Mamdani's Election Poses New Challenges for Medicare Advantage
Medicare Advantage in New York's Mayoral Race: Medicare Advantage was not a topic of discussion in the recent New York mayoral race, indicating its political unpopularity.
Candidates' Stance on Medicare: Both candidates, Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo, distanced themselves from a significant agreement that shifted 250,000 retired city workers from traditional Medicare to a privatized version.
Impact of the Agreement: The deal between New York City and major unions reflects a broader trend of privatization in healthcare, which has faced criticism from various political factions.
Political Implications: The lack of support for Medicare Advantage among candidates suggests potential challenges for its future acceptance in political discourse and policy-making.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on UNH
About UNH
About the author

- Buffett's Leadership Achievements: Buffett served as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway from 1965, achieving an average annual stock price increase of about 20%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10.3%, highlighting the success and sustainability of his investment strategies.
- Signs of DaVita's Recovery: DaVita exceeded expectations in its latest quarterly results and provided 2026 earnings guidance between $13.60 and $15, with shares surging over 30% since the earnings release, indicating restored market confidence and future growth potential.
- Investment Opportunity in Kraft Heinz: Despite Berkshire's losses in Kraft Heinz, the current market cap of around $7.5 billion and a forward P/E of 9 attract new investors, especially as the company plans to split to unlock value, reminiscent of Kellogg's successful separation strategy.
- Cautious Stance on UnitedHealth Group: Although Berkshire purchased 5 million shares last year, the stock has fallen from $350 to around $280 due to lower-than-expected Medicare payment increases, prompting investors to think twice before buying the dip given the potential for further multiple compression.
- Strong Earnings Performance: DaVita's latest quarterly results exceeded expectations, with projected earnings per share between $13.60 and $15 for 2026, resulting in a current price-to-earnings ratio of only 9 times, indicating potential for future growth and attracting investor interest.
- Stock Price Rebound: Since the earnings release, DaVita's stock has surged over 30%, reflecting market recognition of its performance and potentially providing room for multiple expansion, as it previously traded at 13 to 14 times forward earnings.
- Buffett's Investment Strategy: Despite Berkshire Hathaway's losses on its Kraft Heinz investment, currently valued at around $7.5 billion, the planned split into two entities may present opportunities for new investors, especially as Kraft Heinz trades at a mere 9 times forward earnings, below peers.
- Healthcare Sector Challenges: UnitedHealth Group's stock has fallen from $350 to around $280, primarily due to the U.S. government's lower-than-expected Medicare payment increases; although Buffett had previously purchased shares, the current 16 times forward earnings ratio indicates market concerns about its growth trajectory, warranting caution for investors.
- Drug Cost Reduction: Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, retirees will see significant reductions in prescription drug costs starting in 2026, with price negotiations for the first ten drugs taking effect on January 1, 2026, alleviating financial burdens and improving overall financial health for retirees.
- Rising Medicare Costs: The standard Medicare Part B premium will increase from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, while the annual deductible will rise by $26 to $283, negatively impacting retirees' disposable income, especially as Social Security cost-of-living adjustments may not keep pace with these increases.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, meaning more retirees will encounter higher healthcare costs, further straining their financial resources.
- Medicare Advantage Market Turmoil: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, leading to reduced services and limited networks, with CEOs warning that future payment increases may have a “profoundly negative impact” on seniors' benefits and access to care.
- Lower Drug Costs: Starting in 2026, the CMS can negotiate prices for the first time under the Inflation Reduction Act, potentially lowering costs for retirees on 10 key prescription drugs, particularly those for diabetes and heart conditions, thereby alleviating some financial burdens on retirees.
- Rising Premiums and Deductibles: The standard Medicare Part B premium has increased from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, with the annual deductible rising by $26 to $283, leading 54% of Social Security recipients to feel that the 2.8% COLA is insufficient to offset these increases, which may heighten financial stress for retirees.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, further straining their healthcare budgets and reducing disposable income.
- Medicare Advantage Chaos: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, reducing benefits for additional services; CEOs warn that the proposed 0.9% payment increase for 2027 could have a profoundly negative impact on seniors' benefits and access to care.
- Earnings Release Date: CVS Health is set to report its latest earnings pre-market on February 10, and while market focus on its 2026 guidance may impact stock price, the company has consistently exceeded earnings expectations over the past four quarters, indicating resilience in profitability.
- Medicare Payment Impact: Following the latest Medicare Advantage payment news, CVS shares have fallen over 14%, which could negatively affect investor sentiment post-earnings, particularly regarding updates to the 2026 guidance.
- Earnings Expectation Shift: Analysts forecast CVS's non-GAAP earnings for Q4 2025 at $0.99 per share, a decline from $1.19 in Q4 2024; however, expectations for a potential earnings beat remain, which could lead to a stock rebound.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite pressures from Medicare payment rates, CVS's retail pharmacy and pharmacy benefits management units generate a larger share of revenue, maintaining a positive long-term growth outlook, especially when compared to UnitedHealth's valuation, which presents a more attractive investment opportunity.
- Earnings Preview: CVS Health is set to release its quarterly results on February 10, with consensus expecting non-GAAP earnings of $0.99 per share, reflecting a decline from $1.19 in Q4 2024; however, optimism remains regarding potential earnings beats.
- Medicare Policy Impact: Investors will closely monitor updates to CVS's 2026 guidance, particularly the implications of the recently proposed Medicare Advantage payment rates, especially after CVS shares fell over 14% due to this news.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Despite significant volatility following the Medicare news, analysts suggest that if CVS delivers











