Ferrovial (BME:FER) Valuation Assessment Following Robust 3-Month Stock Price Surge
Stock Performance: Ferrovial's stock has increased by about 4% in the past month and over 20% in the last three months, leading to a total shareholder return of around 41% over the past year, indicating growing investor interest in its growth prospects.
Valuation Concerns: The current share price of €56.76 is slightly above analyst targets, with a fair value estimated at €53.18, raising questions about whether the stock is overvalued or if the market is anticipating future growth.
Earnings and Risks: Despite concerns about overvaluation, Ferrovial's earnings may remain resilient due to strong North American toll road growth and a robust order book, although potential macroeconomic shifts could impact future returns.
Investment Opportunities: The article suggests exploring other investment opportunities, including undervalued stocks based on cash flows, healthcare AI stocks, and dividend stocks with yields over 3%, while emphasizing that the analysis is not financial advice.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on FER
About FER
About the author

- Ferrovial Underperformance: Ferrovial is down 2.3% today, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq 100, reflecting market concerns about its short-term outlook, which could impact investor confidence.
- Year-to-Date Performance: Despite today's decline, Ferrovial has gained 5.4% year-to-date, indicating its potential in long-term investments, which may attract investors seeking stable returns.
- Arm Holdings Movement: Arm Holdings is down 2.1% today, suggesting a possible weakening of market expectations for its future growth, prompting investors to monitor its subsequent performance to assess risk.
- Western Digital Surge: Western Digital is up 10.6% today, demonstrating market confidence in its business recovery, potentially providing investors with short-term profit opportunities.

New Nasdaq-100 Entrants: Six companies will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index later this month.
Walmart's Listing Change: Walmart will not be included in the Nasdaq-100 as it switched its listing from the New York Stock Exchange too late to qualify.
Eligibility Criteria: The Nasdaq-100 consists of the largest 100 nonfinancial companies on the Nasdaq, with eligibility based on data from the end of November.
Reconstitution Timing: The Nasdaq-100 is reconstituted annually in December, and the new entrants were announced recently.
- Global Growth Milestone: Ferrovial announced its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, marking a significant milestone one and a half years after its U.S. market debut, which enhances the company's visibility among global investors and is expected to broaden its shareholder base.
- Increased Market Confidence: CEO Ignacio Madridejos emphasized that this inclusion reflects market confidence in its distinctive integrated business model, which is anticipated to drive the development of high-value projects that promote economic growth.
- U.S. Market Strategy: Since its listing in May 2024, Ferrovial has become the first IBEX 35 component to trade on Nasdaq, further solidifying its leadership position in the North American infrastructure market.
- Long-term Value Commitment: The company is committed to investing in the U.S. and creating long-term shareholder value, particularly through significant projects like the development of the New Terminal One at New York's JFK International Airport, demonstrating a strong commitment to future growth.
- Index Reconstitution: Nasdaq announced the addition of six companies, including Alnylam Pharmaceuticals and Western Digital, to the Nasdaq-100 Index effective December 22, 2025, reflecting market recognition and importance of these non-financial firms.
- Asset Management Scale: As of December 2025, the Nasdaq-100 Index underpins over $600 billion in assets under management, highlighting its significance in global investment products, particularly in relation to the Invesco QQQ Trust.
- Industry Diversity: The newly added companies span multiple sectors including biotechnology, technology, and media, further enhancing the Nasdaq-100 Index's representation in the new economy and promoting investor interest in diversified portfolios.
- Market Impact: This reconstitution will affect the trading of various derivatives and structured products, potentially increasing liquidity and market attention on the related stocks, thereby influencing investor decisions and market dynamics.
- Termination of Current Program: Ferrovial has decided to terminate its ongoing share buyback program initiated on June 2, 2025, reflecting a significant shift in its capital management strategy aimed at optimizing resource allocation for future projects.
- Launch of New Buyback Program: The new buyback program has a maximum investment of €800 million and aims to repurchase up to 15 million shares, representing approximately 2.04% of the company's issued share capital, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
- Repurchase Conditions Established: The new program stipulates that daily repurchases will not exceed 25% of the average trading volume, and purchases will adhere to independent market prices, ensuring transparency and compliance, which enhances investor trust.
- Brokerage Selection: Goldman Sachs has been appointed as the executing broker for the new buyback program, responsible for independent decision-making and trade execution, aiming to enhance buyback efficiency through professional management.

Stock Performance: Ferrovial's stock has increased by about 4% in the past month and over 20% in the last three months, leading to a total shareholder return of around 41% over the past year, indicating growing investor interest in its growth prospects.
Valuation Concerns: The current share price of €56.76 is slightly above analyst targets, with a fair value estimated at €53.18, raising questions about whether the stock is overvalued or if the market is anticipating future growth.
Earnings and Risks: Despite concerns about overvaluation, Ferrovial's earnings may remain resilient due to strong North American toll road growth and a robust order book, although potential macroeconomic shifts could impact future returns.
Investment Opportunities: The article suggests exploring other investment opportunities, including undervalued stocks based on cash flows, healthcare AI stocks, and dividend stocks with yields over 3%, while emphasizing that the analysis is not financial advice.









