Lilly's Stock Has Tripled Due to Weight-Loss Medications: Here's Why It Appears Undervalued.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Source: Barron's
Growth Potential of Obesity Meds: The potential for growth in the obesity medication market is recognized, but there may be more to it than currently understood.
Future Developments: Two significant developments anticipated in 2026 could accelerate market growth beyond investor expectations.
Investor Predictions: Current investor predictions may not fully account for the rapid advancements and changes in the obesity medication landscape.
Market Dynamics: The evolving dynamics in the obesity treatment sector suggest a promising outlook for the industry in the coming years.
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Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVO is 54.67 USD with a low forecast of 42.00 USD and a high forecast of 70.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.340
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 43.340
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Novo Nordisk Expects Earnings Decline in 2026
- Earnings Guidance Decline: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report revealed a grim outlook for 2026, with sales and earnings expected to decline between 5% and 13%, primarily due to lower GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S., indicating significant market pressures and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Surge in GLP-1 Demand: Despite these challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, far exceeding management's expectations, highlighting the potential growth opportunities in the weight-loss drug market.
- Increased Market Acceptance: The preference for oral medications over injections among consumers suggests that Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill could tap into a larger market, and the pricing agreement with the U.S. government further boosts demand, creating a favorable environment for sales growth.
- Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the early success of the pill indicates that future volume could offset the pricing pressures expected in 2026, with the CEO's comments reflecting a positive internal outlook for the company's future.
See More
Hims Halts Sales of Wegovy Copycat Following FDA Scrutiny
- Regulatory Pressure Halts Sales: Hims announced the cessation of its $49 compounded semaglutide pill following FDA scrutiny, demonstrating the company's swift response to legal threats, even as retail sentiment remains optimistic.
- FDA Action Raises Legal Risks: The FDA plans to restrict access to GLP-1 ingredients in compounded drugs and refer Hims to the Department of Justice, indicating significant compliance challenges that could impact the company's future market performance.
- Competitors Push Back: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly strongly criticized Hims' compounded drug as illegal, threatening legal action to protect their intellectual property, which may intensify market competition and affect Hims' brand image.
- Market Sentiment Remains Bullish: Despite Hims' stock price dropping about 30% year-to-date, retail investor sentiment on Stocktwits is still 'extremely bullish', reflecting confidence in the company's future potential and possibly attracting more investor attention in the short term.
See More
Novo Nordisk's 2025 Earnings Analysis
- 2026 Earnings Guidance: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report indicates a projected decline in sales and earnings between 5% and 13% for 2026, primarily due to lower pricing on GLP-1 drugs resulting from an agreement with the U.S. government, reflecting market pressures and uncertainty in future profitability.
- Market Response to GLP-1 Drugs: Despite challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill has attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, demonstrating a rapid adoption rate that suggests strong future growth potential and market demand.
- Consumer Preference Shift: Consumers prefer oral medications over injections, which enhances the appeal of Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill in the market; combined with the lower pricing from the U.S. government deal, this is expected to further drive demand growth.
- Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the company remains a key player in the GLP-1 space, and early market success indicates that future sales volume could offset the pricing declines anticipated in 2026.
See More
Worst Performing Large-Cap Stocks Last Week
- Stellantis Loss Warning: Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) plummeted 26.24% this week after the company warned of a full-year net loss, significantly eroding investor confidence and potentially impacting future financing capabilities.
- Gartner Earnings Miss: Gartner (NYSE:IT) fell 25.41% this week following the release of its fourth-quarter financial results and a downward revision of its FY26 guidance, with analysts' pessimistic outlook likely to exert further pressure on the stock.
- Reddit Stock Decline: Reddit (NYSE:RDDT) dropped 23.10% this week as multiple analysts lowered their price forecasts, reflecting market concerns over its profitability and potentially hindering its financing and expansion plans.
- Analyst Downgrades: Several analysts adjusted their price targets downward for these companies, indicating a widespread bearish sentiment regarding their future performance, which may lead investors to reassess their portfolios.
See More
Hims & Hers Halts Compounded Semaglutide Pill Offering
- Decision to Halt Sales: Hims & Hers has decided to cease offering its compounded semaglutide pill priced at $49 per month just days after its launch, reflecting the company's responsiveness to stakeholder feedback, although this may negatively impact its market share and stock price.
- FDA Warning Impact: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has warned it will restrict GLP-1 active pharmaceutical ingredients for non-FDA-approved compounded drugs, prompting Hims & Hers to respond to regulatory pressures that could lead to stricter compliance requirements for the company.
- Escalating Legal Threats: Novo Nordisk has issued legal threats against Hims & Hers, accusing the company of deceptive marketing practices in the sale of compounded drugs, which could result in significant financial liabilities for Hims & Hers amid ongoing litigation.
- Stock Price Volatility Risk: Following the launch of the compounded drug, Hims & Hers' stock experienced a surge; however, due to legal disputes and regulatory pressures, the stock now faces downward risks, necessitating investor vigilance regarding the company's future compliance and market strategies.
See More
Overview of Medicare Changes for Retirees in 2026
- Drug Cost Reduction: Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, retirees will see significant reductions in prescription drug costs starting in 2026, with price negotiations for the first ten drugs taking effect on January 1, 2026, alleviating financial burdens and improving overall financial health for retirees.
- Rising Medicare Costs: The standard Medicare Part B premium will increase from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, while the annual deductible will rise by $26 to $283, negatively impacting retirees' disposable income, especially as Social Security cost-of-living adjustments may not keep pace with these increases.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, meaning more retirees will encounter higher healthcare costs, further straining their financial resources.
- Medicare Advantage Market Turmoil: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, leading to reduced services and limited networks, with CEOs warning that future payment increases may have a “profoundly negative impact” on seniors' benefits and access to care.
See More
Novo Nordisk Expects Earnings Decline in 2026
- Earnings Guidance Decline: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report revealed a grim outlook for 2026, with sales and earnings expected to decline between 5% and 13%, primarily due to lower GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S., indicating significant market pressures and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Surge in GLP-1 Demand: Despite these challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, far exceeding management's expectations, highlighting the potential growth opportunities in the weight-loss drug market.
- Increased Market Acceptance: The preference for oral medications over injections among consumers suggests that Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill could tap into a larger market, and the pricing agreement with the U.S. government further boosts demand, creating a favorable environment for sales growth.
- Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the early success of the pill indicates that future volume could offset the pricing pressures expected in 2026, with the CEO's comments reflecting a positive internal outlook for the company's future.
See More
Hims Halts Sales of Wegovy Copycat Following FDA Scrutiny
- Regulatory Pressure Halts Sales: Hims announced the cessation of its $49 compounded semaglutide pill following FDA scrutiny, demonstrating the company's swift response to legal threats, even as retail sentiment remains optimistic.
- FDA Action Raises Legal Risks: The FDA plans to restrict access to GLP-1 ingredients in compounded drugs and refer Hims to the Department of Justice, indicating significant compliance challenges that could impact the company's future market performance.
- Competitors Push Back: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly strongly criticized Hims' compounded drug as illegal, threatening legal action to protect their intellectual property, which may intensify market competition and affect Hims' brand image.
- Market Sentiment Remains Bullish: Despite Hims' stock price dropping about 30% year-to-date, retail investor sentiment on Stocktwits is still 'extremely bullish', reflecting confidence in the company's future potential and possibly attracting more investor attention in the short term.
See More
Novo Nordisk's 2025 Earnings Analysis
- 2026 Earnings Guidance: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report indicates a projected decline in sales and earnings between 5% and 13% for 2026, primarily due to lower pricing on GLP-1 drugs resulting from an agreement with the U.S. government, reflecting market pressures and uncertainty in future profitability.
- Market Response to GLP-1 Drugs: Despite challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill has attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, demonstrating a rapid adoption rate that suggests strong future growth potential and market demand.
- Consumer Preference Shift: Consumers prefer oral medications over injections, which enhances the appeal of Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill in the market; combined with the lower pricing from the U.S. government deal, this is expected to further drive demand growth.
- Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the company remains a key player in the GLP-1 space, and early market success indicates that future sales volume could offset the pricing declines anticipated in 2026.
See More
Worst Performing Large-Cap Stocks Last Week
- Stellantis Loss Warning: Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) plummeted 26.24% this week after the company warned of a full-year net loss, significantly eroding investor confidence and potentially impacting future financing capabilities.
- Gartner Earnings Miss: Gartner (NYSE:IT) fell 25.41% this week following the release of its fourth-quarter financial results and a downward revision of its FY26 guidance, with analysts' pessimistic outlook likely to exert further pressure on the stock.
- Reddit Stock Decline: Reddit (NYSE:RDDT) dropped 23.10% this week as multiple analysts lowered their price forecasts, reflecting market concerns over its profitability and potentially hindering its financing and expansion plans.
- Analyst Downgrades: Several analysts adjusted their price targets downward for these companies, indicating a widespread bearish sentiment regarding their future performance, which may lead investors to reassess their portfolios.
See More
Hims & Hers Halts Compounded Semaglutide Pill Offering
- Decision to Halt Sales: Hims & Hers has decided to cease offering its compounded semaglutide pill priced at $49 per month just days after its launch, reflecting the company's responsiveness to stakeholder feedback, although this may negatively impact its market share and stock price.
- FDA Warning Impact: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has warned it will restrict GLP-1 active pharmaceutical ingredients for non-FDA-approved compounded drugs, prompting Hims & Hers to respond to regulatory pressures that could lead to stricter compliance requirements for the company.
- Escalating Legal Threats: Novo Nordisk has issued legal threats against Hims & Hers, accusing the company of deceptive marketing practices in the sale of compounded drugs, which could result in significant financial liabilities for Hims & Hers amid ongoing litigation.
- Stock Price Volatility Risk: Following the launch of the compounded drug, Hims & Hers' stock experienced a surge; however, due to legal disputes and regulatory pressures, the stock now faces downward risks, necessitating investor vigilance regarding the company's future compliance and market strategies.
See More
Overview of Medicare Changes for Retirees in 2026
- Drug Cost Reduction: Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, retirees will see significant reductions in prescription drug costs starting in 2026, with price negotiations for the first ten drugs taking effect on January 1, 2026, alleviating financial burdens and improving overall financial health for retirees.
- Rising Medicare Costs: The standard Medicare Part B premium will increase from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, while the annual deductible will rise by $26 to $283, negatively impacting retirees' disposable income, especially as Social Security cost-of-living adjustments may not keep pace with these increases.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, meaning more retirees will encounter higher healthcare costs, further straining their financial resources.
- Medicare Advantage Market Turmoil: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, leading to reduced services and limited networks, with CEOs warning that future payment increases may have a “profoundly negative impact” on seniors' benefits and access to care.
See More
