GEO Group Stock Declines Approximately 4%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 26 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GEO?
Source: moomoo
- Market Performance: The GEO Group's stock has experienced a decline of approximately 4%.
- Investor Sentiment: The drop in stock value may reflect broader concerns among investors regarding the company's financial health and market position.
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Analyst Views on GEO
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34.00 USD with a low forecast of 30.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 15.480
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
Current: 15.480
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
About GEO
The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Investor Sentiment: The drop in stock value may reflect broader concerns among investors regarding the company's financial health and market position.
See More
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See More
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Prison Operators' Decline: The number of prison operators has sharply decreased, indicating significant changes in the correctional system.
Impact on Incarceration Rates: This decline may affect incarceration rates and the overall management of prison populations.
Policy Implications: The reduction in prison operators raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies and practices in the justice system.
Future of Corrections: The trend suggests a potential shift towards alternative forms of rehabilitation and community-based corrections.
See More
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- Market Performance: The GEO Group's stock has experienced a decline of approximately 4%.
- Investor Sentiment: The drop in stock value may reflect broader concerns among investors regarding the company's financial health and market position.
See More
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- Contract Award: The company recently secured a contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to provide skip tracing services for non-detained individuals, expected to generate approximately $121 million in revenue, representing about 4.8% of its trailing twelve-month revenue of $2.53 billion.
- Service Expansion: GEO's subsidiary, BI Incorporated, will utilize enhanced location research and commercial data verification to deliver these services, aimed at investigating and verifying address information, thereby reinforcing the high-quality solutions provided to ICE over the past 21 years.
- Market Positioning: As a leading diversified government services provider, GEO specializes in financing, design, development, and support services for processing centers and secure facilities, and while some analysts see greater potential in AI stocks, GEO's investment value remains significant.
See More
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- Credit Facility Increase: GEO Group has amended its revolving credit facility commitments from $450M to $550M, effective January 20, 2026, enhancing the company's financial flexibility and supporting future growth needs.
- Shareholder Value Creation: Executive Chairman George Zoley stated that this amendment provides greater financial flexibility aimed at creating long-term shareholder value through an expanded stock repurchase authorization, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Enhanced Banking Support: This significant amendment to the credit agreement further demonstrates the growing support from GEO's banking partners, ensuring financial stability for the company.
- Revenue Growth from Contracts: GEO Group recently secured an ICE contract valued at $121M, further solidifying the company's cash flow and market position.
See More
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- High-Frequency Contract Analysis: Notably, the $20 strike call option expiring on March 20, 2026, has seen a trading volume of 5,830 contracts today, representing about 583,000 shares, reflecting market expectations for future price increases.
- Competitor Dynamics: Concurrently, American Express Co. (AXP) recorded an options trading volume of 15,406 contracts today, equivalent to approximately 1.5 million shares, which is 53.8% of its average daily volume of 2.9 million shares over the past month, indicating significant market interest.
- AXP High-Frequency Contract: The $340 strike put option expiring on February 20, 2026, has traded 2,629 contracts today, representing about 262,900 shares, suggesting a cautious outlook from investors regarding its future performance.
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