Gran Tierra Estimates Net Debt of Approximately $657 Million for 2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GTE?
Although Gran Tierra's results of operations as of and for the year ended December 31, 2025, are not yet final, based upon currently available information, Gran Tierra estimates that as of and for the year ended December 31, 2025: Total company average production was approximately 46,500 BOEPD for the fourth quarter of 2025, and approximately 45,800 BOEPD for the year ended December 31, 2025; Estimated unaudited net debt as at December 31, 2025, was approximately $657 million, comprised of senior notes outstanding of $741 million less cash and cash equivalents of $83 million; Capital expenditures are estimated to be in the range of approximately $250 million to $270 million; Revenue is estimated to be in the range of approximately $590 million to $610 million; Gross profit is estimated to be in the range of approximately $65 million to $75 million; Depletion and accretion expense is estimated to be in the range of approximately $250 million to $270 million; Total operating expenses and total transportation expenses are estimated to be in the range of approximately $250 million to $270 million; Operating netback is estimated to be in the range of approximately $320 million to $340 million; Gran Tierra is expected to record a non-cash impairment charge in the range of approximately $65 million to $85 million, relating to certain of its Canadian long-lived assets, and in the range of approximately $30 million to $50 million, relating to certain of its Colombian long-lives assets; and Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2025, is estimated to be between $270 million to $290 million. The fourth quarter of 2025 financial results were negatively impacted by a large inventory build of approximately 291,000 barrels of oil in Ecuador which were sold in early January for total revenue of approximately $15 million.
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Analyst Views on GTE
Wall Street analysts forecast GTE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GTE is 5.28 USD with a low forecast of 4.68 USD and a high forecast of 5.76 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 5.320
Low
4.68
Averages
5.28
High
5.76
Current: 5.320
Low
4.68
Averages
5.28
High
5.76
About GTE
Gran Tierra Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is an independent international energy company focused on oil and natural gas exploration and production in Canada, Colombia and Ecuador. The Company operates a total of 25 blocks in Colombia and Ecuador, spanning three basins and over 1.5 million gross acres. It also holds large contiguous areas in Alberta, Canada, spanning 1.2 million gross acres across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Colombia represents approximately 85% of its production with oil reserves and production located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV) and Putumayo Basin. In MMV, the Company’s field is the Acordionero field, where it produces approximately 17-degree American Petroleum Institute (API) oil, which represents 44% of the total Company’s production. The Putumayo production is approximately 27-degree API for Chaza Block and 18-degree API for Suoriente Block, representing 27% and 9% respectively, of the total Company’s production.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Gran Tierra Energy Amends Bond Exchange Offer for Senior Notes
- Exchange Offer Amendment: Gran Tierra Energy has amended its bond exchange offer, increasing the coupon rate of existing 9.500% Senior Notes to 9.750% and introducing an amortization schedule, thereby enhancing the flexibility and attractiveness of its debt management strategy.
- Cash Consideration Adjustment: The revised total cash consideration amounts to $125 million, aimed at attracting 66.67% of existing noteholders to participate, ensuring the company can successfully execute its debt restructuring and mitigate financial risks.
- Compliance and Conditions: The success of this exchange offer hinges on meeting specific conditions, including the valid tender of 80% of existing notes, ensuring the company maintains compliance during the debt restructuring process and reduces default risks.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Through this amendment, Gran Tierra aims to bolster market confidence and improve investor relations, with expectations of a positive impact on the company's stock price, further solidifying its position in the energy market.
See More
Gran Tierra Energy Hits 52-Week High After Record Production
- Record Production: Gran Tierra Energy reported an average production of 48,235 boe/day for December 2025, marking the highest monthly production in the company's history, indicating strong growth potential in oil and gas production.
- Ecuador Production Breakthrough: In Ecuador, Gran Tierra achieved a daily oil production rate of 10,000 bbl/day in Q4, with current production at approximately 8,800 bbl/day, demonstrating enhanced production capacity in the region and fulfilling all exploration commitments.
- Significant Initial Production Rates: Discoveries at Conejo in the Hollín and Basal Tena sands delivered combined initial production rates of 3,238 bbl/day, further solidifying the company's market position in Ecuador and driving future growth.
- Inventory Impact on Performance: Despite an average production of 46,500 boe/day in Q4, the performance was affected by an inventory build of approximately 291,000 barrels of oil in Ecuador, which was sold in early January for about $15 million, reflecting market volatility risks.
See More
Gran Tierra Energy Reports Over 100% Reserve Replacement for 2025
- Reserve Replacement Achievement: Gran Tierra achieved over 100% reserve replacement in South America for 2025, with PDP and 2P reserves at 258 MMBOE, demonstrating the strength and optionality of its asset base, enhancing future growth potential.
- Significant Net Present Value: As of 2025, the net present values for 1P, 2P, and 3P reserves are $1.5 billion, $2.5 billion, and $3.3 billion respectively, indicating a robust economic foundation for the company's oil and gas resource development, supporting debt reduction and strengthening the balance sheet.
- Resource Diversification: Gran Tierra's South American portfolio includes 118 MMBBL of unrisked prospective resources and 74 MMBOE of unrisked best estimate resources, showcasing the long-term potential and strategic flexibility for future development.
- Canadian Development Reclassification: The reclassification of certain reserves in Canada resulted in a reduction of 19 MMBOE in 1P and 32 MMBOE in 2P, yet this did not significantly impact the company's net asset value, preserving capital allocation flexibility for future high-return opportunities.
See More
GTE Stock Shows Significant Volatility with 52-Week High of $11.75
- Stock Price Analysis: GTE's 52-week low is $4.33 per share, while the high is $11.75, with the last trade at $6.12, indicating significant volatility over the past year and reflecting varying market expectations regarding its future performance.
- Market Trend Observation: The current price of $6.12 is close to the 52-week low, which may prompt investors to reassess the company's fundamentals and market conditions, impacting short-term investment decisions.
- Technical Indicator Focus: GTE's stock price has crossed above the 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential upward trend that may attract the attention of technical analysts and short-term traders, potentially increasing trading volume.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Although the current price is below the 52-week high, it may still attract investors looking for low-entry opportunities, reflecting differing views on the company's future potential.
See More
Gran Tierra Energy Outlines 2026 Capital Expenditure Plan and Production Forecast
- Capital Budget Announcement: Gran Tierra Energy (GTE.TO) revealed its capital budget for 2026 on Wednesday.
- Production Guidance: The company also provided production guidance alongside the budget announcement.
See More
Gran Tierra Targets $60-$80 Million Free Cash Flow in 2026 Capital Budget
- Free Cash Flow Target: Gran Tierra anticipates achieving free cash flow of $60-$80 million in 2026, marking a strategic shift from exploration to development aimed at maximizing portfolio value and enhancing financial stability.
- Production Guidance: The company expects overall production to remain between 48,000 and 49,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2026, providing robust support for its free cash flow objectives and ensuring sustained cash generation capabilities.
- Capital Expenditure Plan: The 2026 capital budget ranges from $110 million to $160 million, focusing on high-return development projects with plans to drill 8 to 10 development wells, thereby improving production efficiency and optimizing capital utilization.
- Debt Management Strategy: Gran Tierra plans to repay $180 million of debt by October 2026, which it aims to achieve through free cash flow generation and disciplined capital spending, thereby reducing financial risk and enhancing the company's long-term growth potential.
See More
Gran Tierra Energy Amends Bond Exchange Offer for Senior Notes
- Exchange Offer Amendment: Gran Tierra Energy has amended its bond exchange offer, increasing the coupon rate of existing 9.500% Senior Notes to 9.750% and introducing an amortization schedule, thereby enhancing the flexibility and attractiveness of its debt management strategy.
- Cash Consideration Adjustment: The revised total cash consideration amounts to $125 million, aimed at attracting 66.67% of existing noteholders to participate, ensuring the company can successfully execute its debt restructuring and mitigate financial risks.
- Compliance and Conditions: The success of this exchange offer hinges on meeting specific conditions, including the valid tender of 80% of existing notes, ensuring the company maintains compliance during the debt restructuring process and reduces default risks.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Through this amendment, Gran Tierra aims to bolster market confidence and improve investor relations, with expectations of a positive impact on the company's stock price, further solidifying its position in the energy market.
See More
Gran Tierra Energy Hits 52-Week High After Record Production
- Record Production: Gran Tierra Energy reported an average production of 48,235 boe/day for December 2025, marking the highest monthly production in the company's history, indicating strong growth potential in oil and gas production.
- Ecuador Production Breakthrough: In Ecuador, Gran Tierra achieved a daily oil production rate of 10,000 bbl/day in Q4, with current production at approximately 8,800 bbl/day, demonstrating enhanced production capacity in the region and fulfilling all exploration commitments.
- Significant Initial Production Rates: Discoveries at Conejo in the Hollín and Basal Tena sands delivered combined initial production rates of 3,238 bbl/day, further solidifying the company's market position in Ecuador and driving future growth.
- Inventory Impact on Performance: Despite an average production of 46,500 boe/day in Q4, the performance was affected by an inventory build of approximately 291,000 barrels of oil in Ecuador, which was sold in early January for about $15 million, reflecting market volatility risks.
See More
Gran Tierra Energy Reports Over 100% Reserve Replacement for 2025
- Reserve Replacement Achievement: Gran Tierra achieved over 100% reserve replacement in South America for 2025, with PDP and 2P reserves at 258 MMBOE, demonstrating the strength and optionality of its asset base, enhancing future growth potential.
- Significant Net Present Value: As of 2025, the net present values for 1P, 2P, and 3P reserves are $1.5 billion, $2.5 billion, and $3.3 billion respectively, indicating a robust economic foundation for the company's oil and gas resource development, supporting debt reduction and strengthening the balance sheet.
- Resource Diversification: Gran Tierra's South American portfolio includes 118 MMBBL of unrisked prospective resources and 74 MMBOE of unrisked best estimate resources, showcasing the long-term potential and strategic flexibility for future development.
- Canadian Development Reclassification: The reclassification of certain reserves in Canada resulted in a reduction of 19 MMBOE in 1P and 32 MMBOE in 2P, yet this did not significantly impact the company's net asset value, preserving capital allocation flexibility for future high-return opportunities.
See More
GTE Stock Shows Significant Volatility with 52-Week High of $11.75
- Stock Price Analysis: GTE's 52-week low is $4.33 per share, while the high is $11.75, with the last trade at $6.12, indicating significant volatility over the past year and reflecting varying market expectations regarding its future performance.
- Market Trend Observation: The current price of $6.12 is close to the 52-week low, which may prompt investors to reassess the company's fundamentals and market conditions, impacting short-term investment decisions.
- Technical Indicator Focus: GTE's stock price has crossed above the 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential upward trend that may attract the attention of technical analysts and short-term traders, potentially increasing trading volume.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Although the current price is below the 52-week high, it may still attract investors looking for low-entry opportunities, reflecting differing views on the company's future potential.
See More
Gran Tierra Energy Outlines 2026 Capital Expenditure Plan and Production Forecast
- Capital Budget Announcement: Gran Tierra Energy (GTE.TO) revealed its capital budget for 2026 on Wednesday.
- Production Guidance: The company also provided production guidance alongside the budget announcement.
See More
Gran Tierra Targets $60-$80 Million Free Cash Flow in 2026 Capital Budget
- Free Cash Flow Target: Gran Tierra anticipates achieving free cash flow of $60-$80 million in 2026, marking a strategic shift from exploration to development aimed at maximizing portfolio value and enhancing financial stability.
- Production Guidance: The company expects overall production to remain between 48,000 and 49,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2026, providing robust support for its free cash flow objectives and ensuring sustained cash generation capabilities.
- Capital Expenditure Plan: The 2026 capital budget ranges from $110 million to $160 million, focusing on high-return development projects with plans to drill 8 to 10 development wells, thereby improving production efficiency and optimizing capital utilization.
- Debt Management Strategy: Gran Tierra plans to repay $180 million of debt by October 2026, which it aims to achieve through free cash flow generation and disciplined capital spending, thereby reducing financial risk and enhancing the company's long-term growth potential.
See More
