Hedge Funds Ramp Up Short Bets Against Software Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3d ago
0mins
Should l Buy INTU?
Source: CNBC
- Surge in Short Bets: Hedge funds have made a $24 billion profit from shorting software stocks this year, coinciding with a $1 trillion decline in the industry's overall market value, indicating a growing pessimism towards the software sector.
- Market Turmoil Intensifies: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has dropped 8% this week, bringing its year-to-date losses to over 21%, and a 30% decline from its all-time high last September, reflecting waning investor confidence in the software industry.
- Expectations of Structural Change: Investors increasingly believe that the software sector may be undergoing a
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Analyst Views on INTU
Wall Street analysts forecast INTU stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for INTU is 814.59 USD with a low forecast of 700.00 USD and a high forecast of 880.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 434.910
Low
700.00
Averages
814.59
High
880.00
Current: 434.910
Low
700.00
Averages
814.59
High
880.00
About INTU
Intuit Inc. offers a financial technology platform that helps consumers and small and mid-market businesses prosper by delivering financial management, compliance, and marketing products and services. It also provides specialized tax products to accounting professionals. Its offerings include TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, and Mailchimp. Lacerte, ProSeries, and ProConnect Tax Online. Its Global Business Solutions segment serves small and mid-market businesses around the world, and the accounting professionals who assist and advise them. Its Consumer segment serves consumers and includes do-it-yourself and assisted TurboTax income tax preparation products and services sold in the United States and Canada. Its Credit Karma segment serves consumers with a personal finance platform that provides personalized recommendations for credit card, home, auto, and personal loan, and insurance products. Its ProTax segment serves professional accountants in the United States and Canada.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Tech Stock Decline: Over the past three months, technology stocks have been on a downward trend, with significant losses among major players in the last week alone, indicating a shift in investor sentiment from growth to value stocks amid increasing volatility.
- Market Performance Comparison: Since Halloween, the Russell 1000 Value index has risen by 8.4%, while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index has fallen by 3.7%, reflecting a growing preference for value stocks as investors exhibit fatigue towards growth stocks.
- Microsoft Earnings Impact: Following Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, the stock plummeted 11% in a single day due to signs of slowing cloud revenue, marking the largest drop since March 2020 and highlighting the market's sensitivity to tech stock performance.
- Concerns Over AI Technology: Growing concerns about AI technology potentially disrupting the software industry have led to a nearly one-third decline in the IGV Software index since its September peak, illustrating investor caution regarding the future of the tech sector and its economic implications.
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- Tech Sector Decline: Over the past week, major tech stocks have suffered significant losses, with AMD down nearly 21% and Intuit down over 17%, indicating a sharp decline in market confidence that could lead investors to reassess their portfolios.
- AI Fatigue Emerges: As investor optimism around artificial intelligence wanes, tech stocks have continued to decline over the past three months, with the Russell 1000 Value index up 8.4% while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index is down 3.7%, reflecting a shift in market preference towards value stocks.
- Microsoft's Earnings Fail to Boost Stock: Despite Microsoft beating Wall Street expectations in its earnings report, concerns over slowing cloud revenue led to an 11% drop in its stock on the day of the announcement, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020 and highlighting the fragile confidence in tech stocks.
- Software Industry Challenges: With the rapid advancement of AI technology, there are concerns that AI could replace many software providers at lower costs, resulting in the IGV Software index dropping nearly a third from its September high, signaling intensified competition within the industry.
See More
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- Tech Stock Rout: Over the past week, major tech stocks have suffered significant losses, with AMD down nearly 21%, Intuit down over 17%, and Micron down almost 13%, indicating a sharp decline in market confidence that could lead investors to reassess their portfolios.
- AI Fatigue: As investor optimism around artificial intelligence wanes, tech stocks have seen a three-month decline, with the Russell 1000 Value index up 8.4% while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index is down 3.7%, reflecting a shift in market preference towards value stocks.
- Microsoft's Earnings Fail to Boost Stock: Despite Microsoft exceeding Wall Street expectations in its earnings report, its stock plummeted 11% in one day due to slowing cloud revenue, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2020 and highlighting concerns about the future performance of tech stocks.
- Uncertain Software Industry Outlook: The IGV Software index has dropped nearly a third from its September high, as fears grow that AI technology may replace many software providers at lower costs, intensifying competition in the industry and prompting investors to navigate future uncertainties with caution.
See More
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- Dow Jones Record High: Despite the sharp sell-off in tech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new milestone of 50,000 points on Friday, showcasing its limited tech exposure as a key advantage, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 for seven consecutive sessions, the longest stretch in nearly four years.
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- AI-Driven Revenue Growth: Google Cloud's revenue surged 48% year-over-year to $17.7 billion, with CEO Sundar Pichai emphasizing that AI is deeply integrated into customers' critical workflows, showcasing the adaptability and growth potential of software companies in the AI era.
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- Tech Stock Decline: Over the past three months, technology stocks have been on a downward trend, with significant losses among major players in the last week alone, indicating a shift in investor sentiment from growth to value stocks amid increasing volatility.
- Market Performance Comparison: Since Halloween, the Russell 1000 Value index has risen by 8.4%, while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index has fallen by 3.7%, reflecting a growing preference for value stocks as investors exhibit fatigue towards growth stocks.
- Microsoft Earnings Impact: Following Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, the stock plummeted 11% in a single day due to signs of slowing cloud revenue, marking the largest drop since March 2020 and highlighting the market's sensitivity to tech stock performance.
- Concerns Over AI Technology: Growing concerns about AI technology potentially disrupting the software industry have led to a nearly one-third decline in the IGV Software index since its September peak, illustrating investor caution regarding the future of the tech sector and its economic implications.
See More
Tech Stocks Plummet, Investor Confidence Shaken
- Tech Sector Decline: Over the past week, major tech stocks have suffered significant losses, with AMD down nearly 21% and Intuit down over 17%, indicating a sharp decline in market confidence that could lead investors to reassess their portfolios.
- AI Fatigue Emerges: As investor optimism around artificial intelligence wanes, tech stocks have continued to decline over the past three months, with the Russell 1000 Value index up 8.4% while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index is down 3.7%, reflecting a shift in market preference towards value stocks.
- Microsoft's Earnings Fail to Boost Stock: Despite Microsoft beating Wall Street expectations in its earnings report, concerns over slowing cloud revenue led to an 11% drop in its stock on the day of the announcement, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020 and highlighting the fragile confidence in tech stocks.
- Software Industry Challenges: With the rapid advancement of AI technology, there are concerns that AI could replace many software providers at lower costs, resulting in the IGV Software index dropping nearly a third from its September high, signaling intensified competition within the industry.
See More
Tech Stocks Plummet, Investor Sentiment Dips Amid AI Concerns
- Tech Stock Rout: Over the past week, major tech stocks have suffered significant losses, with AMD down nearly 21%, Intuit down over 17%, and Micron down almost 13%, indicating a sharp decline in market confidence that could lead investors to reassess their portfolios.
- AI Fatigue: As investor optimism around artificial intelligence wanes, tech stocks have seen a three-month decline, with the Russell 1000 Value index up 8.4% while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index is down 3.7%, reflecting a shift in market preference towards value stocks.
- Microsoft's Earnings Fail to Boost Stock: Despite Microsoft exceeding Wall Street expectations in its earnings report, its stock plummeted 11% in one day due to slowing cloud revenue, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2020 and highlighting concerns about the future performance of tech stocks.
- Uncertain Software Industry Outlook: The IGV Software index has dropped nearly a third from its September high, as fears grow that AI technology may replace many software providers at lower costs, intensifying competition in the industry and prompting investors to navigate future uncertainties with caution.
See More
Wall Street Software Stocks Sold Off Amid AI Fears
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Investors fled once-reliable software stocks this week due to fears that generative AI could permanently erode demand for traditional digital services, indicating a significant shift in market confidence towards tech stocks.
- Dow Jones Record High: Despite the sharp sell-off in tech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new milestone of 50,000 points on Friday, showcasing its limited tech exposure as a key advantage, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 for seven consecutive sessions, the longest stretch in nearly four years.
- Surge in Layoff Data: The latest Challenger, Gray & Christmas report revealed that job cuts in January soared to 108,435, a 205% increase from December, with AI-related layoffs accounting for 7,624, or 7%, marking the highest monthly share since tracking began in 2023, highlighting labor challenges in the tech sector.
- Market Structural Changes: Investors are questioning the once-unshakable dominance of software and tech, suggesting that if AI is the disruptor, then value stocks, cyclicals, and tangible businesses may emerge as beneficiaries, reflecting a reevaluation of future investment directions.
See More
Anthropic Launches Opus 4.6 Model, Challenging Software Industry
- Model Launch: Anthropic debuted its Opus 4.6 model on Thursday, claiming it is the company's most capable model for enterprise and knowledge work, aimed at enhancing efficiency and competing with OpenAI.
- Plugin Expansion: The company also introduced a series of enterprise-focused plugins for Claude Cowork, covering tasks in productivity, legal, sales, and marketing, further penetrating the software market.
- Market Reaction: This news caused significant stock declines for software companies like Salesforce and SAP, with Salesforce down 25% and SAP down 18% since the start of the year, reflecting market fears of AI replacing traditional software services.
- Advertising Campaign: Anthropic plans to run an ad during the Super Bowl that mocks OpenAI's reliance on ad revenue, aiming to boost brand visibility, although OpenAI CEO Sam Altman countered that his company has more users than Anthropic overall.
See More
Big Tech CEOs Address AI Threats to Software Firms
- Market Sentiment Recovery: Despite enterprise software stocks like Palantir and Oracle dropping about 12% this week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated at the Cisco AI Summit that AI will not replace the tool industry but enhance its competitiveness, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence.
- AI-Driven Revenue Growth: Google Cloud's revenue surged 48% year-over-year to $17.7 billion, with CEO Sundar Pichai emphasizing that AI is deeply integrated into customers' critical workflows, showcasing the adaptability and growth potential of software companies in the AI era.
- Emerging Competitor Threats: Investors are concerned that SaaS companies may face competition from emerging AI platforms like Aurasell and Artisan AI, which could undermine the market positions of established firms, increasing uncertainty in the industry.
- Industry Defense Strategies: ServiceNow CEO William McDermott asserted that AI will not replace core enterprise software functions but rather depend on its architecture, indicating that traditional software companies still hold significant strategic positions amid the AI wave.
See More
