Goldman Sachs Downgrades MoonLake (MLTX) to Sell, Highlights Approval Risks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MLTX?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Downgrade: Goldman Sachs downgraded MoonLake from Neutral to Sell, primarily due to concerns over the approvability of its lead asset sonelokimab for hidradenitis suppurativa, which may lead to decreased investor confidence.
- Trial Failure: Analyst Richard Law highlighted that sonelokimab failed to succeed in the Phase 3 trial named VELA-2, creating uncertainty around the drug's approval in HS and potentially negatively impacting other indications.
- Price Target Increase: Despite the approval risks, Goldman raised its 12-month price target on MoonLake from $8 to $10 per share, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view on the company's future potential.
- Investor Focus: Goldman noted it will closely monitor whether MoonLake develops other assets to revive investor interest, indicating a strong market focus on the company's strategic direction moving forward.
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Analyst Views on MLTX
Wall Street analysts forecast MLTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MLTX is 24.10 USD with a low forecast of 5.00 USD and a high forecast of 45.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.770
Low
5.00
Averages
24.10
High
45.00
Current: 14.770
Low
5.00
Averages
24.10
High
45.00
About MLTX
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, formerly known as Helix Acquisition Corp, is a Switzerland-based company engaged in the healthcare industry. The Firm is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of medicines for immunologic diseases, including inflammatory skin and joint diseases. The Company develops tri-specific nanobody Sonelokimab (SLK) which purpose is to target and penetrate difficult-to-reach inflamed tissues. SLK is a molecule with enhanced enrichment in deep skin & joints and binding of targets. SLK inhibits IL-17A and IL-17F inhibition to treat inflammatory diseases, by independently inhibiting the naturally-occurring IL-17 A/A, A/F and F/F dimers that drive inflammation in patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Biotech Sector Growth: The biotech sector, particularly Moon Lake Immunotherapeutics, is gaining attention amid interest rate cuts and an AI boom, with significant stock price increases and a focus on clinical-stage biotech investments.
FDA Fast Track Designation: Moon Lake's lead drug, Sonelokimab, received Fast Track designation from the FDA for treating Palmoplantar Pustulosis, addressing a significant unmet medical need in the U.S. market.
Financial Stability: The company holds approximately $380.5 million in cash and equivalents, providing a strong financial foundation to support its regulatory filings and potential commercialization efforts without immediate capital raises.
Upcoming Investor Day: Moon Lake is set to host an Investor Day on February 23, 2026, focusing on data from its Phase 2 SOLARIS trial, which could further validate its drug's efficacy across various inflammatory diseases.
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- Stock Volatility Risk: Analyst Cantor highlights that if the stock underperforms, it could decline by 85-90%, while Agarwal sees potential upside even if the HiSCR75 change is around 18%-19%, though the Phase 3 trial poses risks that may dampen investor confidence.
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- Analyst Rating Trends: Recently, Avalo Therapeutics has seen a positive trend in analyst ratings, with Guggenheim and HC Wainwright & Co. both issuing 'Buy' ratings, with Guggenheim setting a target price of $50.00, reflecting a bullish outlook for the company.
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- Clinical Trial Support: This decision is based on results from the ongoing phase 2 LEDA trial, suggesting that sonelokimab shows promising efficacy in clinical trials, potentially offering new treatment options for patients.
- Accelerated Development: CEO Jorge Santos da Silva stated that this designation “can support the acceleration of our phase 3 program,” which will help shorten the time to market and enhance the company's competitiveness in the market.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the FDA's Fast Track designation, MoonLake's stock has shown strong upward momentum, reflecting investor optimism regarding the drug's future success.
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- Future Milestones: MoonLake anticipates releasing multiple key clinical data points in 2026, including the Phase 3 trials for PPP and progress in other indications, further solidifying its leadership position in the biopharmaceutical sector.
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- Strong Economic Signals: US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 198,000, indicating a robust labor market that enhances investor confidence in economic recovery, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.
- Easing Geopolitical Risks: President Trump stated that Iran would cease killing protesters, reducing concerns over military intervention and causing WTI crude oil prices to drop over 4%, providing support for equities.
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Biotech Sector Growth: The biotech sector, particularly Moon Lake Immunotherapeutics, is gaining attention amid interest rate cuts and an AI boom, with significant stock price increases and a focus on clinical-stage biotech investments.
FDA Fast Track Designation: Moon Lake's lead drug, Sonelokimab, received Fast Track designation from the FDA for treating Palmoplantar Pustulosis, addressing a significant unmet medical need in the U.S. market.
Financial Stability: The company holds approximately $380.5 million in cash and equivalents, providing a strong financial foundation to support its regulatory filings and potential commercialization efforts without immediate capital raises.
Upcoming Investor Day: Moon Lake is set to host an Investor Day on February 23, 2026, focusing on data from its Phase 2 SOLARIS trial, which could further validate its drug's efficacy across various inflammatory diseases.
See More
Avalo Therapeutics Completes Enrollment for AVTX-009 Trial
- Clinical Trial Progress: Avalo Therapeutics has completed enrollment for the Phase 2 LOTUS trial of AVTX-009, involving approximately 250 adults with moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa, aimed at evaluating the efficacy and safety of subcutaneous bi-weekly and monthly dosing regimens, with topline data expected in mid-2026.
- Stock Volatility Risk: Analyst Cantor highlights that if the stock underperforms, it could decline by 85-90%, while Agarwal sees potential upside even if the HiSCR75 change is around 18%-19%, though the Phase 3 trial poses risks that may dampen investor confidence.
- Potential Upside Forecast: Should the HiSCR75 change fall between 20-25%, Avalo's stock could rally by 100-150%, and if it drops to 25-30%, the stock might skyrocket over 200%, indicating the market's sensitivity to efficacy outcomes.
- Analyst Rating Trends: Recently, Avalo Therapeutics has seen a positive trend in analyst ratings, with Guggenheim and HC Wainwright & Co. both issuing 'Buy' ratings, with Guggenheim setting a target price of $50.00, reflecting a bullish outlook for the company.
See More
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- Fast Track Designation: The US FDA has granted Fast Track designation for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics' sonelokimab (SLK) for treating moderate-to-severe palmoplantar pustulosis, a rare inflammatory disorder, indicating FDA's recognition of the drug's potential.
- Clinical Trial Support: This decision is based on results from the ongoing phase 2 LEDA trial, suggesting that sonelokimab shows promising efficacy in clinical trials, potentially offering new treatment options for patients.
- Accelerated Development: CEO Jorge Santos da Silva stated that this designation “can support the acceleration of our phase 3 program,” which will help shorten the time to market and enhance the company's competitiveness in the market.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the FDA's Fast Track designation, MoonLake's stock has shown strong upward momentum, reflecting investor optimism regarding the drug's future success.
See More
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- Fast Track Designation: The FDA has granted Fast Track designation to sonelokimab for the treatment of moderate-to-severe palmoplantar pustulosis (PPP), based on positive results from the Phase 2 LEDA trial, which is expected to expedite the subsequent clinical development process.
- Clinical Trial Plans: The company plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) in H2 2026 and will discuss the latest developments in the PPP program at the upcoming Investor Day, showcasing its strategic positioning in dermatology.
- Market Opportunity: PPP is a severe chronic inflammatory disease with no approved treatments, and the FDA's Fast Track designation will help address this significant unmet medical need, indicating a substantial market potential.
- Future Milestones: MoonLake anticipates releasing multiple key clinical data points in 2026, including the Phase 3 trials for PPP and progress in other indications, further solidifying its leadership position in the biopharmaceutical sector.
See More
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- Chipmaker Rally: TSMC's forecast of stronger-than-expected Q1 sales and an increase in 2026 capex from $40.9B to $52B-$56B has boosted chipmaker stocks, enhancing market confidence in the sustainability of AI demand.
- Strong US Economic Data: Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 198,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated rise to 215,000, further supporting stock market gains.
- Hawkish Fed Comments Impact: Atlanta Fed President indicated the need for a restrictive monetary policy due to ongoing inflation pressures, causing the 10-year T-note yield to rise by 3 basis points to 4.16%, which exerted some pressure on the stock market.
- Mixed International Market Performance: The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.60%, while China's Shanghai Composite fell by 0.33%, reflecting a divergence in global market trends, prompting investors to focus on upcoming economic data.
See More
TSMC Forecasts Strong Q1 Sales and Raises 2026 CapEx to $52B-$56B
- Chipmaker Rally: TSMC's forecast of stronger-than-expected Q1 sales has led to a rally in chipmakers, with KLA Corp rising over 8% and Applied Materials over 7%, reflecting renewed market confidence in AI demand sustainability.
- Strong Economic Signals: US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 198,000, indicating a robust labor market that enhances investor confidence in economic recovery, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.
- Easing Geopolitical Risks: President Trump stated that Iran would cease killing protesters, reducing concerns over military intervention and causing WTI crude oil prices to drop over 4%, providing support for equities.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to rise by 8.4% in Q4, with a 4.6% increase excluding the Magnificent Seven tech giants, indicating a positive sentiment towards corporate profitability that may drive further stock market gains.
See More
