National Fuel Q1 Revenue at $651.51M, Below Consensus
Reports Q1 revenue $651.51M, consensus $653.76M. CEO David Bauer stated: "National Fuel's Q1 results were a great start to the fiscal year. Strong operational execution within our Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment continues to deliver growing production and increasing cash flow generation. When combined with ongoing growth in our regulated businesses, adjusted EPS increased 24% over the prior year. At our non-regulated business, an expanding inventory of high-quality Appalachian development locations, most recently bolstered by the addition of approximately 200 prospective Upper Utica drilling locations, along with ongoing well design optimization, positions us for continued success in driving capital efficiency improvements. On the regulated side, our focus remains on delivering growth while maintaining our long track record of customer affordability. We've made great progress on our Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral expansion projects, both of which remain on track to be in service later this calendar year. These projects, along with our pending natural gas utility acquisition in Ohio, provide strong catalysts for growth as we look to FY27. Altogether, the outlook across National Fuel is exceptionally strong. We remain focused on executing on our plan to deliver long-term growth in earnings and free cash flow, which in turn should create meaningful value for shareholders."
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- Share Increase: GAMCO Investors increased its stake in National Fuel Gas Company by 37,056 shares during Q4 2025, with an estimated trade value of $3.05 million, indicating long-term confidence in the company.
- Value Fluctuation: By quarter-end, GAMCO's stake in National Fuel was valued at $115.73 million, a decrease of $14.37 million from the previous period, reflecting the impact of market volatility on the investment portfolio.
- Performance Metrics: National Fuel Gas Company reported adjusted earnings of $2.06 per share for Q1 2025, a 24% year-over-year increase driven by higher natural gas production and steady growth in its utility segment.
- Business Model Strength: The company's integrated structure, combining upstream and midstream operations, provides stable cash flows, enhancing its competitive position in the U.S. energy market, allowing it to maintain better stock performance despite commodity price fluctuations.
- Stable Earnings Performance: National Fuel Gas Company reported adjusted EPS of $2.06 for Q1, aligning with expectations and demonstrating operational stability during challenging winter conditions.
- Significant EBITDA Growth: The integrated upstream and gathering segment saw a 29% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by a three-year rate settlement in New York and pipeline modernization efforts in Pennsylvania, strengthening the company's financial foundation.
- Production and Capital Efficiency Gains: The company achieved net production of 109 Bcf in the first quarter, a 12% increase year-over-year, while capital efficiency improved by 30% since 2023, laying a solid groundwork for future growth.
- Acquisition Progress on Track: National Fuel completed a $350 million private placement of common stock to meet equity needs for the CenterPoint Ohio acquisition, which is expected to further drive market expansion and financial stability.
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- Earnings Announcement: National Fuel Gas is set to announce its Q1 earnings on January 28 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.92, reflecting a 15.7% year-over-year increase, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 is $653.76 million, representing a 19.0% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by strategic investments in capital efficiency and the expansion of Tioga Utica inventory.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, National Fuel Gas has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 13% of the time, showcasing the company's reliability in meeting earnings forecasts.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward and one downward revision, indicating some divergence in market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.

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- Acquisition Strategy: National Fuel Gas Company is acquiring CenterPoint Energy's Ohio natural gas utility business for $2.5 billion, expected to expand its customer base to approximately 1.1 million, significantly enhancing its competitive position in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio markets.
- Financial Performance: For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, adjusted earnings per share reached $1.22, a 58% increase year-over-year, with total revenue of $2.28 billion, up 17%, demonstrating the company's strong profitability and growth potential.
- Dividend Stability: National Fuel has increased its dividend for 55 consecutive years, with a current quarterly dividend of 53.5 cents per share yielding approximately 2.6% annually, indicating a sustainable dividend policy supported by stable cash flows and future growth potential.
- Pipeline Expansion Projects: The company is advancing several pipeline expansion projects, including the Shippingport Lateral, which is expected to generate approximately $15 million in annual revenue, further solidifying its position in emerging markets.








