Modi Likely to Win Election: Time to Buy India ETFs Now?
- India's Stock Market Performance: India's stock market, with ETFs like EPI, PIN, and INCO, has shown strong gains recently, outperforming the S&P 500.
- General Election in India: India is in the midst of a general election, with Prime Minister Modi expected to win another term, supported by significant investments from U.S. tech giants.
- IMF's GDP Growth Forecast for India: The IMF raised India's GDP growth projection for 2024-25 to 6.8%, citing resilient domestic demand, with a forecast of 6.5% for the following fiscal year.
- India's Tech and Business Ambitions: India is positioning itself as a global hub for technology and business, attracting investments from major tech companies and chipmakers.
- Potential Fed Rate Cut Impact: The Fed may cut interest rates by late 2024, which could weaken the U.S. dollar, benefiting emerging market currencies like India's economy.
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Upcoming Week for FX and Bonds: Spotlight on U.K. Autumn Budget and U.S. Economic Data
U.K. Autumn Budget: The U.K. autumn budget is set to be announced, with Treasury chief Rachel Reeves expected to propose tax increases to address public finances, though specific details remain uncertain following a reported reversal on income-tax hikes.
U.S. Federal Reserve Uncertainty: In the U.S., there is ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision for December, leading to increased market scrutiny of economic data.
Thanksgiving Market Impact: The upcoming week will be shortened due to Thanksgiving, with bond and stock markets closed on Thursday and closing early on Friday.
Market Reactions: Investors are likely to react to both the U.K. budget announcements and U.S. economic data as they navigate the holiday-shortened trading week.
The U.S. Economy's Resilience Against Pessimistic Tariff Forecasts
Impact of Tariffs: President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs in April raised concerns among economists about potential inflation and recession.
Consumer Behavior: In response to anticipated price increases, companies and consumers began stockpiling goods.
Current Economic Situation: Despite initial fears, inflation is lower than expected, and the economy continues to grow.
Tariff Context: The tariffs implemented are the steepest seen in almost a century, yet their predicted negative effects have not fully materialized.
How One Big Private-Equity Fund Makes Its Numbers Incomprehensible
Transparency in Fund Management: While some fund managers prioritize transparency in financial disclosures, others remain uncooperative, creating challenges for investors.
Private Equity Accessibility: The private equity industry is under scrutiny as President Trump signed an order to allow broader access to alternative investments like private equity in 401(k) accounts, prompting calls for investigations into valuation practices by institutions like Harvard.
JD Vance arrives in India, set for trade talks with PM Modi
JD Vance's Visit to India: US Vice-President JD Vance is in India for a four-day visit to discuss tariffs and bilateral trade with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emphasizing shared economic and geopolitical priorities.
Recent Developments: The visit follows a recent trip by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and comes amid ongoing discussions about tariffs imposed on India, as well as Elon Musk's planned visit after talks with Modi.
Friday's ETF with Unusual Volume: PIN
ETF Trading Highlights: The Spdr Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-bill ETF had a flat trading session with over 2.9 million shares, while TRIP.COM Group rose by 2.3% on more than 2.8 million shares traded.
Top and Bottom Performers: Container Store saw the highest gain at 10.4%, whereas Impinj experienced a decline of about 6.3% within the Invesco India ETF.
India’s Economy Slows More Than Expected, Potentially Clearing Path for Rate Cuts
Economic Growth Rate: India's economy grew by 5.4% in the July-September quarter, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2022 and falling short of central bank expectations.
Interest Rate Implications: The significant slowdown in economic growth may support arguments for an interest-rate cut in the upcoming week.
Upcoming Week for FX and Bonds: Spotlight on U.K. Autumn Budget and U.S. Economic Data
U.K. Autumn Budget: The U.K. autumn budget is set to be announced, with Treasury chief Rachel Reeves expected to propose tax increases to address public finances, though specific details remain uncertain following a reported reversal on income-tax hikes.
U.S. Federal Reserve Uncertainty: In the U.S., there is ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision for December, leading to increased market scrutiny of economic data.
Thanksgiving Market Impact: The upcoming week will be shortened due to Thanksgiving, with bond and stock markets closed on Thursday and closing early on Friday.
Market Reactions: Investors are likely to react to both the U.K. budget announcements and U.S. economic data as they navigate the holiday-shortened trading week.
The U.S. Economy's Resilience Against Pessimistic Tariff Forecasts
Impact of Tariffs: President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs in April raised concerns among economists about potential inflation and recession.
Consumer Behavior: In response to anticipated price increases, companies and consumers began stockpiling goods.
Current Economic Situation: Despite initial fears, inflation is lower than expected, and the economy continues to grow.
Tariff Context: The tariffs implemented are the steepest seen in almost a century, yet their predicted negative effects have not fully materialized.
How One Big Private-Equity Fund Makes Its Numbers Incomprehensible
Transparency in Fund Management: While some fund managers prioritize transparency in financial disclosures, others remain uncooperative, creating challenges for investors.
Private Equity Accessibility: The private equity industry is under scrutiny as President Trump signed an order to allow broader access to alternative investments like private equity in 401(k) accounts, prompting calls for investigations into valuation practices by institutions like Harvard.
JD Vance arrives in India, set for trade talks with PM Modi
JD Vance's Visit to India: US Vice-President JD Vance is in India for a four-day visit to discuss tariffs and bilateral trade with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emphasizing shared economic and geopolitical priorities.
Recent Developments: The visit follows a recent trip by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and comes amid ongoing discussions about tariffs imposed on India, as well as Elon Musk's planned visit after talks with Modi.
Friday's ETF with Unusual Volume: PIN
ETF Trading Highlights: The Spdr Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-bill ETF had a flat trading session with over 2.9 million shares, while TRIP.COM Group rose by 2.3% on more than 2.8 million shares traded.
Top and Bottom Performers: Container Store saw the highest gain at 10.4%, whereas Impinj experienced a decline of about 6.3% within the Invesco India ETF.
India’s Economy Slows More Than Expected, Potentially Clearing Path for Rate Cuts
Economic Growth Rate: India's economy grew by 5.4% in the July-September quarter, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2022 and falling short of central bank expectations.
Interest Rate Implications: The significant slowdown in economic growth may support arguments for an interest-rate cut in the upcoming week.
