National Vision Enhances FY25 Forecast; Q3 Adjusted EPS Matches Expectations, Revenues Exceed - Update
Financial Guidance Update: National Vision Holdings, Inc. raised its full-year 2025 guidance for adjusted earnings to $0.63 to $0.71 per share, with net revenue projected between $1.970 billion and $1.988 billion, and comparable store sales growth of 5.0 to 6.0 percent.
Previous Expectations: The company's prior guidance estimated adjusted net earnings of $0.62 to $0.70 per share and net revenue between $1.934 billion and $1.970 billion, with comparable store sales growth of 3.0 to 5.0 percent.
Third Quarter Performance: For Q3, National Vision reported a net income of $3.37 million ($0.04 per share), a recovery from a net loss of $8.47 million in the same quarter last year, with adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share.
Revenue Growth: Total net revenues for Q3 increased by 7.9% to $487.33 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $473.12 million, with comparable store sales growth reported at 6.8%.
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Retail Spending Trends: As Thanksgiving approaches, consumer spending has increased, with a 2.4% rise in total card spending per household in October, driven largely by inflation rather than increased demand, as retail transaction volumes have been declining.
Income Disparity in Spending: Spending growth is uneven, with higher-income households seeing a 2.7% increase in spending, while lower-income households only managed 0.7% growth, highlighting a K-shaped economy where wealth effects benefit the affluent.
AI in Retail: This holiday season marks a significant rise in the use of artificial intelligence in shopping, with tools like Amazon's AI assistant and ChatGPT driving increased referrals to retail websites, indicating a growing trend among consumers.
Retail Stock Performance: The retail sector has seen varied stock performance, with top performers like ThredUp and National Vision Holdings thriving, while companies like Deckers Outdoor and Bath & Body Works struggle due to changing consumer preferences and economic pressures.
Put Contract Overview: The $25.00 put contract for EYE stock has a bid of $1.35, allowing investors to buy shares at an effective cost of $23.65, which is an 11% discount from the current price of $28.11. There is a 71% chance the contract may expire worthless, offering a potential 5.40% return on cash commitment.
Call Contract Overview: The $30.00 call contract has a bid of $2.80, and if shares are purchased at $28.11 and the call is sold, it could yield a total return of 16.68% if exercised by July 2026. There is a 45% chance this contract may also expire worthless, providing a potential 9.96% additional return.
Volatility Insights: The implied volatility for the put contract is 58%, while the call contract's implied volatility is 53%. The actual trailing twelve-month volatility is calculated at 48%.
YieldBoost Concept: Both the put and call contracts offer a "YieldBoost," with the put providing a 5.40% return and the call offering a 9.96% boost, highlighting the potential for additional returns through options trading strategies.

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- Company Overview: National Vision Holdings (EYE) has received an average rating of Overweight from analysts.
- Price Target: The mean price target for National Vision Holdings is set at $32.70.

Fiscal Outlook: National Vision Holdings (EYE) has reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 outlook, expecting annual net revenue growth in the high-single-digits and an adjusted operating margin expansion of 50 to 150 basis points through fiscal 2030.
Capital Allocation Strategy: The company plans to maintain a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with capital expenditures projected to be around 4-5% of annual revenue until 2030.
Store Expansion Plans: National Vision aims to open approximately 30 new stores per year between 2026 and 2027, and plans to accelerate this to about 60 stores per year from 2028 to 2030.
Cost Structure Review: A multi-year plan has been identified to achieve approximately $20 million in annualized savings, with about half expected to be realized in fiscal 2026.








