Global petrochemical firms shape up in oversupply crisis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
0mins
Source: Newsfilter
Petrochemical Industry Challenges: Major petrochemical producers in Europe and Asia are facing significant challenges due to high energy costs and overcapacity, particularly from China, leading to consolidation efforts and production cuts across the industry.
Recent Consolidation Moves: Companies like ExxonMobil, Formosa Petrochemical, and INEOS are making strategic decisions such as plant closures and acquisitions to adapt to market conditions, while Shell has divested its assets in Singapore to focus on more profitable operations.
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Analyst Views on LYB
Wall Street analysts forecast LYB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LYB is 47.29 USD with a low forecast of 36.00 USD and a high forecast of 57.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
11 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 53.880
Low
36.00
Averages
47.29
High
57.00
Current: 53.880
Low
36.00
Averages
47.29
High
57.00
About LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is a global, independent chemical company creating solutions for everyday sustainable living. The Company's segments include Olefins and Polyolefins-Americas (O&P-Americas), Olefins and Polyolefins-Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI), Intermediates and Derivatives (I&D), Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS), and Technology. The O&P-Americas and O&P-EAI segments produces and markets olefins and co-products, polyethylene, and polypropylene. The I&D segment produces and markets propylene oxide (PO) and its derivatives, oxyfuels and related products, and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer (SM), and acetyls. The APS segment produces and markets compounding and solutions, such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors, and powders. The Technology segment develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
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- Stock Price Plunge: Both Dow and LyondellBasell saw their stock prices plummet by 41.7% in 2025, reaching multiyear lows, reflecting intensified competition and weak demand that have undermined investor confidence.
- Cost-Cutting Measures: Dow plans to achieve $500 million in cost savings by the second half of 2025 and is cutting approximately 4,500 jobs, which will incur one-time severance costs of $600 million to $800 million, aimed at improving its financial health amid ongoing market downturns.
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- Value Enhancement Program Progress: The company reported $1.1 billion in recurring annual EBITDA for 2025, with a target of $1.5 billion by 2028, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, particularly through cost advantages in the Middle East.
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See More
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- Revenue vs. Estimates: The company achieved revenue of $7.09 billion in Q4, down 25.4% year-over-year, although it beat market expectations by $270 million, reflecting overall weak demand that could influence future investment decisions.
- EBITDA Performance: LyondellBasell's EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $345 million, or $417 million excluding identified items, highlighting challenges in cost control that may affect profitability moving forward.
- Cash Improvement Plan: The company has raised its target for the Cash Improvement Plan from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, aiming to enhance financial stability despite ongoing profitability pressures.
See More
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- Market Sentiment Shift: As fears grow that artificial intelligence could disrupt demand rather than enhance it, software and AI-exposed stocks have faced significant sell-offs at the start of 2023, particularly in February, leading investors to reassess their risk exposure.
- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
- Strong Dow Jones Performance: Amid the decline in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied towards all-time highs, suggesting increased investor confidence in industries tied to physical assets and cyclical activity, further emphasizing the market's demand for safety from AI-driven productivity risks.
See More
Chemical Giants Dow and LyondellBasell Face Major Setbacks in 2025
- Stock Price Plunge: Both Dow and LyondellBasell saw their stock prices plummet by 41.7% in 2025, reaching multiyear lows, reflecting intensified competition and weak demand that have undermined investor confidence.
- Cost-Cutting Measures: Dow plans to achieve $500 million in cost savings by the second half of 2025 and is cutting approximately 4,500 jobs, which will incur one-time severance costs of $600 million to $800 million, aimed at improving its financial health amid ongoing market downturns.
- Cash Flow Improvements: LyondellBasell anticipates $600 million in cash flow improvements in 2025, and while it has not cut its dividend, it is enhancing cash flow through asset sales and project pauses, demonstrating resilience in challenging conditions.
- Future Outlook: Although analysts expect Dow to remain negative in earnings for 2026, LyondellBasell is projected to build on its 2025 profitability, with even better performance anticipated in 2027, indicating potential for industry recovery.
See More
LyondellBasell Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Exceptional Safety Performance: LyondellBasell achieved its safest year in 2025 with a record-low incident rate despite significant maintenance activities, demonstrating the company's operational capability and commitment to employee safety in challenging market conditions.
- Value Enhancement Program Progress: The company reported $1.1 billion in recurring annual EBITDA for 2025, with a target of $1.5 billion by 2028, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, particularly through cost advantages in the Middle East.
- Strong Cash Flow Management: The CFO noted that LyondellBasell generated $2.3 billion in cash from operations in 2025, maintaining a cash conversion ratio of 95%, and exceeded its cash conservation goal by $200 million, showcasing robust financial flexibility and resilience against market fluctuations.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Management anticipates an additional $500 million cash improvement in 2026 and plans to limit capital expenditures to $1.2 billion, emphasizing a focus on immediately profitable projects to ensure long-term value creation amid ongoing market downturns.
See More
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- Revenue Exceeds Expectations: LyondellBasell reported fourth-quarter sales and other operating revenues of $7.091 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.799 billion, although this represents a decline from $7.808 billion a year earlier, indicating resilience amid market challenges.
- Adjusted EPS Decline: The company posted an adjusted diluted loss per share of $(0.26), falling short of the $0.13 analyst estimate, reflecting pressure on profits from higher NGL feedstock and natural gas costs, which impacted investor confidence.
- Significant Yearly Decline: For the full year 2025, LyondellBasell reported a net loss of $738 million, or $(2.34) per diluted share, a stark contrast to the net income of $1.367 billion in 2024, highlighting the substantial impact of global trade disruptions and falling oil prices on performance.
- Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: In 2025, LyondellBasell generated $2.262 billion in net cash from operating activities with a 95% cash conversion rate, while returning $1.965 billion to shareholders, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities even in adverse conditions.
See More
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- Financial Overview: LyondellBasell reported a net loss of $140 million in Q4, translating to a loss of $0.45 per share, which is an improvement from last year's $603 million loss or $1.87 per share, indicating resilience amid challenging conditions.
- Adjusted Earnings Situation: Excluding identified items, the company posted a loss of $0.26 per share compared to a profit of $0.77 per share last year, reflecting ongoing pressures from cost management and market challenges.
- Cash Improvement Plan Success: Despite a tough market environment, LyondellBasell's Cash Improvement Plan achieved $800 million in cash flow for 2025, exceeding the $600 million target, and aims to raise the cumulative target to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, showcasing positive financial management progress.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to invest $1.2 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on maintaining safe and reliable operations while continuing the construction of MoReTec-1, aimed at enhancing long-term operational capacity and market competitiveness.
See More
LyondellBasell Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Significant Loss
- Earnings Overview: LyondellBasell reported a net loss of $140 million for Q4 2025, translating to a diluted loss of $0.45 per share, indicating the company's vulnerability in a deteriorating market environment, which may negatively impact stock performance.
- Revenue vs. Estimates: The company achieved revenue of $7.09 billion in Q4, down 25.4% year-over-year, although it beat market expectations by $270 million, reflecting overall weak demand that could influence future investment decisions.
- EBITDA Performance: LyondellBasell's EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $345 million, or $417 million excluding identified items, highlighting challenges in cost control that may affect profitability moving forward.
- Cash Improvement Plan: The company has raised its target for the Cash Improvement Plan from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, aiming to enhance financial stability despite ongoing profitability pressures.
See More
