Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy AAPL?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Increased Market Volatility: Despite a 16% rise in the S&P 500 in 2025, Trump's tariff policy triggered a 10.5% drop in just two days following its announcement on April 2, marking the fifth-largest decline since 1950, indicating the policy's detrimental impact on investor confidence.
- Earnings Quality Concerns: The tariffs imposed by Trump in 2018-2019 had a lasting negative effect on U.S. companies, with affected firms experiencing declines in labor productivity, employment, sales, and profits from 2019 to 2021, suggesting that current tariffs could replicate these adverse outcomes.
- Rising Inflation Pressure: Since the implementation of tariffs, the U.S. inflation rate has increased, with import duties raising production costs for certain businesses, leading to higher consumer prices and diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, which could hinder economic growth.
- High Market Valuation: Entering 2026, the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio fluctuated between 39 and 41, significantly above the historical average of 17.34, highlighting the market's reliance on earnings quality; a decline in earnings quality could trigger a market correction.
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Analyst Views on AAPL
Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise
32 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
11 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 261.730
Low
230.00
Averages
299.69
High
350.00
Current: 261.730
Low
230.00
Averages
299.69
High
350.00
About AAPL
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV, Apple Vision Pro and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tech Giants Mask Underlying Market Risks
- Market Risk Concerns: While tech giants like Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia demonstrate some market resilience, the overall market remains highly dangerous, prompting investors to stay vigilant against potential volatility.
- Financial Performance Analysis: These companies report strong revenue growth in their financial statements; however, market uncertainties could impact future profitability, necessitating investor attention to shifts in macroeconomic indicators.
- Investor Strategy Adjustments: In light of market risks, investors may need to reassess their portfolios, considering a more balanced allocation between tech stocks and other sectors to mitigate potential losses.
- Industry Outlook: Although the performance of tech giants may mask underlying market issues, the long-term growth of the sector still relies on innovation and the stability of market demand.
See More
Wall Street's Bull Market Continues for Third Year
- Strong Market Performance: By the end of last year, the S&P 500 had risen 16%, achieving three consecutive years of at least 16% growth, indicating a robust market recovery and rising investor confidence.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump's tariff policy led to a 10.5% drop in the S&P 500 within two days of its announcement, marking the fifth-largest two-day decline since 1950, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to policy uncertainty.
- Earnings Quality Concerns: Despite the market's historically high valuation, the second-highest P/E ratio (39-41) raises concerns about earnings quality, as many companies rely on non-sustainable income sources to maintain profits, potentially undermining long-term investor confidence.
- Challenges for Apple and Tesla: Apple masks its lack of real earnings growth through stock buybacks, while Tesla relies on automotive regulatory credits and interest income, which account for 63% of its pre-tax income, highlighting the earnings quality crisis facing market leaders.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Market
- Increased Market Volatility: Despite a 16% rise in the S&P 500 in 2025, Trump's tariff policy triggered a 10.5% drop in just two days following its announcement on April 2, marking the fifth-largest decline since 1950, indicating the policy's detrimental impact on investor confidence.
- Earnings Quality Concerns: The tariffs imposed by Trump in 2018-2019 had a lasting negative effect on U.S. companies, with affected firms experiencing declines in labor productivity, employment, sales, and profits from 2019 to 2021, suggesting that current tariffs could replicate these adverse outcomes.
- Rising Inflation Pressure: Since the implementation of tariffs, the U.S. inflation rate has increased, with import duties raising production costs for certain businesses, leading to higher consumer prices and diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, which could hinder economic growth.
- High Market Valuation: Entering 2026, the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio fluctuated between 39 and 41, significantly above the historical average of 17.34, highlighting the market's reliance on earnings quality; a decline in earnings quality could trigger a market correction.
See More
French President Celebrates Successful Rocket Launch of 32 Amazon Leo Satellites
- Successful Rocket Launch: The French president celebrated the successful launch of Europe's most powerful rocket, which deployed 32 Amazon Leo satellites into orbit, marking a significant advancement in Europe's space capabilities and enhancing its competitiveness in the global space market.
- Pause on Tech Security Measures: Ahead of the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, the Trump administration reportedly paused several critical technology security measures targeting China, a decision that could influence the future trajectory of U.S.-China tech relations and reduce market uncertainties.
- Apple Court Victory: Apple secured a courtroom win as a jury rejected claims from Optis Wireless that it infringed on 4G wireless patents, a result that will help protect Apple's intellectual property and strengthen its market position.
- AI Industry Developments: Elon Musk criticized AI startup Anthropic for alleged bias while announcing a $30 billion funding round that pushed its valuation to $380 billion, highlighting the intense competition and rapid evolution within the AI sector.
See More
Apple Inc. Weekly Highlights: Challenges and Victories
- Chinese Market Performance: Despite a 23% year-over-year decline in smartphone sales in January 2026, Apple managed to maintain its market share, demonstrating resilience in a competitive environment, as noted by Counterpoint Research, which attributed the overall market drop to changes in promotional strategies.
- Political Bias Controversy: CEO Tim Cook received a letter from FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson expressing concerns over alleged political bias in Apple News, claiming systematic promotion of left-leaning content while suppressing conservative publications, which could impact the company's reputation.
- Legal Victory: Apple secured a significant legal win against Optis Wireless, with a jury dismissing claims that Apple infringed on its 4G wireless patents, a result that not only alleviates legal risks for Apple but also strengthens its position in the wireless technology market.
- Siri Feature Delay: Apple’s stock dipped 1.2% following reports of a potential three to four-month delay in new Siri features, with Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management noting that this news could affect investor confidence in Apple’s future innovation capabilities.
See More
Three Key Stocks in Buffett's Portfolio
- American Express Earnings Analysis: American Express reported Q4 earnings of $3.53 per share, falling short of expectations and causing a more than 10% drop from its early January peak; however, its total revenue still grew 9% year-over-year, indicating resilience in its affluent customer base, with projected earnings per share of $17.30 to $17.90 in 2026, reflecting the company's optimistic outlook.
- Apple Sales Growth: Apple's fiscal Q1 iPhone sales surged 23% year-over-year to $85.3 billion, despite a slight stock decline due to market focus on AI; consumer anticipation for future AI tools is driving sales, showcasing the company's strong performance in the tech sector.
- Constellation Brands Challenges: Constellation Brands, a smaller position in Buffett's portfolio, has grown to a $2 billion stake since its initial purchase in late 2024, facing declining beer sales over the past four quarters; however, a recovering economy is expected to drive growth, with a current dividend yield of 2.5%.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Despite the stock price declines of American Express and Apple due to market pessimism, their fundamentals remain strong, suggesting that investors should focus on long-term potential rather than short-term fluctuations.
See More
Tech Giants Mask Underlying Market Risks
- Market Risk Concerns: While tech giants like Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia demonstrate some market resilience, the overall market remains highly dangerous, prompting investors to stay vigilant against potential volatility.
- Financial Performance Analysis: These companies report strong revenue growth in their financial statements; however, market uncertainties could impact future profitability, necessitating investor attention to shifts in macroeconomic indicators.
- Investor Strategy Adjustments: In light of market risks, investors may need to reassess their portfolios, considering a more balanced allocation between tech stocks and other sectors to mitigate potential losses.
- Industry Outlook: Although the performance of tech giants may mask underlying market issues, the long-term growth of the sector still relies on innovation and the stability of market demand.
See More
Wall Street's Bull Market Continues for Third Year
- Strong Market Performance: By the end of last year, the S&P 500 had risen 16%, achieving three consecutive years of at least 16% growth, indicating a robust market recovery and rising investor confidence.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump's tariff policy led to a 10.5% drop in the S&P 500 within two days of its announcement, marking the fifth-largest two-day decline since 1950, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to policy uncertainty.
- Earnings Quality Concerns: Despite the market's historically high valuation, the second-highest P/E ratio (39-41) raises concerns about earnings quality, as many companies rely on non-sustainable income sources to maintain profits, potentially undermining long-term investor confidence.
- Challenges for Apple and Tesla: Apple masks its lack of real earnings growth through stock buybacks, while Tesla relies on automotive regulatory credits and interest income, which account for 63% of its pre-tax income, highlighting the earnings quality crisis facing market leaders.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Market
- Increased Market Volatility: Despite a 16% rise in the S&P 500 in 2025, Trump's tariff policy triggered a 10.5% drop in just two days following its announcement on April 2, marking the fifth-largest decline since 1950, indicating the policy's detrimental impact on investor confidence.
- Earnings Quality Concerns: The tariffs imposed by Trump in 2018-2019 had a lasting negative effect on U.S. companies, with affected firms experiencing declines in labor productivity, employment, sales, and profits from 2019 to 2021, suggesting that current tariffs could replicate these adverse outcomes.
- Rising Inflation Pressure: Since the implementation of tariffs, the U.S. inflation rate has increased, with import duties raising production costs for certain businesses, leading to higher consumer prices and diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, which could hinder economic growth.
- High Market Valuation: Entering 2026, the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio fluctuated between 39 and 41, significantly above the historical average of 17.34, highlighting the market's reliance on earnings quality; a decline in earnings quality could trigger a market correction.
See More
French President Celebrates Successful Rocket Launch of 32 Amazon Leo Satellites
- Successful Rocket Launch: The French president celebrated the successful launch of Europe's most powerful rocket, which deployed 32 Amazon Leo satellites into orbit, marking a significant advancement in Europe's space capabilities and enhancing its competitiveness in the global space market.
- Pause on Tech Security Measures: Ahead of the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, the Trump administration reportedly paused several critical technology security measures targeting China, a decision that could influence the future trajectory of U.S.-China tech relations and reduce market uncertainties.
- Apple Court Victory: Apple secured a courtroom win as a jury rejected claims from Optis Wireless that it infringed on 4G wireless patents, a result that will help protect Apple's intellectual property and strengthen its market position.
- AI Industry Developments: Elon Musk criticized AI startup Anthropic for alleged bias while announcing a $30 billion funding round that pushed its valuation to $380 billion, highlighting the intense competition and rapid evolution within the AI sector.
See More
Apple Inc. Weekly Highlights: Challenges and Victories
- Chinese Market Performance: Despite a 23% year-over-year decline in smartphone sales in January 2026, Apple managed to maintain its market share, demonstrating resilience in a competitive environment, as noted by Counterpoint Research, which attributed the overall market drop to changes in promotional strategies.
- Political Bias Controversy: CEO Tim Cook received a letter from FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson expressing concerns over alleged political bias in Apple News, claiming systematic promotion of left-leaning content while suppressing conservative publications, which could impact the company's reputation.
- Legal Victory: Apple secured a significant legal win against Optis Wireless, with a jury dismissing claims that Apple infringed on its 4G wireless patents, a result that not only alleviates legal risks for Apple but also strengthens its position in the wireless technology market.
- Siri Feature Delay: Apple’s stock dipped 1.2% following reports of a potential three to four-month delay in new Siri features, with Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management noting that this news could affect investor confidence in Apple’s future innovation capabilities.
See More
Three Key Stocks in Buffett's Portfolio
- American Express Earnings Analysis: American Express reported Q4 earnings of $3.53 per share, falling short of expectations and causing a more than 10% drop from its early January peak; however, its total revenue still grew 9% year-over-year, indicating resilience in its affluent customer base, with projected earnings per share of $17.30 to $17.90 in 2026, reflecting the company's optimistic outlook.
- Apple Sales Growth: Apple's fiscal Q1 iPhone sales surged 23% year-over-year to $85.3 billion, despite a slight stock decline due to market focus on AI; consumer anticipation for future AI tools is driving sales, showcasing the company's strong performance in the tech sector.
- Constellation Brands Challenges: Constellation Brands, a smaller position in Buffett's portfolio, has grown to a $2 billion stake since its initial purchase in late 2024, facing declining beer sales over the past four quarters; however, a recovering economy is expected to drive growth, with a current dividend yield of 2.5%.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Despite the stock price declines of American Express and Apple due to market pessimism, their fundamentals remain strong, suggesting that investors should focus on long-term potential rather than short-term fluctuations.
See More
