National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) Shows Strong Fundamentals: Is the Market Misjudging the Stock?
National Beverage's Stock Performance: The company's stock has declined by 20% over the past three months, despite having a strong return on equity (ROE) of 37%, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 21%.
Earnings Growth Concerns: Despite the high ROE, National Beverage's net income growth over the past five years has been low at 3.1%, which is below the industry average of 6.9%, raising concerns about potential external factors affecting growth.
Retention of Earnings: National Beverage does not pay regular dividends, retaining all earnings, yet this has not translated into expected growth, suggesting possible issues with capital allocation or other business challenges.
Investment Considerations: While there are positive aspects to National Beverage's financials, the lack of strong earnings growth despite high ROE indicates potential risks that investors should consider when evaluating the stock's future prospects.
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- ETF Performance: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) underperformed in Q4 with a marginal loss of 0.73%, contrasting with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gain of 2%, indicating a defensive lag in risk-on market conditions.
- Quant Rating Analysis: According to Seeking Alpha's quant model, XLP received a rating of 2.28, ranking as the second-lowest among 11 sector-based ETFs, only above the real estate ETF (XLRE), reflecting a lack of market confidence in consumer staples.
- Stock Rating Highlights: Ambev (ABEV) achieved a Strong Buy rating of 4.86, while United Natural Foods (UNFI) received a rating of 4.73, indicating these companies' relative strength in the current economic environment, potentially attracting investor interest.
- Future Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs Research noted that despite structural headwinds in the consumer staples sector, attractive and profitable categories such as nicotine, energy drinks, and beauty products are still worth investing in for 2026, suggesting optimism in specific sub-sectors.

- Ongoing Support: National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) celebrates its 32nd anniversary of partnership with St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, reaffirming its commitment to advancing cures and prevention for pediatric catastrophic diseases, highlighting the company's dedication to social responsibility.
- Charitable Commitment: CEO Nick A. Caporella emphasizes that St. Jude provides families with treatment, travel, housing, and food at no cost, allowing them to focus on their child's recovery, reflecting National Beverage's deep concern for children's health.
- Call to Action: Caporella urges the public to join in supporting St. Jude's mission, stressing the importance of bringing hope and miracles to deserving children, which further enhances the company's brand image in terms of social responsibility.
- Donation Channels: The public can donate online or by phone, with National Beverage encouraging broader participation in helping children, thereby promoting societal awareness of children's health issues.
Earnings Report: National Beverage (FIZZ) announced fiscal Q2 earnings of $0.49 per diluted share, which remained unchanged from the previous period.
Market Reaction: The earnings report was released late Thursday, indicating the company's performance during the quarter.
- Sales Performance: For the second quarter ended November 1, 2025, National Beverage Corp. reported net sales of $288 million, reflecting a slight decline due to inflation and rising commodity costs, yet demonstrating the company's resilience in the current economic environment.
- Profitability Improvement: Operating income increased to $58 million with basic earnings per share reaching $0.50, indicating that the company successfully enhanced profitability through price and mix improvements despite external challenges.
- Cash Flow Status: As of November 1, 2025, the company's cash reserves increased by $156 million to $269 million, showcasing strong cash flow and financial health, which supports future investments and shareholder returns.
- Stock Buyback Program: During the second quarter, the company repurchased 20,000 shares of FIZZ, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future performance and commitment to creating value for shareholders.

Share Buyback Announcement: National Beverage Corp. has initiated open market purchases of its common stock as part of a previously announced share buyback program, with further details to be released later.
Impact of Geopolitical Factors: The company acknowledges that geopolitical challenges, including a government shutdown and consumer spending reductions, have affected the beverage sector, but believes these issues are temporary.
Commitment to Innovation and Growth: National Beverage Corp. emphasizes its strong financial position and commitment to innovation, aiming to enhance shareholder returns and expand its market presence in the sparkling water category.
Forward-Looking Statements: The press release includes forward-looking statements that carry risks and uncertainties, with the company disclaiming any obligation to update these statements in the future.
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