G Sachs Increases Gold Price Projections for 2026-27, Adjusts Target Prices and Earnings Predictions for ZIJIN MINING/CMOC
Gold Price Forecasts: Goldman Sachs has increased its gold price forecasts for 2026-27 by 10-16%, predicting average prices of USD4,978 and USD5,585 per ounce for 2026 and 1H27, respectively.
Copper Price Forecasts: The firm also raised its 2026 copper price forecast by 7% to USD12,200 per ton, leading to a 9-33% increase in earnings forecasts for Chinese copper and gold miners.
Top Stock Picks: Goldman Sachs' top stock picks include ZIJIN MINING and CMOC, which are expected to benefit from rising commodity prices and increased production.
Earnings and Target Price Adjustments: The recurring earnings forecasts for ZIJIN MINING and CMOC have been raised by 14-18% and 20-24%, respectively, with target prices increasing to HKD52 and HKD27, maintaining a Buy rating for both.
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Citi Anticipates Consistent Production Growth for ZIJIN MINING, Maintains Stock as Preferred Choice
Production Plan Announcement: Zijin Mining announced its production plan for 2026-2028, targeting 1.2 million tons of copper, 105 tons of gold, and significant increases in lithium and silver production, among other minerals.
2028 Production Targets: For 2028, Zijin aims for 1.5-1.6 million tons of copper and increased targets for gold and lithium, while zinc and silver production targets remain flat compared to previous guidance.
Growth Forecast: Citi forecasts steady growth in Zijin's production through mine expansions and mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "top pick" recommendation with a target price of HKD39 and a Buy rating.
Market Activity: The stock experienced a short selling of $455.20 million, with a short selling ratio of 30.161%, indicating significant market activity around the company's shares.
<JPM's New 'High-Conviction' Stock Picks in Emerging Markets (Table)>
JPMorgan's High-Conviction Stocks: JPMorgan has identified several "High-Conviction" stocks in emerging markets, all rated as Overweight, including Hong Kong-listed BABA-W, PING AN, and ZIJIN MINING.
Stock Performance and Short Selling: The report highlights the short selling data for these stocks, with BABA-W showing a short selling ratio of 17.737%, PING AN at 30.252%, and ZIJIN MINING at 30.161%.
Additional Stock Picks: Other notable stocks listed in different regions include TSMC in Taiwan, Samsung Electronics in South Korea, and State Bank of India in India, among others.
Market Reactions: Morgan Stanley has maintained TENCENT as a top pick, suggesting that the market may be overreacting to potential negative impacts from VAT regulation.
ZIJIN MINING Targets Top 3 Global Position in Copper and Gold Production by 2028, with Plans to Achieve Leading Indicators by 2035
Company Growth Plans: ZIJIN MINING aims to enhance its resource reserves, mineral output, sales revenue, and profit by 2028, targeting a top-three global ranking in copper and gold production.
Sustainability and Management Goals: The company plans to establish a global operation management system and an ESG sustainable development system that reflects its unique characteristics.
Long-term Vision: By 2035, ZIJIN MINING seeks significant growth in key indicators compared to 2025, aspiring to become a leading global mining company with a focus on green and high-tech practices.
Market Activity: The company is currently experiencing short selling activity amounting to $519.13 million, with a short selling ratio of 19.274%.
Citi Anticipates Higher Commodity Prices Will Favor Basic Materials While Straining Auto and Mid-Tier Battery Firms
Commodity Price Impact: Commodity prices have risen significantly, benefiting the basic materials sector in China, particularly suppliers of aluminum, copper, and lithium, with positive ratings for companies like CHALCO and MMG.
Automakers Under Pressure: Rising material costs are expected to increase the production costs for mass-market electric vehicles, with smaller automakers like XPENG and GAC GROUP being more vulnerable compared to larger firms like BYD and Geely.
Battery Industry Outlook: Short-term challenges are anticipated for second-tier battery companies, while CATL is expected to maintain a strong position due to its bargaining power and upcoming production resumption.
Tech Sector Challenges: Xiaomi may face margin pressures from increasing memory costs, which significantly impact the bill of materials for its smartphones, potentially affecting profitability.
M Stanley's H Shares Focus List (Table)
Morgan Stanley's Strategy Report: The report highlights a focus on Hong Kong and Chinese stocks, removing YANGTZE POWER and adding CHALCO to the list.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable potential upside percentages are reported for various stocks, including Alibaba (3.3%) and CATL (43.3%), while some stocks like ESPRESSIF show a decline (-2.498%).
Short Selling Trends: Significant short selling activity is noted across several stocks, with Tencent experiencing the highest short selling amount at $1.59 billion and a ratio of 9.036%.
Market Outlook: Daiwa anticipates a structural recovery in Chinese stocks by 2025, despite a majority of consumers expecting profit deterioration.
ZIJIN MINING Drops 7% as Spot Gold Dips Below USD 4.5K
Gold and Silver Prices Decline: Gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping to USD4,532.29, down 7.24%, while silver also decreased to USD75.97, down 11.1%, as institutional investors expressed caution about the short-term trends in precious metals.
Futures Market Movement: Gold futures for February delivery decreased by 3.6% to USD4,545, and silver futures for March delivery fell by 1.9% to USD77.03, indicating a continued downward trend in the market.
Impact on Hong Kong-listed Gold Miners: Hong Kong-listed gold mining companies experienced substantial losses, with ZIJIN MINING down 7.02%, ZIJIN GOLD INTL down 8.33%, and SD GOLD down 12.29%, reflecting the broader decline in precious metal prices.
Short Selling Activity: There was notable short selling activity among gold mining stocks, with significant amounts reported for various companies, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors in the sector.
Citi Anticipates Consistent Production Growth for ZIJIN MINING, Maintains Stock as Preferred Choice
Production Plan Announcement: Zijin Mining announced its production plan for 2026-2028, targeting 1.2 million tons of copper, 105 tons of gold, and significant increases in lithium and silver production, among other minerals.
2028 Production Targets: For 2028, Zijin aims for 1.5-1.6 million tons of copper and increased targets for gold and lithium, while zinc and silver production targets remain flat compared to previous guidance.
Growth Forecast: Citi forecasts steady growth in Zijin's production through mine expansions and mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "top pick" recommendation with a target price of HKD39 and a Buy rating.
Market Activity: The stock experienced a short selling of $455.20 million, with a short selling ratio of 30.161%, indicating significant market activity around the company's shares.
<JPM's New 'High-Conviction' Stock Picks in Emerging Markets (Table)>
JPMorgan's High-Conviction Stocks: JPMorgan has identified several "High-Conviction" stocks in emerging markets, all rated as Overweight, including Hong Kong-listed BABA-W, PING AN, and ZIJIN MINING.
Stock Performance and Short Selling: The report highlights the short selling data for these stocks, with BABA-W showing a short selling ratio of 17.737%, PING AN at 30.252%, and ZIJIN MINING at 30.161%.
Additional Stock Picks: Other notable stocks listed in different regions include TSMC in Taiwan, Samsung Electronics in South Korea, and State Bank of India in India, among others.
Market Reactions: Morgan Stanley has maintained TENCENT as a top pick, suggesting that the market may be overreacting to potential negative impacts from VAT regulation.
ZIJIN MINING Targets Top 3 Global Position in Copper and Gold Production by 2028, with Plans to Achieve Leading Indicators by 2035
Company Growth Plans: ZIJIN MINING aims to enhance its resource reserves, mineral output, sales revenue, and profit by 2028, targeting a top-three global ranking in copper and gold production.
Sustainability and Management Goals: The company plans to establish a global operation management system and an ESG sustainable development system that reflects its unique characteristics.
Long-term Vision: By 2035, ZIJIN MINING seeks significant growth in key indicators compared to 2025, aspiring to become a leading global mining company with a focus on green and high-tech practices.
Market Activity: The company is currently experiencing short selling activity amounting to $519.13 million, with a short selling ratio of 19.274%.
Citi Anticipates Higher Commodity Prices Will Favor Basic Materials While Straining Auto and Mid-Tier Battery Firms
Commodity Price Impact: Commodity prices have risen significantly, benefiting the basic materials sector in China, particularly suppliers of aluminum, copper, and lithium, with positive ratings for companies like CHALCO and MMG.
Automakers Under Pressure: Rising material costs are expected to increase the production costs for mass-market electric vehicles, with smaller automakers like XPENG and GAC GROUP being more vulnerable compared to larger firms like BYD and Geely.
Battery Industry Outlook: Short-term challenges are anticipated for second-tier battery companies, while CATL is expected to maintain a strong position due to its bargaining power and upcoming production resumption.
Tech Sector Challenges: Xiaomi may face margin pressures from increasing memory costs, which significantly impact the bill of materials for its smartphones, potentially affecting profitability.
M Stanley's H Shares Focus List (Table)
Morgan Stanley's Strategy Report: The report highlights a focus on Hong Kong and Chinese stocks, removing YANGTZE POWER and adding CHALCO to the list.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable potential upside percentages are reported for various stocks, including Alibaba (3.3%) and CATL (43.3%), while some stocks like ESPRESSIF show a decline (-2.498%).
Short Selling Trends: Significant short selling activity is noted across several stocks, with Tencent experiencing the highest short selling amount at $1.59 billion and a ratio of 9.036%.
Market Outlook: Daiwa anticipates a structural recovery in Chinese stocks by 2025, despite a majority of consumers expecting profit deterioration.
ZIJIN MINING Drops 7% as Spot Gold Dips Below USD 4.5K
Gold and Silver Prices Decline: Gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping to USD4,532.29, down 7.24%, while silver also decreased to USD75.97, down 11.1%, as institutional investors expressed caution about the short-term trends in precious metals.
Futures Market Movement: Gold futures for February delivery decreased by 3.6% to USD4,545, and silver futures for March delivery fell by 1.9% to USD77.03, indicating a continued downward trend in the market.
Impact on Hong Kong-listed Gold Miners: Hong Kong-listed gold mining companies experienced substantial losses, with ZIJIN MINING down 7.02%, ZIJIN GOLD INTL down 8.33%, and SD GOLD down 12.29%, reflecting the broader decline in precious metal prices.
Short Selling Activity: There was notable short selling activity among gold mining stocks, with significant amounts reported for various companies, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors in the sector.
