FY26 Sales Expected to Reach $10.3B to $10.7B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy DCH?
Sees FY26 sales $10.3B-$10.7B; Adjusted EBITDA includes synergy benefits of $50M-$75M, equating to a run rate of greater than $100M by the end of year one; Equity income from our China JV $65M-$75M; adjusted free cash flow $235M-$325M; Capital expenditures 4.5%-5% of sales; restructuring cash payments $110M-$150M; and Synergy implementation cash payments of $100M-$125M.
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Analyst Views on DCH
Wall Street analysts forecast DCH stock price to rise
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Current: 8.430
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About DCH
Dauch Corporation, formerly American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., is a global Tier 1 automotive supplier. The Company designs, engineers and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies to support electric, hybrid and internal combustion vehicles. The Company's product categories include Driveline and Metal Forming. Its Driveline products consist primarily of front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems for light trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), crossover vehicles, passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The Company's Metal Forming products consist primarily of engine, transmission, driveline and safety-critical components for traditional internal combustion engine and electric vehicle architectures including light vehicles, commercial vehicles and off-highway vehicles, as well as products for industrial markets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. Stocks Rise as Inflation Eases
- Market Performance: U.S. stocks traded higher, with the Dow Jones gaining approximately 250 points, or 0.50%, closing at 49,701.48, indicating optimistic market sentiment regarding economic recovery.
- Inflation Data: The annual consumer price inflation rate in the U.S. eased to 2.4% in January 2026 from 2.7% in December, falling below economists' expectations of 2.5%, marking the lowest inflation level since May 2025, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- Sector Dynamics: Utility stocks rose by 2% on Friday, while financial stocks fell by 0.3%, reflecting mixed reactions across different sectors that could impact investors' asset allocation strategies.
- International Market Reaction: Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.21% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 1.72%, indicating that global economic uncertainties may negatively affect investor sentiment.
See More
Dauch Sets Financial Targets for 2026 Fiscal Year
- Earnings Highlights: Dauch's Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 exceeded expectations by $0.09, indicating positive profitability, although revenue of $1.38 billion was flat year-over-year and missed estimates, impacting market confidence.
- 2026 Sales Targets: The company projects sales for the fiscal year 2026 to range between $10.3 billion and $10.7 billion, reflecting cautious optimism for future growth despite market challenges, with clear growth objectives set.
- Adjusted EBITDA Forecast: Dauch anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, including synergy benefits of $50 million to $75 million, with a run rate exceeding $100 million by year-end, showcasing integration potential.
- Cash Flow and Spending Plans: The company expects adjusted free cash flow to be between $235 million and $325 million, while capital expenditures will account for 4.5% to 5% of sales, indicating strategic planning in cost control and future growth investments.
See More
Dauch Corporation Reports 2025 Financial Results with Significant Losses
- Sales Decline: Dauch Corporation reported sales of $5.84 billion for the full year 2025, down 4.6% from $6.12 billion in 2024, indicating weak market demand that may impact future investment decisions and strategic adjustments.
- Increased Net Loss: The company experienced a net loss of $75.3 million in Q4 2025, translating to a loss of $0.63 per share, significantly worsening from a $13.7 million loss in Q4 2024, reflecting challenges faced post-acquisition that could affect investor confidence.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Despite the overall sales decline, Dauch's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $743.2 million, representing 12.7% of sales, an improvement from 12.2% in 2024, indicating enhancements in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Decline in Free Cash Flow: The adjusted free cash flow for 2025 was $213 million, down 7.4% from $230.3 million in 2024, potentially limiting the company's capacity for future capital expenditures and growth investments.
See More
American Axle & Manufacturing Set to Release Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: American Axle & Manufacturing is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 13 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.02, reflecting a 66.7% year-over-year improvement, indicating potential recovery in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $1.4 billion, representing a 1.4% year-over-year increase, which, while modest, suggests stable performance in the market and may lay the groundwork for future growth.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, American Axle has exceeded EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting and market confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and five downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced three upward and three downward revisions, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Dauch Corporation Grants Executive Stock Award
- Stock Award Program: Dauch Corporation announced on February 5, 2026, that Markus Bannert was granted 90,909 performance stock units, with a potential to earn up to 272,727 shares, aimed at incentivizing his continued employment and driving company performance.
- Performance Assessment Mechanism: The vesting of this stock award is contingent upon maintaining an average share price above $12 over a 20-day trading period ending March 31, 2029, with a maximum payout of 300% if the price reaches $22, highlighting the company's commitment to executive incentives.
- Approval Process: This stock award was approved by the Compensation Committee of Dauch's Board of Directors and granted under the NYSE Rule 303A.08 as an employment inducement award, ensuring alignment of executive interests with long-term company goals.
- Company Background: Dauch Corporation is a premier supplier of driveline and metal forming solutions serving the global automotive industry, with a powertrain-agnostic product portfolio supporting electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles, operating in 24 countries and over 175 locations, showcasing its significant influence in the automotive sector.
See More
Dauch Corporation Grants Executive Stock Award
- Stock Award Program: Dauch Corporation announced on February 5, 2026, that Markus Bannert was granted an award of 90,909 performance stock units, with a potential to earn up to 272,727 shares, aimed at incentivizing executive retention and driving company performance.
- Performance Assessment Mechanism: The vesting of this award will depend on Bannert's continued employment and the average share price over a 20-day trading period ending March 31, 2029; if the price remains above $12.00, 100% of the target award will be considered earned.
- Price Incentive Structure: The payout will increase incrementally with the stock price, with each $1.00 increase resulting in a 20% increase in payout, capped at $22.00, which could lead to a payout percentage of 300%, significantly motivating executives to enhance company stock performance.
- Company Background: Dauch Corporation is a premier driveline and metal forming supplier serving the global automotive industry, with a powertrain-agnostic product portfolio supporting electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles, operating in 24 countries and over 175 locations, showcasing its strong influence in the global automotive market.
See More
U.S. Stocks Rise as Inflation Eases
- Market Performance: U.S. stocks traded higher, with the Dow Jones gaining approximately 250 points, or 0.50%, closing at 49,701.48, indicating optimistic market sentiment regarding economic recovery.
- Inflation Data: The annual consumer price inflation rate in the U.S. eased to 2.4% in January 2026 from 2.7% in December, falling below economists' expectations of 2.5%, marking the lowest inflation level since May 2025, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- Sector Dynamics: Utility stocks rose by 2% on Friday, while financial stocks fell by 0.3%, reflecting mixed reactions across different sectors that could impact investors' asset allocation strategies.
- International Market Reaction: Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.21% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 1.72%, indicating that global economic uncertainties may negatively affect investor sentiment.
See More
Dauch Sets Financial Targets for 2026 Fiscal Year
- Earnings Highlights: Dauch's Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 exceeded expectations by $0.09, indicating positive profitability, although revenue of $1.38 billion was flat year-over-year and missed estimates, impacting market confidence.
- 2026 Sales Targets: The company projects sales for the fiscal year 2026 to range between $10.3 billion and $10.7 billion, reflecting cautious optimism for future growth despite market challenges, with clear growth objectives set.
- Adjusted EBITDA Forecast: Dauch anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, including synergy benefits of $50 million to $75 million, with a run rate exceeding $100 million by year-end, showcasing integration potential.
- Cash Flow and Spending Plans: The company expects adjusted free cash flow to be between $235 million and $325 million, while capital expenditures will account for 4.5% to 5% of sales, indicating strategic planning in cost control and future growth investments.
See More
Dauch Corporation Reports 2025 Financial Results with Significant Losses
- Sales Decline: Dauch Corporation reported sales of $5.84 billion for the full year 2025, down 4.6% from $6.12 billion in 2024, indicating weak market demand that may impact future investment decisions and strategic adjustments.
- Increased Net Loss: The company experienced a net loss of $75.3 million in Q4 2025, translating to a loss of $0.63 per share, significantly worsening from a $13.7 million loss in Q4 2024, reflecting challenges faced post-acquisition that could affect investor confidence.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Despite the overall sales decline, Dauch's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $743.2 million, representing 12.7% of sales, an improvement from 12.2% in 2024, indicating enhancements in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Decline in Free Cash Flow: The adjusted free cash flow for 2025 was $213 million, down 7.4% from $230.3 million in 2024, potentially limiting the company's capacity for future capital expenditures and growth investments.
See More
American Axle & Manufacturing Set to Release Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: American Axle & Manufacturing is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 13 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.02, reflecting a 66.7% year-over-year improvement, indicating potential recovery in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $1.4 billion, representing a 1.4% year-over-year increase, which, while modest, suggests stable performance in the market and may lay the groundwork for future growth.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, American Axle has exceeded EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting and market confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and five downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced three upward and three downward revisions, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Dauch Corporation Grants Executive Stock Award
- Stock Award Program: Dauch Corporation announced on February 5, 2026, that Markus Bannert was granted 90,909 performance stock units, with a potential to earn up to 272,727 shares, aimed at incentivizing his continued employment and driving company performance.
- Performance Assessment Mechanism: The vesting of this stock award is contingent upon maintaining an average share price above $12 over a 20-day trading period ending March 31, 2029, with a maximum payout of 300% if the price reaches $22, highlighting the company's commitment to executive incentives.
- Approval Process: This stock award was approved by the Compensation Committee of Dauch's Board of Directors and granted under the NYSE Rule 303A.08 as an employment inducement award, ensuring alignment of executive interests with long-term company goals.
- Company Background: Dauch Corporation is a premier supplier of driveline and metal forming solutions serving the global automotive industry, with a powertrain-agnostic product portfolio supporting electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles, operating in 24 countries and over 175 locations, showcasing its significant influence in the automotive sector.
See More
Dauch Corporation Grants Executive Stock Award
- Stock Award Program: Dauch Corporation announced on February 5, 2026, that Markus Bannert was granted an award of 90,909 performance stock units, with a potential to earn up to 272,727 shares, aimed at incentivizing executive retention and driving company performance.
- Performance Assessment Mechanism: The vesting of this award will depend on Bannert's continued employment and the average share price over a 20-day trading period ending March 31, 2029; if the price remains above $12.00, 100% of the target award will be considered earned.
- Price Incentive Structure: The payout will increase incrementally with the stock price, with each $1.00 increase resulting in a 20% increase in payout, capped at $22.00, which could lead to a payout percentage of 300%, significantly motivating executives to enhance company stock performance.
- Company Background: Dauch Corporation is a premier driveline and metal forming supplier serving the global automotive industry, with a powertrain-agnostic product portfolio supporting electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles, operating in 24 countries and over 175 locations, showcasing its strong influence in the global automotive market.
See More
