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments. Its services business provides services to customers and partners to help maximize the performance of their investments in Oracle applications and infrastructure technologies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Market Dynamics Analysis of Nvidia and Oracle
- Nvidia Market Performance: Nvidia's stock has surged over 700% in the past three years, pushing its market capitalization beyond $4 trillion, making it the highest-valued company globally, which underscores its dominant position in high-performance AI applications and attracts significant investor interest.
- Oracle Financial Challenges: Oracle's stock has plummeted over 52% since September, with a market cap of only $440 billion, primarily due to its substantial spending on AI infrastructure and over $100 billion in debt, raising investor concerns about its financial health.
- Revenue Growth Potential: Despite debt pressures, Oracle reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 FY2026 to $16.05 billion, with net income soaring 95% to $6.13 billion, indicating strong growth potential in its cloud computing and software services sectors.
- Future Outlook and Valuation: Oracle's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at just 19.8, the lowest in over two years, and while analysts are optimistic about its future revenue projections, the company did not make the current list of top investment stocks, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding its potential.
See More
Nvidia vs. Oracle: Compelling Growth Stories
- Nvidia's Market Performance: Nvidia's stock has surged over 700% in the past three years, pushing its market capitalization above $4 trillion, making it the largest company globally, reflecting its dominance in high-performance AI applications.
- Oracle's Market Challenges: Oracle, with a market cap of $440 billion, has seen its stock drop over 52% since last September, primarily due to high spending on AI infrastructure and a debt load exceeding $100 billion.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Oracle's recent Q2 FY2026 earnings report revealed a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $16.05 billion, with net income soaring 95% to $6.13 billion, although this includes a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain from the sale of Ampere Computing.
- Future Growth Potential: Oracle's cloud revenue reached $7.977 billion, a 34% increase year-over-year, and future revenue is expected to rise significantly, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8, indicating the stock's attractiveness.
See More
Oracle Corporation Securities Class Action Reminder
- Class Action Notice: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased or acquired senior notes from Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) of a class action lawsuit due to false or misleading statements in the Offering Documents filed on March 15, 2024, potentially entitling them to compensation.
- Fee Arrangement: Investors joining the class action will incur no out-of-pocket costs, as the law firm operates on a contingency fee basis, thereby reducing financial barriers for affected investors and encouraging broader participation.
- Debt Risk Disclosure: The lawsuit claims that Oracle failed to disclose its need for significant additional debt to build AI infrastructure at the time of the offering, which could jeopardize the creditworthiness of the bonds, leading to investor losses once the truth emerged in the market.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has recovered over $438 million for investors in 2019 alone, being ranked first by ISS Securities Class Action Services in 2017, highlighting its expertise and success in this legal domain.
See More
Oracle CDS Pricing Signals Market Skepticism
- Bond Market Pressure: Oracle's credit default swap (CDS) pricing surged in November, currently at nearly four times the levels seen in September, indicating market concerns over its debt, which could lead to increased financing costs and impact the company's capital expenditures and investment decisions.
- AI Investment Risks: Oracle and Microsoft face heightened risks due to their $300 billion deal with OpenAI, as market skepticism grows over OpenAI's internal projections of burning through over $100 billion in cash before 2030, potentially undermining investor confidence in AI-related companies.
- Market Divergence: While the bond market adopts a cautious stance on Oracle's outlook, the equity market continues to invest in AI companies, reflecting differing views on the AI sector, which may prompt investors to reassess the value and sustainability of AI firms.
- Alphabet's Advantage: Compared to Oracle and Microsoft, Alphabet has minimal exposure to OpenAI and a stronger financial position, enabling it to better support AI-related capital expenditures, potentially giving it a competitive edge in future market dynamics.
See More
CrowdStrike's Bullish Outlook Driven by AI Era and Growth Potential
- Strong Market Performance: As of January 28, CrowdStrike's share price stood at $469.19, reflecting a recovery in investor confidence with a 23.39% increase since the last coverage, indicating stabilization in fundamentals and optimism about future growth.
- Significant Technological Advantage: The Falcon platform serves as a single-agent, cloud-native solution addressing increasingly complex cybersecurity needs, particularly in the AI-driven era, enhancing its competitive edge and attracting deep module adoption from large enterprises like Gap and Oracle.
- Revenue Growth Potential: Management has outlined a credible path to achieving $10 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by FY31 and $20 billion by FY36, demonstrating strategic commitment to expanding its customer base and use cases, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Data Moat Development: By processing trillions of security events and millions of labeled annotations, CrowdStrike has built a formidable data moat, which will be further enhanced as AI models increasingly rely on high-quality data, ensuring its leading position in the future cybersecurity landscape.
See More
Oracle Corporation Class Action Lawsuit Initiated
- Class Action Initiation: Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP has announced a class action lawsuit against Oracle Corporation for investors who purchased shares between June 12, 2025, and December 16, 2025, alleging violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, which could result in significant losses for investors.
- Capital Expenditure Risks: The lawsuit claims that Oracle's AI infrastructure strategy will lead to massive increases in capital expenditures without corresponding near-term revenue growth, posing serious risks to the company's debt and credit rating, as well as its ability to fund projects.
- Analyst Warnings: On September 25, 2025, analysts at Rothschild & Co. Redburn downgraded Oracle to
See More
Market Dynamics Analysis of Nvidia and Oracle
- Nvidia Market Performance: Nvidia's stock has surged over 700% in the past three years, pushing its market capitalization beyond $4 trillion, making it the highest-valued company globally, which underscores its dominant position in high-performance AI applications and attracts significant investor interest.
- Oracle Financial Challenges: Oracle's stock has plummeted over 52% since September, with a market cap of only $440 billion, primarily due to its substantial spending on AI infrastructure and over $100 billion in debt, raising investor concerns about its financial health.
- Revenue Growth Potential: Despite debt pressures, Oracle reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 FY2026 to $16.05 billion, with net income soaring 95% to $6.13 billion, indicating strong growth potential in its cloud computing and software services sectors.
- Future Outlook and Valuation: Oracle's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at just 19.8, the lowest in over two years, and while analysts are optimistic about its future revenue projections, the company did not make the current list of top investment stocks, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding its potential.
See More
Nvidia vs. Oracle: Compelling Growth Stories
- Nvidia's Market Performance: Nvidia's stock has surged over 700% in the past three years, pushing its market capitalization above $4 trillion, making it the largest company globally, reflecting its dominance in high-performance AI applications.
- Oracle's Market Challenges: Oracle, with a market cap of $440 billion, has seen its stock drop over 52% since last September, primarily due to high spending on AI infrastructure and a debt load exceeding $100 billion.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Oracle's recent Q2 FY2026 earnings report revealed a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $16.05 billion, with net income soaring 95% to $6.13 billion, although this includes a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain from the sale of Ampere Computing.
- Future Growth Potential: Oracle's cloud revenue reached $7.977 billion, a 34% increase year-over-year, and future revenue is expected to rise significantly, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8, indicating the stock's attractiveness.
See More
Oracle Corporation Securities Class Action Reminder
- Class Action Notice: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased or acquired senior notes from Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) of a class action lawsuit due to false or misleading statements in the Offering Documents filed on March 15, 2024, potentially entitling them to compensation.
- Fee Arrangement: Investors joining the class action will incur no out-of-pocket costs, as the law firm operates on a contingency fee basis, thereby reducing financial barriers for affected investors and encouraging broader participation.
- Debt Risk Disclosure: The lawsuit claims that Oracle failed to disclose its need for significant additional debt to build AI infrastructure at the time of the offering, which could jeopardize the creditworthiness of the bonds, leading to investor losses once the truth emerged in the market.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has recovered over $438 million for investors in 2019 alone, being ranked first by ISS Securities Class Action Services in 2017, highlighting its expertise and success in this legal domain.
See More
Oracle CDS Pricing Signals Market Skepticism
- Bond Market Pressure: Oracle's credit default swap (CDS) pricing surged in November, currently at nearly four times the levels seen in September, indicating market concerns over its debt, which could lead to increased financing costs and impact the company's capital expenditures and investment decisions.
- AI Investment Risks: Oracle and Microsoft face heightened risks due to their $300 billion deal with OpenAI, as market skepticism grows over OpenAI's internal projections of burning through over $100 billion in cash before 2030, potentially undermining investor confidence in AI-related companies.
- Market Divergence: While the bond market adopts a cautious stance on Oracle's outlook, the equity market continues to invest in AI companies, reflecting differing views on the AI sector, which may prompt investors to reassess the value and sustainability of AI firms.
- Alphabet's Advantage: Compared to Oracle and Microsoft, Alphabet has minimal exposure to OpenAI and a stronger financial position, enabling it to better support AI-related capital expenditures, potentially giving it a competitive edge in future market dynamics.
See More
CrowdStrike's Bullish Outlook Driven by AI Era and Growth Potential
- Strong Market Performance: As of January 28, CrowdStrike's share price stood at $469.19, reflecting a recovery in investor confidence with a 23.39% increase since the last coverage, indicating stabilization in fundamentals and optimism about future growth.
- Significant Technological Advantage: The Falcon platform serves as a single-agent, cloud-native solution addressing increasingly complex cybersecurity needs, particularly in the AI-driven era, enhancing its competitive edge and attracting deep module adoption from large enterprises like Gap and Oracle.
- Revenue Growth Potential: Management has outlined a credible path to achieving $10 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by FY31 and $20 billion by FY36, demonstrating strategic commitment to expanding its customer base and use cases, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Data Moat Development: By processing trillions of security events and millions of labeled annotations, CrowdStrike has built a formidable data moat, which will be further enhanced as AI models increasingly rely on high-quality data, ensuring its leading position in the future cybersecurity landscape.
See More
Oracle Corporation Class Action Lawsuit Initiated
- Class Action Initiation: Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP has announced a class action lawsuit against Oracle Corporation for investors who purchased shares between June 12, 2025, and December 16, 2025, alleging violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, which could result in significant losses for investors.
- Capital Expenditure Risks: The lawsuit claims that Oracle's AI infrastructure strategy will lead to massive increases in capital expenditures without corresponding near-term revenue growth, posing serious risks to the company's debt and credit rating, as well as its ability to fund projects.
- Analyst Warnings: On September 25, 2025, analysts at Rothschild & Co. Redburn downgraded Oracle to
See More
