New York City Takes Center Stage as Casino License Decision Day Approaches

Gambling Loss Deductibility Changes: A new law set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will limit the deductibility of gambling losses to 90%, prompting concerns from lawmakers and industry groups about the potential negative impact on high-volume and professional bettors.

Phantom Income Tax Concerns: Gamblers who break even could still face taxes on "phantom" winnings, which may drive high-stakes gamblers to illegal offshore operators and discourage overall participation in legal betting, potentially harming casino and sportsbook revenues.

Legislative Efforts for Repeal: Representative Dina Titus has introduced the FAIR BET Act to restore full deductibility of gambling losses, arguing that the 90% cap forces taxpayers to pay taxes on income they do not actually retain.

Industry Support for Repeal: Major casino CEOs have collaborated with the American Gaming Association to rally support against the 90% cap, emphasizing the need to prevent it from becoming law during year-end tax negotiations.

Casino License Awards: New York is set to award up to three casino licenses for the NYC region on December 1, with a public meeting scheduled at the CUNY Graduate Center.

Community Review Impact: High-profile bids like Caesars Palace Times Square withdrew due to local opposition, leading to only three remaining contenders: Resorts World New York City, Bally's Bronx project, and the Metropolitan Park casino.

Projected Opening Dates: If awarded a license, Resorts World could start gambling by mid-2026, while the other two projects are not expected to open until around 2030.

Market Context: The article also touches on the performance of casino stocks and the broader gaming market, including the recovery in Macau and the launch of sports betting in Missouri.

Missouri Sports Betting Launch: Missouri officially launched legal sports betting on December 1, 2024, with an expected first-year handle of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion, supported by national brands and local partnerships.

Regulatory Framework: The legalization, driven by voter-approved Amendment 2, allows for up to 14 online licenses, with the Missouri Gaming Commission overseeing licensing and compliance.

Market Competition: Major online operators like bet365, BetMGM, and DraftKings are expected to launch, utilizing aggressive promotions to capture market share during a busy sports calendar.

Future of Sports Betting: Analysts predict that all 50 states may legalize sports betting within five years, influenced by the rise of prediction market platforms and ongoing legislative efforts in various states.

Launch of Legal Sports Betting: Missouri will launch legal sports betting statewide on December 1, 2024, with an expected first-year handle of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion, driven by competitive online markets and aggressive promotions from major brands.

Licensing and Market Access: The Missouri Gaming Commission will oversee up to 14 online licenses and numerous retail licenses, with major players like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM expected to lead the market, leveraging partnerships with local teams and casinos.

Key Players and Strategies: DraftKings and Circa Sports hold untethered licenses, allowing them to operate without casino partnerships, while FanDuel is anticipated to dominate market share through its national presence and innovative betting options.

Emerging Competitors: Other notable entrants include bet365, Fanatics, and Underdog Sports, each employing unique strategies such as merchandise integration and modern tech to enhance user experience in the competitive landscape.

MoviePass Launches Mogul Platform: MoviePass has introduced the Mogul platform, allowing users to create movie teams and compete in contests based on box office results and critical ratings, resembling a fantasy sports experience in the film industry.

Unique Entertainment Proposition: The platform aims to redefine the moviegoing experience by leveraging audience sentiment and film performance, distinguishing itself from traditional prediction markets and sports betting.

Company's Evolution and History: After a tumultuous past, including a shutdown in 2019, MoviePass has achieved profitability in 2023 and is now backed by significant investments, marking a successful turnaround.

Industry Impact: The evolution of MoviePass and its new offerings could attract attention from major players in the film sector, potentially influencing the broader entertainment landscape.

Analyst Insights: Texas Capital Securities analyst David Bain believes that fears regarding prediction markets are exaggerated, noting that Kalshi's reported trading volume may not be as significant as it appears.

Market Outlook: Bain anticipates a strong U.S. online sports market handle of over $17 billion in September and suggests that the current stock weakness in online gaming presents a buying opportunity for investors.