Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on Waste Management Stock?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 13 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Company Overview and Performance: Waste Management, Inc. has a market cap of $91 billion and specializes in waste management services, showing strong stock performance with a 20.8% return, slightly above the S&P 500's 20.5%. The company reported Q4 earnings with revenue of $5.89 billion, exceeding expectations, but adjusted EPS fell short.
Analyst Ratings and Future Projections: WM stock holds a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from analysts, with a price target raised to $255 by Scotiabank, indicating potential upside. Analysts expect a 6.5% growth in EPS for the current fiscal year, reflecting a mixed earnings surprise history.
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Analyst Views on WM
Wall Street analysts forecast WM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WM is 247.61 USD with a low forecast of 223.00 USD and a high forecast of 266.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 226.600
Low
223.00
Averages
247.61
High
266.00
Current: 226.600
Low
223.00
Averages
247.61
High
266.00
About WM
Waste Management, Inc. is a provider of environmental solutions. The Company provides collection, recycling, and disposal services to millions of residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers throughout the United States and Canada. Its segments include East Tier, West Tier, Recycling Processing and Sales, WM Renewable Energy, and WM Healthcare Solutions. East Tier primarily consists of geographic areas located in the Eastern U.S., the Great Lakes region and all of Canada. The West Tier primarily includes geographic areas located in the Western U.S., including the upper Midwest region and British Columbia, Canada. Recycling Processing and Sales includes the processing and sales of materials collected from residential, commercial, and industrial customers. WM Renewable Energy develops, operates, and promotes projects for the beneficial use of landfill gas. WM Healthcare Solutions includes Regulated Waste and Compliance Services and Secure Information Destruction services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Bill Gates' Philanthropic Investment Strategy
- Charitable Donation Scale: Bill Gates has donated the vast majority of his wealth to the Gates Foundation over the decades, planning to give away nearly all of his remaining wealth over the next 20 years, reflecting his strong commitment to philanthropy.
- Investment Concentration: Approximately 59% of the Gates Foundation's marketable equity portfolio is concentrated in three major stocks, with Berkshire Hathaway accounting for 28.5%, indicating a highly concentrated investment strategy favoring quality assets.
- Berkshire Hathaway Performance: As of the third quarter, the foundation holds 21.8 million shares of Berkshire Hathaway, valued at about $11 billion, and despite market fluctuations, the foundation plans to continue holding these quality assets.
- WM and Canadian National Railway: The Gates Foundation also holds stakes in WM and Canadian National Railway, representing 17% and 13.3% of its assets respectively, both companies possess strong market positions and stable profitability in their respective industries, showcasing Gates' focus on long-term investments.
See More
Analysis of Gates Foundation Investment Strategy
- Portfolio Concentration: The Gates Foundation's investment portfolio is heavily concentrated, with approximately 59% of marketable equities held in just three outstanding value stocks, reflecting Bill Gates' investment style influenced by Warren Buffett, which may yield stable returns in the future.
- Buffett's Annual Donations: Warren Buffett donates a significant number of shares to the Gates Foundation each year, with last year's contribution amounting to 9.4 million Class B shares, requiring the foundation to utilize the entire value of these donations plus 5% of its other assets annually, ensuring a continuous influx of funds for philanthropic efforts.
- WM's Market Advantage: The Gates Foundation holds 28.9 million shares of WM, valued at approximately $6.6 billion, benefiting from its dominant position with over 260 landfills, which provides a competitive edge in the slow-growing waste management industry, allowing for steady profit growth in the future.
- Growth Potential of Canadian National Railway: The foundation owns 51.8 million shares of Canadian National Railway, worth about $5.1 billion, and despite facing flat revenue challenges, the company is expected to enhance earnings per share through a share repurchase program and reduced capital expenditures, showcasing long-term investment potential.
See More
Waste Management's Unexciting Operations Fuel a Subtle Surge
Company Performance: Waste Management (NYSE: WM) is experiencing growth driven by high demand for its services, with solid economic activity and high consumption leading to increased garbage collection, which is profitable for the company.
Financial Outlook: The company is on track to meet its long-term financial goals, including a 25-year inclusion threshold by 2028, with a focus on improving margins, cash flow, and capital returns, despite missing some Q4 estimates.
Dividend and Share Buybacks: Waste Management has consistently increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years and plans to resume share buybacks, with guidance suggesting $2 billion in buybacks this year, which is expected to offset dilution from share-based compensation.
Market Sentiment: Analysts remain optimistic about Waste Management's stock, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and expectations for revenue growth, while the stock price has shown resilience despite recent pullbacks following Q4 results.
See More
WASTE MANAGEMENT INC: UBS Increases Target Price from $260 to $265
Price Increase Announcement: Waste Management Inc. has raised its target price to $265 from $260.
Market Impact: This adjustment reflects the company's ongoing strategies and market conditions affecting waste management services.
See More
Waste Management, Inc. Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Record Cash Flow Growth
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Waste Management reported over 12% growth in cash flow from operations to $6.04 billion and nearly 27% growth in free cash flow, reflecting robust core business performance and successful sustainability strategies.
- Renewable Energy Expansion: The company commissioned seven new renewable natural gas facilities, further solidifying its leadership in environmental sustainability, while projecting nearly 30% growth in free cash flow to $3.8 billion in 2026.
- Shareholder Return Plans: Management announced a 14.5% increase in the quarterly dividend for 2026 and authorized a $3 billion share repurchase program, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value with an expected $3.5 billion in total returns.
- Operational Efficiency Improvements: The operating EBITDA margin rose to 30.1% in 2025, with operating costs dropping below 60% for the first time at 59.5%, driven by a younger fleet and improved employee retention, showcasing ongoing advancements in cost management and technological efficiency.
See More
Waste Management Q4 Results Fall Short of Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Waste Management reported earnings of $1.93 per share, slightly below the market expectation of $1.94, yet reflecting a 13.5% year-over-year increase, indicating sustained profitability.
- Revenue Figures: The company’s fourth-quarter revenue was $6.31 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations of $6.39 billion, but still representing over a 7% increase from last year's $5.89 billion, showcasing robust market performance.
- Future Outlook: Waste Management projects full-year 2026 revenue between $26.43 billion and $26.63 billion, slightly below the Street's estimate of $26.66 billion, indicating a cautious approach towards future growth.
- Analyst Ratings: Despite mixed ratings, Wells Fargo raised its target price from $238 to $246, while Scotiabank downgraded it to $250, reflecting differing market perspectives on Waste Management's future performance.
See More
Bill Gates' Philanthropic Investment Strategy
- Charitable Donation Scale: Bill Gates has donated the vast majority of his wealth to the Gates Foundation over the decades, planning to give away nearly all of his remaining wealth over the next 20 years, reflecting his strong commitment to philanthropy.
- Investment Concentration: Approximately 59% of the Gates Foundation's marketable equity portfolio is concentrated in three major stocks, with Berkshire Hathaway accounting for 28.5%, indicating a highly concentrated investment strategy favoring quality assets.
- Berkshire Hathaway Performance: As of the third quarter, the foundation holds 21.8 million shares of Berkshire Hathaway, valued at about $11 billion, and despite market fluctuations, the foundation plans to continue holding these quality assets.
- WM and Canadian National Railway: The Gates Foundation also holds stakes in WM and Canadian National Railway, representing 17% and 13.3% of its assets respectively, both companies possess strong market positions and stable profitability in their respective industries, showcasing Gates' focus on long-term investments.
See More
Analysis of Gates Foundation Investment Strategy
- Portfolio Concentration: The Gates Foundation's investment portfolio is heavily concentrated, with approximately 59% of marketable equities held in just three outstanding value stocks, reflecting Bill Gates' investment style influenced by Warren Buffett, which may yield stable returns in the future.
- Buffett's Annual Donations: Warren Buffett donates a significant number of shares to the Gates Foundation each year, with last year's contribution amounting to 9.4 million Class B shares, requiring the foundation to utilize the entire value of these donations plus 5% of its other assets annually, ensuring a continuous influx of funds for philanthropic efforts.
- WM's Market Advantage: The Gates Foundation holds 28.9 million shares of WM, valued at approximately $6.6 billion, benefiting from its dominant position with over 260 landfills, which provides a competitive edge in the slow-growing waste management industry, allowing for steady profit growth in the future.
- Growth Potential of Canadian National Railway: The foundation owns 51.8 million shares of Canadian National Railway, worth about $5.1 billion, and despite facing flat revenue challenges, the company is expected to enhance earnings per share through a share repurchase program and reduced capital expenditures, showcasing long-term investment potential.
See More
Waste Management's Unexciting Operations Fuel a Subtle Surge
Company Performance: Waste Management (NYSE: WM) is experiencing growth driven by high demand for its services, with solid economic activity and high consumption leading to increased garbage collection, which is profitable for the company.
Financial Outlook: The company is on track to meet its long-term financial goals, including a 25-year inclusion threshold by 2028, with a focus on improving margins, cash flow, and capital returns, despite missing some Q4 estimates.
Dividend and Share Buybacks: Waste Management has consistently increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years and plans to resume share buybacks, with guidance suggesting $2 billion in buybacks this year, which is expected to offset dilution from share-based compensation.
Market Sentiment: Analysts remain optimistic about Waste Management's stock, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and expectations for revenue growth, while the stock price has shown resilience despite recent pullbacks following Q4 results.
See More
WASTE MANAGEMENT INC: UBS Increases Target Price from $260 to $265
Price Increase Announcement: Waste Management Inc. has raised its target price to $265 from $260.
Market Impact: This adjustment reflects the company's ongoing strategies and market conditions affecting waste management services.
See More
Waste Management, Inc. Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Record Cash Flow Growth
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Waste Management reported over 12% growth in cash flow from operations to $6.04 billion and nearly 27% growth in free cash flow, reflecting robust core business performance and successful sustainability strategies.
- Renewable Energy Expansion: The company commissioned seven new renewable natural gas facilities, further solidifying its leadership in environmental sustainability, while projecting nearly 30% growth in free cash flow to $3.8 billion in 2026.
- Shareholder Return Plans: Management announced a 14.5% increase in the quarterly dividend for 2026 and authorized a $3 billion share repurchase program, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value with an expected $3.5 billion in total returns.
- Operational Efficiency Improvements: The operating EBITDA margin rose to 30.1% in 2025, with operating costs dropping below 60% for the first time at 59.5%, driven by a younger fleet and improved employee retention, showcasing ongoing advancements in cost management and technological efficiency.
See More
Waste Management Q4 Results Fall Short of Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Waste Management reported earnings of $1.93 per share, slightly below the market expectation of $1.94, yet reflecting a 13.5% year-over-year increase, indicating sustained profitability.
- Revenue Figures: The company’s fourth-quarter revenue was $6.31 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations of $6.39 billion, but still representing over a 7% increase from last year's $5.89 billion, showcasing robust market performance.
- Future Outlook: Waste Management projects full-year 2026 revenue between $26.43 billion and $26.63 billion, slightly below the Street's estimate of $26.66 billion, indicating a cautious approach towards future growth.
- Analyst Ratings: Despite mixed ratings, Wells Fargo raised its target price from $238 to $246, while Scotiabank downgraded it to $250, reflecting differing market perspectives on Waste Management's future performance.
See More
