No Wonder Walmart (NYSE:WMT) Is Down 10% When Consumer Sentiment is This Bad
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 24 2025
0mins
Should l Buy DLTR?
Source: TipRanks
Walmart's Stock Decline: Walmart's shares dropped 10% following weak guidance for the upcoming year, reflecting concerns over consumer sentiment and economic conditions, including rising inflation expectations and a decline in spending among lower-income households.
Consumer Spending Trends: The top 10% of earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, while low-income and middle-class households have reduced their expenditures, prompting Walmart to forecast slower revenue growth than previously anticipated.
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Analyst Views on DLTR
Wall Street analysts forecast DLTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DLTR is 126.00 USD with a low forecast of 75.00 USD and a high forecast of 150.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
6 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 119.600
Low
75.00
Averages
126.00
High
150.00
Current: 119.600
Low
75.00
Averages
126.00
High
150.00
About DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc. is an operator of retail discount stores operating under the brand names of Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada. The Company operates approximately 9,000 stores and 18 distribution centers across 48 contiguous states and five Canadian provinces. The Dollar Tree segment operates a discount variety of stores offering merchandise at the opening price point. The Dollar Tree segment includes its operations under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. Its Dollar Tree Canada stores carry a range of products such as kitchen and dining, cleaning supplies, food and beverages, health and beauty, toys, party supplies, stationery, craft supplies, seasonal decor, and others. It also offers customers same-day local delivery. The Company also offers Dollar Tree Gift Cards and can be purchased in stores and online and redeemed in any one of its store locations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Discount Retailers Show Strong Performance Amid Inflation
- Discount Retail Stock Performance: As of 2026, discount retail stocks in the S&P 500, such as Walmart and Costco, have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index, with Walmart up 5.8% year-to-date and 26.6% over the past 52 weeks, indicating strong consumer demand for discount retail.
- Consumer Shift to Discount Stores: Due to inflation, 28% of high-income households shopped at discount chains in 2025, up from 20% four years earlier, suggesting that discount retailers are attracting a broader consumer base.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: In Q4 2025, same-store sales increased by 4.2% at Walmart and 5.7% at Costco, reflecting consumer preference for discounted goods in a high-price environment, further boosting these retailers' performance.
- Future Inflation Expectations: Although the inflation rate has decreased from 9% in June 2022 to around 2.7%, economists expect inflation to remain elevated through 2026, which will continue to benefit discount retailers as consumers remain price-sensitive.
See More
Trump's Affordability Push Likely to Benefit Low-Income Consumer Stocks
- Policy Shift: The Trump administration is expected to enhance affordability efforts ahead of the midterm elections, targeting low-income consumers, with anticipated changes likely to reshape market dynamics despite current limited impact.
- Beneficiary Companies: Analyst Lakos-Bujas highlighted that retailers like Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG), along with financial firms such as Citigroup (C) and Western Union (WU), are poised to benefit, reflecting a focus on the low-end consumer segment.
- Market Performance: Despite a recent downgrade, Dollar Tree's stock has surged over 78% in the past year, while Walmart (WMT) has seen a 25% increase due to a surge in AI-driven traffic, indicating sustained demand for low-cost goods.
- Industry Trends: The S&P Retail Select Industry Index (SPSIRE) has gained over 10% in the past year, highlighting strong performance among discount retailers and reflecting a growing consumer demand for affordability.
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- Policy Shift: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas notes that while the White House's affordability efforts have had limited impact so far, the Trump administration is expected to ramp up efforts ahead of the midterm elections, potentially boosting low-income consumer spending power.
- Value Stock Preference: Lakos-Bujas reiterated his tactical preference for stocks sensitive to low-end consumers, believing that tax cuts and sliding gasoline prices will positively impact these companies, especially in a high-inflation environment.
- Company Performance: JPMorgan identified companies linked to low-income consumers, including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, with the former's stock surging about 75% in 2025 and the latter over 64%, indicating strong market performance.
- Analyst Ratings: While Dollar General holds a buy rating, Dollar Tree is rated hold, with both expected to pull back around 4% in the next year; however, analysts are optimistic about Upstart Holdings, projecting over 35% upside potential.
See More
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Raises 2025 EPS Outlook Amid Downgrade by BNP Paribas
- Weak Sales Environment: BNP Paribas downgraded Dollar Tree from 'Neutral' to 'Underperform', citing a more tepid sales environment due to intensified macroeconomic pressures, resulting in an approximately 8% decline in stock price over the past three sessions.
- Earnings Outlook Raised: Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2025 earnings per share forecast to a range of $5.60 to $5.80, up from the previous estimate of $5.32 to $5.72, indicating the company's confidence in future profitability despite current challenges.
- Sales Guidance Updated: The company projected net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion, with comparable sales growth of 5% to 5.5%, an improvement from earlier forecasts, reflecting a more optimistic view on market demand.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite the stock's decline, retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from 'bearish' to 'neutral', suggesting that investors remain cautiously optimistic about Dollar Tree's long-term prospects.
See More
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- Market Rebound: The S&P 500 index rose by 1.06%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.97%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 1.33%, reflecting a positive market reaction to Trump's Greenland acquisition negotiations, alleviating Tuesday's sell-off pressure.
- Geopolitical Risks: Trump's statement about seeking immediate negotiations to acquire Greenland, labeling it as part of North America, has raised concerns about potential trade confrontations with Europe, which could impact future market stability.
- Natural Gas Surge: Natural gas prices surged over 21% to a six-week high, driven by an impending cold front in the eastern U.S. that boosts heating demand, potentially disrupting production and further stimulating related stock gains.
- Economic Data Focus: U.S. MBA mortgage applications rose by 14.1% in the week ending January 16, indicating a rebound in home-buying demand, while December pending home sales fell by 9.3%, suggesting ongoing market challenges, prompting investors to watch upcoming economic data closely.
See More
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Faces Rising Costs and Competitive Pressures, Downgraded to Underperform
- Cost Pressure: BNP Paribas analyst Chris Bottiglieri highlights that inflation and de-globalization have forced Dollar Tree to deviate from its long-term $1 moat, leading to rising operational costs that are expected to compress margins.
- Earnings Downgrade: The analyst downgraded Dollar Tree's rating from Neutral to Underperform and cut the target price by 26% to $87, indicating a 35% downside from the prior close, reflecting concerns over the company's future profitability.
- Demand Challenges: The company faces demand challenges from changes in taxes, food stamp benefits, GLP-1 adoption, and agentic commerce, which will further compress margins, factors that the analyst believes investors are ignoring.
- Cautious Market Consensus: Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha authors share a conservative outlook for Dollar Tree, with a consensus Hold rating reflecting concerns over the current valuation, despite the stock rising 77% year-over-year and recently hitting a 22-month high.
See More
Discount Retailers Show Strong Performance Amid Inflation
- Discount Retail Stock Performance: As of 2026, discount retail stocks in the S&P 500, such as Walmart and Costco, have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index, with Walmart up 5.8% year-to-date and 26.6% over the past 52 weeks, indicating strong consumer demand for discount retail.
- Consumer Shift to Discount Stores: Due to inflation, 28% of high-income households shopped at discount chains in 2025, up from 20% four years earlier, suggesting that discount retailers are attracting a broader consumer base.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: In Q4 2025, same-store sales increased by 4.2% at Walmart and 5.7% at Costco, reflecting consumer preference for discounted goods in a high-price environment, further boosting these retailers' performance.
- Future Inflation Expectations: Although the inflation rate has decreased from 9% in June 2022 to around 2.7%, economists expect inflation to remain elevated through 2026, which will continue to benefit discount retailers as consumers remain price-sensitive.
See More
Trump's Affordability Push Likely to Benefit Low-Income Consumer Stocks
- Policy Shift: The Trump administration is expected to enhance affordability efforts ahead of the midterm elections, targeting low-income consumers, with anticipated changes likely to reshape market dynamics despite current limited impact.
- Beneficiary Companies: Analyst Lakos-Bujas highlighted that retailers like Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG), along with financial firms such as Citigroup (C) and Western Union (WU), are poised to benefit, reflecting a focus on the low-end consumer segment.
- Market Performance: Despite a recent downgrade, Dollar Tree's stock has surged over 78% in the past year, while Walmart (WMT) has seen a 25% increase due to a surge in AI-driven traffic, indicating sustained demand for low-cost goods.
- Industry Trends: The S&P Retail Select Industry Index (SPSIRE) has gained over 10% in the past year, highlighting strong performance among discount retailers and reflecting a growing consumer demand for affordability.
See More
JPMorgan Sees Value Stocks Benefiting Low-Income Consumers Amid Affordability Efforts
- Policy Shift: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas notes that while the White House's affordability efforts have had limited impact so far, the Trump administration is expected to ramp up efforts ahead of the midterm elections, potentially boosting low-income consumer spending power.
- Value Stock Preference: Lakos-Bujas reiterated his tactical preference for stocks sensitive to low-end consumers, believing that tax cuts and sliding gasoline prices will positively impact these companies, especially in a high-inflation environment.
- Company Performance: JPMorgan identified companies linked to low-income consumers, including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, with the former's stock surging about 75% in 2025 and the latter over 64%, indicating strong market performance.
- Analyst Ratings: While Dollar General holds a buy rating, Dollar Tree is rated hold, with both expected to pull back around 4% in the next year; however, analysts are optimistic about Upstart Holdings, projecting over 35% upside potential.
See More
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Raises 2025 EPS Outlook Amid Downgrade by BNP Paribas
- Weak Sales Environment: BNP Paribas downgraded Dollar Tree from 'Neutral' to 'Underperform', citing a more tepid sales environment due to intensified macroeconomic pressures, resulting in an approximately 8% decline in stock price over the past three sessions.
- Earnings Outlook Raised: Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2025 earnings per share forecast to a range of $5.60 to $5.80, up from the previous estimate of $5.32 to $5.72, indicating the company's confidence in future profitability despite current challenges.
- Sales Guidance Updated: The company projected net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion, with comparable sales growth of 5% to 5.5%, an improvement from earlier forecasts, reflecting a more optimistic view on market demand.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite the stock's decline, retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from 'bearish' to 'neutral', suggesting that investors remain cautiously optimistic about Dollar Tree's long-term prospects.
See More
Trump Seeks Greenland Acquisition, Stock Market Rises 1.06%
- Market Rebound: The S&P 500 index rose by 1.06%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.97%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 1.33%, reflecting a positive market reaction to Trump's Greenland acquisition negotiations, alleviating Tuesday's sell-off pressure.
- Geopolitical Risks: Trump's statement about seeking immediate negotiations to acquire Greenland, labeling it as part of North America, has raised concerns about potential trade confrontations with Europe, which could impact future market stability.
- Natural Gas Surge: Natural gas prices surged over 21% to a six-week high, driven by an impending cold front in the eastern U.S. that boosts heating demand, potentially disrupting production and further stimulating related stock gains.
- Economic Data Focus: U.S. MBA mortgage applications rose by 14.1% in the week ending January 16, indicating a rebound in home-buying demand, while December pending home sales fell by 9.3%, suggesting ongoing market challenges, prompting investors to watch upcoming economic data closely.
See More
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Faces Rising Costs and Competitive Pressures, Downgraded to Underperform
- Cost Pressure: BNP Paribas analyst Chris Bottiglieri highlights that inflation and de-globalization have forced Dollar Tree to deviate from its long-term $1 moat, leading to rising operational costs that are expected to compress margins.
- Earnings Downgrade: The analyst downgraded Dollar Tree's rating from Neutral to Underperform and cut the target price by 26% to $87, indicating a 35% downside from the prior close, reflecting concerns over the company's future profitability.
- Demand Challenges: The company faces demand challenges from changes in taxes, food stamp benefits, GLP-1 adoption, and agentic commerce, which will further compress margins, factors that the analyst believes investors are ignoring.
- Cautious Market Consensus: Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha authors share a conservative outlook for Dollar Tree, with a consensus Hold rating reflecting concerns over the current valuation, despite the stock rising 77% year-over-year and recently hitting a 22-month high.
See More
