Obesity Drug Market Poised for Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy VKTX?
Source: Fool
- Market Potential: Research from Morgan Stanley estimates that the global obesity drug market could reach $150 billion by 2035, a significant increase from $15 billion in 2024, highlighting substantial investment opportunities in this sector.
- Competitive Landscape: While Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate the market, Viking Therapeutics, valued at $3.3 billion, is developing its first drug, VK2735, which could carve out a competitive position in the future.
- R&D Progress: The subcutaneous version of VK2735 is in phase 3 trials with an estimated completion in 2027, while the oral version has just completed phase 2a; despite potential delays until 2028 for market entry, clinical trials indicate strong competitive potential.
- Investment Return Potential: If the obesity drug market reaches $100 billion by 2035 and Viking Therapeutics captures a 5% market share, its market cap could soar to $25 billion, offering investors a return exceeding seven times the current stock price, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
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Analyst Views on VKTX
Wall Street analysts forecast VKTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VKTX is 97.00 USD with a low forecast of 70.00 USD and a high forecast of 125.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 26.290
Low
70.00
Averages
97.00
High
125.00
Current: 26.290
Low
70.00
Averages
97.00
High
125.00
About VKTX
Viking Therapeutics, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that is focused on the development of therapies for the treatment of metabolic and endocrine disorders. Its clinical programs include VK2735, a novel dual agonist of the glucagon-like peptide 1 and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptors for the potential treatment of various metabolic disorders. It is evaluating an oral formulation of VK2735 in a Phase II trial. It is also developing VK2809, a novel, orally available, small molecule selective thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for the treatment of lipid and metabolic disorders. Its newest program is evaluating a series of internally developed dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonists for the treatment of obesity and other metabolic disorders. In the rare disease space, it is developing VK0214, a novel, orally available, small molecule selective thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for the potential treatment of X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of Risks and Opportunities in Healthcare Stock Investment
- Valuation Insights: While the healthcare sector's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.7, lower than the S&P 500's 22.2, Eli Lilly's high P/E of 30.6 indicates market over-optimism about its growth, significantly increasing investment risk.
- Market Dynamics: Viking Therapeutics' stock fell by 8.6% following disappointing clinical trial results in late 2025, serving as a cautionary tale for investors considering buying at the peak popularity of stocks in the healthcare sector.
- Policy Impact Assessment: The implementation of drug price negotiations mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2026 could pressure drugmakers' margins, making it essential for investors to monitor how such policy changes might affect healthcare revenues.
- Funding Flow Mechanism: In the U.S., healthcare funding comes from a mix of private insurance, public payers, and out-of-pocket spending, and understanding these funding flows and their potential shifts is crucial for investment decisions, especially in a changing policy landscape.
See More
Caution Required for Healthcare Stocks in 2026
- High Valuations: While the healthcare sector's forward P/E is 18.7, Eli Lilly's forward P/E stands at 30.6, indicating excessive market optimism about its growth, thus increasing investment risks.
- Demand and Pressure: Healthcare demand remains relatively stable during economic slowdowns, but high inflation and slowing growth may lead to political pressures that could alter drug pricing and reimbursement policies, impacting revenues and earnings.
- Stability of Payment System: The U.S. healthcare payment system, comprising private insurance, public payers, and out-of-pocket spending, is not expected to change fundamentally in 2026; however, the implementation of drug price negotiations could pressure drugmakers' margins.
- Cautious Investment: Understanding how a business generates revenue and the potential legal or policy changes that could affect profitability is crucial for investors considering healthcare stocks, to avoid blindly following trends at market peaks.
See More
Obesity Drug Market Poised for Growth
- Market Potential: Research from Morgan Stanley estimates that the global obesity drug market could reach $150 billion by 2035, a significant increase from $15 billion in 2024, highlighting substantial investment opportunities in this sector.
- Competitive Landscape: While Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate the market, Viking Therapeutics, valued at $3.3 billion, is developing its first drug, VK2735, which could carve out a competitive position in the future.
- R&D Progress: The subcutaneous version of VK2735 is in phase 3 trials with an estimated completion in 2027, while the oral version has just completed phase 2a; despite potential delays until 2028 for market entry, clinical trials indicate strong competitive potential.
- Investment Return Potential: If the obesity drug market reaches $100 billion by 2035 and Viking Therapeutics captures a 5% market share, its market cap could soar to $25 billion, offering investors a return exceeding seven times the current stock price, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Expected to Report Increased Losses in Q4
- Increased Loss Expectations: Viking Therapeutics is projected to report a Q4 2025 loss per share of $0.91, a significant increase from the $0.32 loss reported in the same quarter of 2024, indicating ongoing challenges in the clinical stage and market pressures.
- Drug Development Progress: The company's lead candidate VK2735 is currently in late-stage trials for obesity, with mid-stage trials showing an average weight loss of 14.7% over 13 weeks, providing hope for future market potential.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite a 2% drop in VKTX shares on Tuesday, retail investor sentiment shifted from 'neutral' to 'bullish', with message volume tripling in 24 hours, indicating increased market attention towards the company's future prospects.
- Strategic Partnership Potential: CEO Brian Lian noted that strategic interest in weight-loss drug deals is broader than expected, and the company is open to external collaboration, believing that partnerships with larger entities could facilitate the commercialization process.
See More
Investment Strategy Analysis for Biotech Stocks
- Viking Therapeutics Outlook: Viking Therapeutics is developing weight-loss drug VK2735, currently in phase 3 studies, and despite competition, its mid-stage results are stronger than many larger firms, with clinical progress expected in 2026 potentially boosting stock prices.
- New Drug Development: The company is also working on a new weight management candidate set to enter clinical trials this year, and if successful in clinical and regulatory aspects by 2028, it could yield long-term returns for investors.
- BioNTech Clinical Progress: Although BioNTech's financial results have been inconsistent, its cancer drug BNT113 is undergoing late-stage trials and has received FDA Fast Track designation, with important data expected this year that could enhance market performance.
- Rich Drug Pipeline: BioNTech is also advancing Trastuzumab Pamirtecan for endometrial cancer in phase 3 studies, and if these drugs are launched in the coming years, it will significantly improve financial results, thus providing superior returns for shareholders.
See More
Eli Lilly vs. Viking: Who Will Dominate Weight Loss Market?
- Market Leadership of Eli Lilly: Eli Lilly's weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound generated over $10 billion in sales last quarter, demonstrating strong growth potential in the weight loss market while solidifying the company's leadership against Novo Nordisk.
- Regulatory Catalyst for New Drug: Lilly is seeking regulatory approval for its oral weight loss drug orforglipron, and if approved, it could act as a positive catalyst for stock performance, further boosting its market share.
- Clinical Progress of Viking: Viking's injectable and oral candidates are meeting trial goals, and the company ended the last quarter with over $700 million in cash, providing robust support for clinical development and indicating future growth potential.
- Market Opportunities and Risks: Although Viking has no products on the market yet, its market value of nearly $4 billion suggests significant upside potential if it secures regulatory approval and begins generating product revenue, positioning it as a potential millionaire-maker stock.
See More
Analysis of Risks and Opportunities in Healthcare Stock Investment
- Valuation Insights: While the healthcare sector's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.7, lower than the S&P 500's 22.2, Eli Lilly's high P/E of 30.6 indicates market over-optimism about its growth, significantly increasing investment risk.
- Market Dynamics: Viking Therapeutics' stock fell by 8.6% following disappointing clinical trial results in late 2025, serving as a cautionary tale for investors considering buying at the peak popularity of stocks in the healthcare sector.
- Policy Impact Assessment: The implementation of drug price negotiations mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2026 could pressure drugmakers' margins, making it essential for investors to monitor how such policy changes might affect healthcare revenues.
- Funding Flow Mechanism: In the U.S., healthcare funding comes from a mix of private insurance, public payers, and out-of-pocket spending, and understanding these funding flows and their potential shifts is crucial for investment decisions, especially in a changing policy landscape.
See More
Caution Required for Healthcare Stocks in 2026
- High Valuations: While the healthcare sector's forward P/E is 18.7, Eli Lilly's forward P/E stands at 30.6, indicating excessive market optimism about its growth, thus increasing investment risks.
- Demand and Pressure: Healthcare demand remains relatively stable during economic slowdowns, but high inflation and slowing growth may lead to political pressures that could alter drug pricing and reimbursement policies, impacting revenues and earnings.
- Stability of Payment System: The U.S. healthcare payment system, comprising private insurance, public payers, and out-of-pocket spending, is not expected to change fundamentally in 2026; however, the implementation of drug price negotiations could pressure drugmakers' margins.
- Cautious Investment: Understanding how a business generates revenue and the potential legal or policy changes that could affect profitability is crucial for investors considering healthcare stocks, to avoid blindly following trends at market peaks.
See More
Obesity Drug Market Poised for Growth
- Market Potential: Research from Morgan Stanley estimates that the global obesity drug market could reach $150 billion by 2035, a significant increase from $15 billion in 2024, highlighting substantial investment opportunities in this sector.
- Competitive Landscape: While Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate the market, Viking Therapeutics, valued at $3.3 billion, is developing its first drug, VK2735, which could carve out a competitive position in the future.
- R&D Progress: The subcutaneous version of VK2735 is in phase 3 trials with an estimated completion in 2027, while the oral version has just completed phase 2a; despite potential delays until 2028 for market entry, clinical trials indicate strong competitive potential.
- Investment Return Potential: If the obesity drug market reaches $100 billion by 2035 and Viking Therapeutics captures a 5% market share, its market cap could soar to $25 billion, offering investors a return exceeding seven times the current stock price, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Expected to Report Increased Losses in Q4
- Increased Loss Expectations: Viking Therapeutics is projected to report a Q4 2025 loss per share of $0.91, a significant increase from the $0.32 loss reported in the same quarter of 2024, indicating ongoing challenges in the clinical stage and market pressures.
- Drug Development Progress: The company's lead candidate VK2735 is currently in late-stage trials for obesity, with mid-stage trials showing an average weight loss of 14.7% over 13 weeks, providing hope for future market potential.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite a 2% drop in VKTX shares on Tuesday, retail investor sentiment shifted from 'neutral' to 'bullish', with message volume tripling in 24 hours, indicating increased market attention towards the company's future prospects.
- Strategic Partnership Potential: CEO Brian Lian noted that strategic interest in weight-loss drug deals is broader than expected, and the company is open to external collaboration, believing that partnerships with larger entities could facilitate the commercialization process.
See More
Investment Strategy Analysis for Biotech Stocks
- Viking Therapeutics Outlook: Viking Therapeutics is developing weight-loss drug VK2735, currently in phase 3 studies, and despite competition, its mid-stage results are stronger than many larger firms, with clinical progress expected in 2026 potentially boosting stock prices.
- New Drug Development: The company is also working on a new weight management candidate set to enter clinical trials this year, and if successful in clinical and regulatory aspects by 2028, it could yield long-term returns for investors.
- BioNTech Clinical Progress: Although BioNTech's financial results have been inconsistent, its cancer drug BNT113 is undergoing late-stage trials and has received FDA Fast Track designation, with important data expected this year that could enhance market performance.
- Rich Drug Pipeline: BioNTech is also advancing Trastuzumab Pamirtecan for endometrial cancer in phase 3 studies, and if these drugs are launched in the coming years, it will significantly improve financial results, thus providing superior returns for shareholders.
See More
Eli Lilly vs. Viking: Who Will Dominate Weight Loss Market?
- Market Leadership of Eli Lilly: Eli Lilly's weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound generated over $10 billion in sales last quarter, demonstrating strong growth potential in the weight loss market while solidifying the company's leadership against Novo Nordisk.
- Regulatory Catalyst for New Drug: Lilly is seeking regulatory approval for its oral weight loss drug orforglipron, and if approved, it could act as a positive catalyst for stock performance, further boosting its market share.
- Clinical Progress of Viking: Viking's injectable and oral candidates are meeting trial goals, and the company ended the last quarter with over $700 million in cash, providing robust support for clinical development and indicating future growth potential.
- Market Opportunities and Risks: Although Viking has no products on the market yet, its market value of nearly $4 billion suggests significant upside potential if it secures regulatory approval and begins generating product revenue, positioning it as a potential millionaire-maker stock.
See More
