Macau Casinos Experience Continued Double-Digit Growth in August
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 01 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MLCO?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Macau Gaming Revenue Surge
August Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose by 12.2% year-over-year in August, reaching 22.2 billion patacas (approximately $2.8 billion), surpassing analysts' expectations of 12% growth and marking the highest revenue since the pandemic began.
Factors Driving Growth: The increase in revenue was significantly influenced by a major music awards ceremony hosted by Tencent Music Entertainment, which attracted a large audience. Additionally, there is a noted improvement in demand for high-end hotels, benefiting casino operators.
Year-to-Date Revenue Trends
- First Eight Months of 2025: For the first eight months of 2025, Macau's GGR has increased by 7.2%, totaling 160.1 billion patacas.
Future Projections
September Forecast: Bank of America anticipates a GGR increase of 6% to 9% year-over-year for September, although a decline of 15% to 18% from August is expected due to seasonal trends.
Q4 Outlook: The outlook for Q4 is challenging, with tough comparisons anticipated for Macau casinos. Conversely, J.P. Morgan predicts sustained double-digit GGR growth in the upcoming months, extending at least until the first quarter of 2026.
National Day Holiday Impact: The upcoming week-long National Day holiday in China, starting in early October, is seen as a critical test for the gaming sector.
Casino Stocks Overview
- Key Players: Notable Macau-related casino stocks include Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, Sands China, Las Vegas Sands, MGM China, MGM Resorts, Galaxy Entertainment, SJM Holdings, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, and Studio City International.
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Analyst Views on MLCO
Wall Street analysts forecast MLCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MLCO is 11.21 USD with a low forecast of 9.50 USD and a high forecast of 12.55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 6.070
Low
9.50
Averages
11.21
High
12.55
Current: 6.070
Low
9.50
Averages
11.21
High
12.55
About MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd is a Company engaged in the development and operation of resort facilities. The Company is engaged in the operation of casinos in Macau and Philippines. The Company operates three casinos based in Macau, namely, City of Dreams, Altira Macau and Studio City. In addition, the Company is engaged in the operation of hotels in Macau and Manila.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Melco Resorts to Release Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Melco Resorts will announce its unaudited financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025, on February 12, 2026, which is expected to significantly impact investors and the market.
- Conference Call Details: Following the earnings release, management will hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (9:30 p.m. Singapore Time), requiring advance registration for participants, demonstrating the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Online Registration Link: The company has provided an online registration link to ensure participants can join the call smoothly, reflecting Melco's modernization and convenience in information dissemination.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The press release includes forward-looking statements, emphasizing the company's risk management in light of market changes and economic conditions, showcasing its cautious approach to future developments.
See More
Macau Gaming Revenue Surges 24% Year-Over-Year
- Significant Revenue Growth: According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) soared 24% year-over-year in January to 22.6 billion patacas ($2.8 billion), exceeding the market expectation of an 18% increase and 8.2% higher than December's total.
- Premium Gambler Boost: The Macau casino sector benefited from a surge in premium gambler activity, improved VIP wins, and increased non-gaming entertainment options during January, indicating a strong recovery momentum in the market.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Looking ahead, the Chinese New Year from February 17-23, 2026, is seen as a key catalyst for the Macau casino sector, with operators heavily exposed to premium mass and non-gaming attractions likely to benefit the most from a potential spike in visitation during the holiday week.
- Recovery Challenges: Despite the significant revenue growth, the overall Macau casino sector has not yet returned to the gross gaming revenue levels seen in 2019 before the pandemic, indicating that the industry still faces challenges in its recovery and requires ongoing market monitoring.
See More
Melco Resorts (MLCO) Initiated with Buy Rating and $11.50 Price Target
- Clear Market Opportunities: Texas Capital Securities has initiated a Buy rating on Melco Resorts (MLCO), with analysts noting that its unique non-gaming offerings and premium mass market focus align well with record Macau visitation, indicating clearer market opportunities in the new Macau setup.
- Risk Mitigation: Analysts highlighted that the near elimination of junkets in Macau reduces market volatility and related risks, while also providing uncaptured GGR margin opportunities, which are expected to enhance the company's profitability.
- Increased Operating Expenses: With rising operating expenses related to non-gaming activities and events, visitation growth and diversification of gaming revenue are anticipated, leading to absolute EBITDA gains and strengthening the company's competitive position.
- Favorable Investment Timing: Texas Capital views the recent sell-off in MLCO shares as overdone, presenting a strong entry point for investors, with a price target of $11.50 indicating an upside potential of over 80%.
See More
S&P Global Ratings Projects Macau Casino Sector Growth to Slow to 3%-7% by 2026
- Maturity Phase: S&P Global anticipates that the Macau casino sector will transition to a maturity phase by 2026, with overall revenue growth slowing to 3%-7%, yet steady operations and selective market share gains will still support modest upside potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: The total Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for Macau is projected to increase by 3%-7% year-on-year in 2026, down from 9.1% in 2025, primarily due to near-full hotel occupancy and limited new capacity.
- Market Share Dynamics: Las Vegas Sands and MGM are expected to gain market share in the mass market segment, benefiting from the opening of new hotels and a recovery in market demand, driving accelerated EBITDA growth.
- Investor Sentiment Analysis: Jefferies analysts believe that current valuations of Macau casino stocks, ranging from 8-10X EBITDA, are undemanding, particularly highlighting WYNN and LVS as favorites in the U.S. market, indicating potential for future upside.
See More
Melco Resorts (MLCO) Hits Oversold Territory with RSI at 29.2
- Oversold Signal: Melco Resorts (MLCO) shares have fallen to $7.60, with an RSI of 29.2, indicating that the recent heavy selling may be nearing exhaustion, prompting investors to consider potential buying opportunities.
- Historical Performance Comparison: MLCO's 52-week low is $4.55 and high is $10.15, suggesting a significant gap between the current price and the high, reflecting market caution regarding its future performance.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with an RSI of 55.2, MLCO's oversold condition may attract investors looking for rebound opportunities, potentially driving future buying activity.
- Investor Focus: In the current market environment, MLCO's oversold status may lead investors to reassess its value, especially considering its historical volatility and potential for rebound.
See More
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- Stock Price Analysis: MLCO's 52-week low is $4.55 per share, with a high of $10.15, and the last trade at $7.60 indicates significant price fluctuation, reflecting cautious market sentiment towards the stock.
- Market Trend Observation: The current price of $7.60 is close to the 52-week low, suggesting investor concerns about MLCO's future performance, particularly in an uncertain overall market environment.
- Technical Indicator Focus: MLCO's stock price has fallen below its 200-day moving average, potentially triggering technical sell-offs that could further impact investor confidence and market sentiment.
- Investor Sentiment Assessment: Although the current stock price is low, the market's view on MLCO remains complex, necessitating close attention to upcoming financial reports and market dynamics to evaluate its potential rebound capacity.
See More
Melco Resorts to Release Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Melco Resorts will announce its unaudited financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025, on February 12, 2026, which is expected to significantly impact investors and the market.
- Conference Call Details: Following the earnings release, management will hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (9:30 p.m. Singapore Time), requiring advance registration for participants, demonstrating the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Online Registration Link: The company has provided an online registration link to ensure participants can join the call smoothly, reflecting Melco's modernization and convenience in information dissemination.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The press release includes forward-looking statements, emphasizing the company's risk management in light of market changes and economic conditions, showcasing its cautious approach to future developments.
See More
Macau Gaming Revenue Surges 24% Year-Over-Year
- Significant Revenue Growth: According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) soared 24% year-over-year in January to 22.6 billion patacas ($2.8 billion), exceeding the market expectation of an 18% increase and 8.2% higher than December's total.
- Premium Gambler Boost: The Macau casino sector benefited from a surge in premium gambler activity, improved VIP wins, and increased non-gaming entertainment options during January, indicating a strong recovery momentum in the market.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Looking ahead, the Chinese New Year from February 17-23, 2026, is seen as a key catalyst for the Macau casino sector, with operators heavily exposed to premium mass and non-gaming attractions likely to benefit the most from a potential spike in visitation during the holiday week.
- Recovery Challenges: Despite the significant revenue growth, the overall Macau casino sector has not yet returned to the gross gaming revenue levels seen in 2019 before the pandemic, indicating that the industry still faces challenges in its recovery and requires ongoing market monitoring.
See More
Melco Resorts (MLCO) Initiated with Buy Rating and $11.50 Price Target
- Clear Market Opportunities: Texas Capital Securities has initiated a Buy rating on Melco Resorts (MLCO), with analysts noting that its unique non-gaming offerings and premium mass market focus align well with record Macau visitation, indicating clearer market opportunities in the new Macau setup.
- Risk Mitigation: Analysts highlighted that the near elimination of junkets in Macau reduces market volatility and related risks, while also providing uncaptured GGR margin opportunities, which are expected to enhance the company's profitability.
- Increased Operating Expenses: With rising operating expenses related to non-gaming activities and events, visitation growth and diversification of gaming revenue are anticipated, leading to absolute EBITDA gains and strengthening the company's competitive position.
- Favorable Investment Timing: Texas Capital views the recent sell-off in MLCO shares as overdone, presenting a strong entry point for investors, with a price target of $11.50 indicating an upside potential of over 80%.
See More
S&P Global Ratings Projects Macau Casino Sector Growth to Slow to 3%-7% by 2026
- Maturity Phase: S&P Global anticipates that the Macau casino sector will transition to a maturity phase by 2026, with overall revenue growth slowing to 3%-7%, yet steady operations and selective market share gains will still support modest upside potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: The total Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for Macau is projected to increase by 3%-7% year-on-year in 2026, down from 9.1% in 2025, primarily due to near-full hotel occupancy and limited new capacity.
- Market Share Dynamics: Las Vegas Sands and MGM are expected to gain market share in the mass market segment, benefiting from the opening of new hotels and a recovery in market demand, driving accelerated EBITDA growth.
- Investor Sentiment Analysis: Jefferies analysts believe that current valuations of Macau casino stocks, ranging from 8-10X EBITDA, are undemanding, particularly highlighting WYNN and LVS as favorites in the U.S. market, indicating potential for future upside.
See More
Melco Resorts (MLCO) Hits Oversold Territory with RSI at 29.2
- Oversold Signal: Melco Resorts (MLCO) shares have fallen to $7.60, with an RSI of 29.2, indicating that the recent heavy selling may be nearing exhaustion, prompting investors to consider potential buying opportunities.
- Historical Performance Comparison: MLCO's 52-week low is $4.55 and high is $10.15, suggesting a significant gap between the current price and the high, reflecting market caution regarding its future performance.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with an RSI of 55.2, MLCO's oversold condition may attract investors looking for rebound opportunities, potentially driving future buying activity.
- Investor Focus: In the current market environment, MLCO's oversold status may lead investors to reassess its value, especially considering its historical volatility and potential for rebound.
See More
MLCO Stock Fluctuates: 52-Week Low at $4.55
- Stock Price Analysis: MLCO's 52-week low is $4.55 per share, with a high of $10.15, and the last trade at $7.60 indicates significant price fluctuation, reflecting cautious market sentiment towards the stock.
- Market Trend Observation: The current price of $7.60 is close to the 52-week low, suggesting investor concerns about MLCO's future performance, particularly in an uncertain overall market environment.
- Technical Indicator Focus: MLCO's stock price has fallen below its 200-day moving average, potentially triggering technical sell-offs that could further impact investor confidence and market sentiment.
- Investor Sentiment Assessment: Although the current stock price is low, the market's view on MLCO remains complex, necessitating close attention to upcoming financial reports and market dynamics to evaluate its potential rebound capacity.
See More
