JPM Projects Developers' Earnings to Potentially Recover Next Fiscal Year, Upgrades NEW WORLD DEV to Neutral
Earnings Outlook for Hong Kong Homebuilders: JPMorgan anticipates that the earnings of most Hong Kong homebuilders will continue to decline, but the upcoming results season may mark the lowest point, with potential for a rebound in FY2026.
Top Picks and Upgrades: JPMorgan upgraded New World Development to Neutral, citing that major market concerns are reflected in current prices, and highlighted Hang Lung Properties, Swire Properties, and Sino Land as top picks among developers and landlords.
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Financial Results Announcement: NEW WORLD DEV is expected to announce its 1HFY26 results by the end of February, with a projected net loss despite improved residential sales and reduced expenses.
Market Ratings and Target Price: Morgan Stanley has assigned an Underweight rating to NEW WORLD DEV with a target price of HKD6.5, while Citi has raised its target price to HKD9.6 but maintains a Sell recommendation.
Market Performance: The HSI fell 304 points (1.1%) to 26,580, with the HSCEI and HSTECH also experiencing declines, while total market turnover reached HKD139.462 billion.
Financial Stocks Decline: Major financial stocks like HSBC, AIA, and Standard Chartered saw significant drops, with short selling ratios indicating increased market pressure.
Tech Stocks Movement: Tech stocks such as Meituan, Tencent, and Alibaba faced losses, while some companies like Bilibili and Kuaishou also reported declines in their stock prices.
Carmakers Rally: In contrast to the overall market, car manufacturers like Geely, BYD, and NIO experienced gains, with notable increases in their stock prices amidst the downturn.

Stock Performance: NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) saw a stock increase of 1.297%, with short selling amounting to $35.87M and a ratio of 10.425%.
K11 ELYSEA Project: The K11 ELYSEA mixed-use project in Shanghai is set to begin intake in the second half of 2026, with a pre-leasing rate exceeding 50% as of January 2026.
Sales Growth: The K11 locations in mainland China experienced significant growth in footfall and sales since late December 2025, with average daily footfall up over 10% YoY and overall sales increasing nearly 20% YoY.
Category Performance: Notable sales growth was observed in specific categories, with art toy IP sales soaring nearly 44% YoY and electronics sales more than doubling.

Stock Performance: NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) opened 2.6% lower and is currently trading at HK$9.99, down 12.21%, with significant short selling activity amounting to $65.12M.
Investment Proposals: The company has received proposals from potential investors for possible investment, but none are aimed at a general offer for shares, and discussions are ongoing with no agreements reached yet.
Market Rumors: There are rumors that NWD may experience a change in control, with Blackstone potentially becoming the largest single shareholder, replacing Chow Tai Fook Enterprises (CTFE).
Analyst Outlook: Citi has indicated a positive outlook for HK developers' earnings per share (EPS) in 2026-2027, recommending several companies including SHK PPT and SINO LAND.

Hong Kong Stock Market Decline: Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant decline, with the HSI dropping 580 points (2.08%) to close at 27,387, while the HSCEI and HSTECH also fell by 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, amid a total market turnover of $301.612 billion.
Gold and Resource Stocks Performance: Spot gold prices fell over 5%, impacting several gold mining stocks, which tumbled between 10-14%. Resource stocks like Jiangxi Copper and MMG also saw declines of 9-10%, with Jiangxi Copper's short selling ratio reaching 28.3%.
Pharmaceutical Sector Developments: CSPC Pharma's stock dropped 10.2% despite a partnership with AstraZeneca for innovative medicines, involving an upfront payment exceeding $9.3 billion. Other pharma stocks also faced declines ranging from 3.3% to 4.9%.
Corporate News and Market Rumors: CKH Holdings fell 4.6% following a court ruling on port contracts, while New World Development's share price rose 2.2% amid rumors of a potential change in ownership involving Blackstone.

Market Reaction to Fed Chair Nominee: The DXY rose following President Trump's announcement of the Fed Chair nominee, while the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines, with the HSI dropping 498 points or 1.8% by the morning session's close.
Gold and Mining Stocks Performance: Gold prices fell over 3%, leading to substantial losses in mining stocks such as SD GOLD and ZIJIN GOLD, which plunged 12.9% and 10% respectively, alongside other mining companies experiencing similar declines.
Pharmaceutical Sector Developments: CSPC PHARMA's stock plummeted 12.5% despite a partnership with AstraZeneca for drug development, which included an upfront payment exceeding HKD9.3 billion.
Corporate News and Market Rumors: The Panama Supreme Court ruled contracts for two local ports unconstitutional, negatively impacting CKH HOLDINGS, while rumors of a potential ownership change at NEW WORLD DEV led to a 3.7% increase in its stock price.







