OpenAI Seeks to Raise $100B at $830B Valuation
OpenAI is said to be seeking to raise as much as $100B at an $830B valuation. Meanwhile, Databricks raised $4B at a $134B valuation and announced it crossed a $4.8B revenue run-rate.This week's private company news:Microsoft-backed OpenAI is seeking to raise as much as $100B as it tries to pay for ambitious growth plans in a market that has ebbed recently on the AI boom, the Wall Street Journal's Kate Clark and Berber Jin. The latest funding round for the ChatGPT maker, which is in the early stages, could value it at as high as $830B if it raises the full amount it is aiming for, the authors say, citing people familiar with the matter. The AI company is seeking to complete the round by the end of Q1 at the earliest, the authors say, noting that the terms of the deal could still change and it is unclear whether there will be sufficient shareholder demand to reach the target. OpenAI is anticipated to recruit sovereign wealth funds to participate in the funding, given the scale, the authors say, citing people familiar with the matter.SpaceX is moving forward with an insider share sale that values Elon Musk's rocket and satellite maker at about $800B, setting up what could be the largest initial public offering of all time, Bloomberg's Loren Grush and Edward Ludlow. In a company message seen by Bloomberg on Friday, SpaceX said it's preparing for a possible public offering in 2026 that would be aimed at funding an "insane flight rate" for its developmental Starship rocket, artificial intelligence data centers in space and a base on the moon. The per-share price of $421 in its latest secondary offering, laid out by Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen in the memo to shareholders, is nearly double the $212 a share set in July at a $400B valuation, the authors note.Vibe coding startup Lovable's latest funding round values the company at $6.6B and includes U.S. VC firm Accel, sources with knowledge of the deal told CNBC, Kai Nicol-Schwarz. That figure is more than triple the $1.8B valuation the Swedish AI company achieved after closing its most recent funding round in July. It's Lovable's third in 2025 and follows a breakneck year of growth that's seen it become one of Europe's most valuable startups, the author notes.Some of the biggest capital raises by private companies this week include:Databricks– The company announced it is raising a greater than $4B Series L investment, valuing it at $134B. Additionally, Databricks said it crossed a $4.8B revenue run-rate during its Q3, growing greater than 55% year-over-year, including greater than $1B revenue run-rate from its Data Warehousing business and greater than $1B revenue run-rate from its AI products - all while delivering positive free cash flow over the last 12 months. Publicly traded companies in the space include Snowflake, Palantir, and MongoDB.MoEngage– The customer engagement platform raised $280M in a Series F round led by new investors ChrysCapital and Dragon Funds, alongside Schroders Capital, with continued participation from current investors TR Capital and B Capital. Publicly traded companies in the space include Braze, Adobe, and SAP.Tebra– The all-in-one EHR+ platform working with private healthcare providers said it secured $250M in new equity and debt financing to accelerate its R&D in AI and automation. Publicly traded companies in the space include Oracle Health, Veradigm, and NextGen Healthcare.HawkEye– The signals intelligence data and analytics company completed its acquisition of Innovative Signal Analysis, supported by equity and debt financings totaling $150M. This Series E preferred equity financing round was co-led by existing investor NightDragon and Center15 Capital, with additional secured and mezzanine debt financing from Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First Citizens Bank, Pinegrove Venture Partners, and Hercules Capital. Publicly traded companies in the space include Iridium, Trimble, and Spire Global.Nirvana Insurance– The premier AI-native commercial insurer announced it has secured a preemptive $100M of its Series D led by Valor Equity Partners, with previous lead investors Lightspeed Venture Partners and General Catalyst also doubling down significantly. Publicly traded companies in the space include Progressive, Allstate, and Travelers.Unicorns to watch this week:ezCater– The company operating in the corporate catering and food delivery space has an estimated valuation of over $1B. This holiday season the company is expected to experience strong demand, highlighted by its enterprise partnerships. Publicly traded companies in the space include DoorDash, Uber, and GrubHub.Loft Orbital– The satellite infrastructure company valued at over $1B is deploying satellites rapidly for commercial and government clients. Publicly traded companies in the space include Iridium, Trimble, and Spire Global.Kalshi– The prediction-market startup has recently raised $185M in a funding round led by Paradigm, valuing the company at about $2B, amid regulatory approval momentum and investor interest in alternative trading. Publicly traded companies in the space include CME Group, IntercontinentalExchange, and Cboe Global.Modal– The AI cloud computing platform is valued at approximately $1.1B after raising $87M Series B. Publicly traded companies in the space include Amazon, Alphabet, and.Fireworks AI – With an estimated valuation of $4B, the AI app builder's customer base grew 10 times in 2024. Publicly traded companies in the space include Amazon, Snowflake, and Palantir.IPOs to watch:Grayscale Investments– The company filed a prospectus for an initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "GRAY." Grayscale says it is the largest digital asset-focused investment platform in the world, with $35B in assets under management as of September 30.Klook Technology– The company, which identifies itself as "the largest pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific" by gross transaction volume in 2024, announced that it has filed a registration statement on Form F-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission relating to the proposed initial public offering of American Depositary Shares representing its ordinary shares.Speed Group– The company filed a prospectus for 2.5M share initial public offering. It expects the IPO price to be in the range of $4.00 to $5.00 per. The company's operating subsidiary, Speed Logistics, is an e-commerce logistics provider providing end-to-end logistics solution in Hong Kong, Europe and North America. The services include warehousing, customs clearance, air transportation, and final delivery from the European airports.Medline– The provider of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions filed a prospectus for an initial public offering on the Nasdaq.Lendbuzz– The company is offering an undetermined number of shares of its common stock and the selling stockholders identified in this prospectus are offering additional shares of common stock, according to an initial public offering prospectus filed with the SEC."Private Markets" is The Fly's recurring series of stories on the latest moves in the private sector, largest unicorn companies and initial public offerings to watch. Fly subscribers, add $PRIVATE to your portfolio for alerts on breaking news in the startup and venture capital space.
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- Performance Concerns: Microsoft's fiscal Q2 2026 results revealed strong overall performance; however, modest weaknesses in AI software and cloud services led to a more than 10% drop in stock price in one day, raising investor concerns about future growth.
- Copilot License Sales Growth: As of Q2 2026, Microsoft 365's Copilot licenses reached 15 million, doubling year-over-year but representing only a 3.7% market penetration, indicating limited market uptake that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Azure Revenue Growth Slowdown: Azure's revenue grew 39% year-over-year in Q2, surpassing Wall Street's 37.1% forecast, yet slower than the previous quarter's 40%, suggesting a potential loss of momentum that may affect investor confidence.
- Data Center Capacity Shortage: Microsoft's order backlog surged 110% year-over-year to $625 billion, with 45% from OpenAI, which may limit Azure's expansion and increase investment risks due to reliance on external funding and revenue growth.
- Strong Earnings but Stock Drop: Microsoft reported strong results for its fiscal 2026 second quarter, yet its stock fell over 10% due to modest weakness in AI software and cloud services, now down 22% from its record high, reflecting market concerns about future growth.
- Slow Copilot License Sales: As of the fiscal 2026 second quarter, only 15 million Copilot licenses for Microsoft 365 were sold, doubling year-over-year but representing a mere 3.7% market penetration, indicating insufficient market uptake that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Azure Growth Deceleration: Azure achieved a 39% year-over-year growth rate in the second quarter, exceeding Wall Street's expectations, yet slower than the previous quarter's 40%, with a staggering 110% year-over-year increase in order backlog to $625 billion due to data center capacity shortages, highlighting potential growth bottlenecks.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: With a current P/E ratio of 26.5, Microsoft is at its lowest valuation in three years, significantly lower than the Nasdaq-100's 32.8, and analysts project earnings to rise to $19.06 per share in fiscal 2027, resulting in a forward P/E of just 22.4, suggesting a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
- Election Outcome: Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a supermajority in the recent elections, allowing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to return to power, which indicates strong voter support for her administration.
- Economic Policy Initiatives: Takaichi's agenda includes increasing defense spending and suspending certain food-related taxes, which is expected to stimulate economic growth and enhance consumer confidence, positively impacting Japan's economy.
- Market Reaction: Following the election results, Japanese stocks reached a record high, with the yen strengthening to 156.88 per dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the government's future policies and economic direction.
- International Market Trends: U.S. markets also showed strong performance post-election, with major index futures rising, indicating global investor interest in tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector, further contributing to the overall market recovery.
- Big Tech Valuation Loss: According to FactSet data, Big Tech has collectively lost over $1 trillion in valuation over the past week, with Amazon alone shedding more than $300 billion, indicating a significant decline in market confidence that may lead investors to reassess the future growth potential of the tech sector.
- US-India Trade Deal Framework: The U.S. and India released a framework for a trade deal, although India showed resistance to U.S. demands for opening its agricultural market to imports, while Trump removed a 25% tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil, which could impact trade relations and future economic cooperation between the two nations.
- Luckin Coffee's High-End Store Launch: China's Luckin Coffee opened its first high-end store in Shenzhen, marking a shift from its original budget coffee kiosk strategy to directly compete with Starbucks, a strategic move that could attract a more affluent consumer base and enhance brand image and market share.
- Dow Jones Surpasses 50,000: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time on Friday, driven by a rebound in tech stocks, a milestone that not only reflects a strong market recovery but may also attract more investors to focus on the long-term growth potential of the U.S. stock market.
- Tech Sector Weakness: As of February 4, 2026, large-cap tech stocks have declined about 3%, making them the worst-performing sector, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and AI spending without returns, potentially increasing the risk of a market correction.
- Microsoft's Investment Appeal: Microsoft reported a 66% year-over-year increase in capital expenditures in Q2 2026, and despite a slowdown in Azure's growth, its remaining performance obligation surged 110% to $625 billion, making it attractive for long-term investors with a current P/E ratio of 26, below S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 averages.
- Oracle's Upside Potential: Oracle's stock is viewed by analysts as having higher upside potential, with a median price target of around $272, indicating an 88% upside over the next 12 months; however, concerns over its AI spending persist, despite a 438% year-over-year increase in its contract backlog to $523 billion, indicating strong market demand.
- Market Focus on AI Spending: Investors are wary of Oracle's AI expenditures, especially after its announcement to raise $50 billion for new data centers, and while its client list includes industry giants like Nvidia and Meta, concerns about OpenAI's funding capabilities may impact its stock performance.
- Large-Cap Tech Underperformance: As of February 4, 2026, large-cap tech stocks have declined approximately 3%, making them the worst-performing sector, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and excessive AI spending, which may increase the risk of a market correction.
- Microsoft's Investment Appeal: Microsoft reported a 66% year-over-year increase in capital expenditures in Q2 2026, and despite a slowdown in growth for its AI cloud engine Azure, its remaining performance obligation rose 110% to $625 billion, making it attractive for long-term investors with a current P/E ratio of 26, below the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 averages.
- Oracle's Potential Upside: Oracle's stock is rated by Wall Street analysts to have an 88% upside potential with a target price of around $272, despite investor concerns over its AI spending; its contract backlog surged 438% year-over-year to $523 billion, indicating strong demand for cloud computing.
- Caution on AI Spending: Investors are cautious about companies with high AI expenditures, particularly Oracle due to its $300 billion contract with OpenAI, which has raised concerns despite its increasing debt, yet it remains attractive from a valuation perspective.











