Keybanc Upholds Overweight Rating for OneWater Marine (ONEW)
Analyst Recommendation: Keybanc has maintained an Overweight recommendation for OneWater Marine (NasdaqGM:ONEW) as of November 14, 2025, with a projected one-year price target of $17.85/share, indicating a potential upside of 34.77% from its current price of $13.24/share.
Revenue and Earnings Projections: OneWater Marine is projected to achieve annual revenue of $2,024 million, reflecting an 8.10% increase, with a non-GAAP EPS forecast of 6.92.
Fund Sentiment: There are currently 235 funds reporting positions in OneWater Marine, showing a slight decrease in ownership by 0.42% over the last quarter, while the average portfolio weight dedicated to ONEW has increased by 12.77%.
Shareholder Activity: Notable changes in shareholder positions include American Century Companies increasing its stake by 3.48%, while Royce & Associates reduced its holdings by 7.00%. Other firms like Philadelphia Financial Management and Gilder Gagnon Howe & Co also adjusted their allocations in the last quarter.
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- Strategic Optimization: OneWater Marine has completed the sale of Ocean Bio-Chem Holdings as part of its strategy to optimize its portfolio and focus on core businesses, generating $50 million in proceeds intended for debt repayment, which is expected to save approximately $3.5 million in annual interest expenses.
- Adjusted Financial Outlook: The company has lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to between $1.78 billion and $1.88 billion, down from the previous range of $1.83 billion to $1.93 billion, reflecting the revenue loss from exited brands.
- Earnings Per Share Revision: Adjusted earnings per share are now expected to be between $0.20 and $0.70, a decrease from the prior forecast of $0.25 to $0.75, indicating pressure on profitability following the divestiture.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite the downward revision in financial outlook, OneWater Marine's shares rose over 1% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strategic adjustments, closing at $13.51 on Monday with a gain of 1.73%.
- Transaction Completion: OneWater Marine Inc. has completed the sale of Ocean Bio-Chem Holdings, Inc. as part of its portfolio optimization strategy, expecting to generate $50 million in proceeds to reduce debt and enhance financial flexibility.
- Financial Impact: This transaction is projected to lower OneWater's net leverage ratio below 4.0x by fiscal year-end, with anticipated annual interest expense savings of approximately $3.5 million, thereby strengthening cash flow.
- Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: OneWater has updated its fiscal year 2026 guidance, forecasting total revenue between $1.78 billion and $1.88 billion, while same-store sales are expected to remain flat due to the impact of exited brands, reflecting a challenging industry environment.
- Focus on Core Assets: The company will continue to concentrate on core assets, with adjusted EBITDA expected to range from $60 million to $80 million, demonstrating its strategic adaptability amid market uncertainties.
- Revenue Growth: OneWater Marine reported Q1 revenue of $381 million, a 1% increase year-over-year, despite a 6% decline in new boat sales, while pre-owned boat sales surged by 24%, indicating resilient market demand.
- Margin Improvement: The first quarter gross profit reached $89 million, with a gross margin of 23.5%, up 110 basis points from the prior year, reflecting the company's success in brand rationalization and product mix optimization.
- Strategic Asset Divestiture: The company announced plans to sell certain non-core distribution assets to strengthen its balance sheet and sharpen its long-term focus, with expectations to reduce leverage to below 4x by year-end.
- Outlook: Management maintains its fiscal 2026 sales guidance in the range of $1.83 billion to $1.93 billion, acknowledging pressures on same-store sales from brand rationalization while viewing the overall market environment as flat to slightly down.
- Earnings Performance: OneWater Marine reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.04, beating expectations by $0.53, indicating an improvement in profitability despite ongoing challenges.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q1 revenue of $380.6 million, reflecting a 1.2% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by $570,000, demonstrating stability in sales performance.
- Gross Margin Improvement: With a gross profit margin of 23.5%, the company showcases the positive impact of its portfolio optimization efforts, enhancing overall profitability.
- 2026 Outlook: OneWater Marine anticipates total revenue between $1.83 billion and $1.93 billion for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA expected to range from $65 million to $85 million, reflecting cautious optimism for future growth.
- Earnings Announcement: OneWater Marine is set to release its Q1 earnings on January 29 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.57, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year decline, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate stands at $380.03 million, representing a modest 1.1% year-over-year increase, suggesting some market resilience that could lay the groundwork for future recovery despite the sluggish growth.
- Performance History: Over the past two years, OneWater Marine has only beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time and revenue estimates 38% of the time, highlighting persistent challenges in achieving profitability.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with five downward adjustments, while revenue estimates saw one upward revision and four downward, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
OneWater Marine Insider Purchase: Executive Chairman Philip Austin Singleton Jr. bought 43,179 shares of ONEW for $495,263, with a current gain of about 10.8% based on recent trading highs.
Hershey Insider Purchase: CEO Kirk Tanner purchased 2,000 shares of Hershey at $185.46 each, totaling $370,915, and is currently up about 1.9% based on today's trading high.








