Nvidia Corp Faces Stock Volatility Concerns Amid AI Bubble Fears
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Benzinga
- Stock Performance Concerns: Nvidia (NVDA) has seen little price movement since August, raising investor concerns about its future profitability amid fears of an AI bubble, which could lead to further stock declines.
- Options Market Dynamics: The implied volatility data for options indicates that put options are priced higher than call options for the February 20 expiration, suggesting that investors are prioritizing downside protection, reflecting fears of a price drop.
- Future Price Expectations: Using the Black-Scholes model, NVDA's stock is projected to fluctuate between $173.44 and $201.70 by February 20, indicating high uncertainty in market price expectations that could influence investor decisions.
- Bullish Trading Strategy: Investors might consider a 197.50/200 bull call spread expiring on February 20, with a maximum profit potential of $174, representing a nearly 229% return, indicating that there are still opportunities for profit in the current market environment.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NVDA?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVDA is 264.97 USD with a low forecast of 200.00 USD and a high forecast of 352.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 185.410
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 185.410
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia Stock Projected to Reach $300
- Price Projection: Nvidia's current stock price is around $175, and to reach $300 by year-end, it would need to rise over 70%, a target that appears realistic given the company's growth potential and market conditions.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Meta Platforms reported $72.2 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, with expectations to increase this to between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, while Alphabet plans to spend $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026, driving significant demand for Nvidia GPUs and enhancing its market position.
- Earnings Expectations: With Nvidia's current price-to-earnings ratio at 40, achieving a stock price of $300 requires at least $7.50 in earnings per share, and analysts project $7.66 for FY 2027, providing strong support for the stock's upward trajectory.
- Market Opportunities: As investments in data centers continue to rise, Nvidia stands to benefit from this trend, particularly in 2026, where it is expected to experience dual earnings growth, further solidifying its leadership in the AI sector.
See More
Montage Technology Shares Surge 60% on Hong Kong Debut, Raising $902 Million
- Strong Debut Performance: Montage Technology's shares surged approximately 60% on their Hong Kong debut, climbing from the offering price of HK$106.89 to HK$171, indicating robust market demand for its high-performance semiconductors and reinforcing its position in the cloud computing and AI sectors.
- Significant Fundraising: The IPO raised $902 million, reflecting strong investor interest in Chinese AI and semiconductor firms, particularly as the public tranche was oversubscribed by more than 700 times and the international offering was nearly 38 times covered.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite Montage's successful listing, competition is heating up, with Huawei and its chip unit HiSilicon holding a leading share of the domestic market, suggesting that the push for self-sufficiency will lead to fiercer rivalry within the industry.
- Evolving Policy Landscape: As the Chinese government intensifies efforts for self-sufficiency in advanced chips, the recent approval for Nvidia's H200 imports under specific conditions highlights the uncertainty in policy that could impact market dynamics.
See More
Key Highlights from Monday's Investing Club Meeting
- Tech Stock Rally: The S&P 500 rose on Monday, buoyed by strong performances in big tech, with club holdings Nvidia and Broadcom climbing over 3%, indicating sustained market confidence in AI investments.
- Broadcom Rating Upgrade: The club upgraded Broadcom to a buy-equivalent 1 rating on Friday, reflecting optimism about its growth potential as a major beneficiary of increased AI spending, especially with Alphabet and Meta planning to boost their AI budgets.
- Microsoft Downgrade: Melius Research downgraded Microsoft from buy to hold, citing concerns that CEO Satya Nadella has lost the AI narrative; however, the club maintains a long-term positive outlook on Microsoft shares, indicating confidence in its future performance.
- Corning Stock Surge: Corning's stock jumped 7% to record highs after being featured as an
See More
OpenAI Regains Growth Momentum Amid Competitive Pressure
- Monthly Growth Recovery: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed in an internal message that ChatGPT's monthly growth rate has rebounded to over 10%, indicating the company's ability to maintain growth under competitive pressure, which boosts investor confidence.
- Surge in Codex Usage: Following the release of the new GPT-5.3-Codex model and a standalone Mac app, Codex usage surged by approximately 50% in the past week, enhancing the product's market appeal and potentially driving future revenue growth.
- Advertising Strategy Adjustment: In response to competitor Anthropic's critical ads, Altman labeled them as
See More
Amazon Stock Declines 11.1% Year-to-Date
- Amazon's Poor Performance: Currently, Amazon's stock is down 2.4%, with a year-to-date decline of 11.1%, indicating market concerns about its future growth prospects, which may affect investor confidence and lead to capital outflows.
- IBM Stock Fluctuation: International Business Machines (IBM) shares are down 1.9%, highlighting challenges in the current market environment that could impact its future investment appeal and market share.
- Microsoft's Resilience: In contrast to Amazon, Microsoft shares are up 1.9%, indicating relative strength in the market, which may attract more investor interest in its growth potential.
- Dow Component Dynamics: The stock movements of Amazon, IBM, and Microsoft reflect varying performances among Dow components, prompting investors to monitor how these changes affect overall market sentiment.
See More
Broadcom Stock Rises on Surge in AI Investments
- Surge in Big Tech Spending: Google's capital expenditure forecast has been raised to $175-$185 billion, while Amazon's spending reaches $200 billion, providing significant market support for AI hardware suppliers like Broadcom, with expectations that Big Tech's capital spending will hit $550-$600 billion in 2026, up from $380 billion in 2025.
- Semiconductor Industry Growth Outlook: The semiconductor industry is projected to reach $1 trillion in annual revenue, with global sales at $791.7 billion in 2025 and expected to grow by 26% in 2026, primarily driven by strong demand for AI chips, where Broadcom is particularly prominent.
- Broadcom's Key Role in AI Economy: Broadcom's AI chip revenue surged to $6.5 billion this quarter, with projections of $8.2 billion next quarter, reflecting a 100% year-on-year growth, and the company's backlog across XPUs, switches, optics, and racks exceeds $73 billion, highlighting its critical position in AI infrastructure.
- Broadcom's Market Positioning: Broadcom is not only a supplier of AI hardware but is also referred to as the
See More
Nvidia Stock Projected to Reach $300
- Price Projection: Nvidia's current stock price is around $175, and to reach $300 by year-end, it would need to rise over 70%, a target that appears realistic given the company's growth potential and market conditions.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Meta Platforms reported $72.2 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, with expectations to increase this to between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, while Alphabet plans to spend $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026, driving significant demand for Nvidia GPUs and enhancing its market position.
- Earnings Expectations: With Nvidia's current price-to-earnings ratio at 40, achieving a stock price of $300 requires at least $7.50 in earnings per share, and analysts project $7.66 for FY 2027, providing strong support for the stock's upward trajectory.
- Market Opportunities: As investments in data centers continue to rise, Nvidia stands to benefit from this trend, particularly in 2026, where it is expected to experience dual earnings growth, further solidifying its leadership in the AI sector.
See More
Montage Technology Shares Surge 60% on Hong Kong Debut, Raising $902 Million
- Strong Debut Performance: Montage Technology's shares surged approximately 60% on their Hong Kong debut, climbing from the offering price of HK$106.89 to HK$171, indicating robust market demand for its high-performance semiconductors and reinforcing its position in the cloud computing and AI sectors.
- Significant Fundraising: The IPO raised $902 million, reflecting strong investor interest in Chinese AI and semiconductor firms, particularly as the public tranche was oversubscribed by more than 700 times and the international offering was nearly 38 times covered.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite Montage's successful listing, competition is heating up, with Huawei and its chip unit HiSilicon holding a leading share of the domestic market, suggesting that the push for self-sufficiency will lead to fiercer rivalry within the industry.
- Evolving Policy Landscape: As the Chinese government intensifies efforts for self-sufficiency in advanced chips, the recent approval for Nvidia's H200 imports under specific conditions highlights the uncertainty in policy that could impact market dynamics.
See More
Key Highlights from Monday's Investing Club Meeting
- Tech Stock Rally: The S&P 500 rose on Monday, buoyed by strong performances in big tech, with club holdings Nvidia and Broadcom climbing over 3%, indicating sustained market confidence in AI investments.
- Broadcom Rating Upgrade: The club upgraded Broadcom to a buy-equivalent 1 rating on Friday, reflecting optimism about its growth potential as a major beneficiary of increased AI spending, especially with Alphabet and Meta planning to boost their AI budgets.
- Microsoft Downgrade: Melius Research downgraded Microsoft from buy to hold, citing concerns that CEO Satya Nadella has lost the AI narrative; however, the club maintains a long-term positive outlook on Microsoft shares, indicating confidence in its future performance.
- Corning Stock Surge: Corning's stock jumped 7% to record highs after being featured as an
See More
OpenAI Regains Growth Momentum Amid Competitive Pressure
- Monthly Growth Recovery: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed in an internal message that ChatGPT's monthly growth rate has rebounded to over 10%, indicating the company's ability to maintain growth under competitive pressure, which boosts investor confidence.
- Surge in Codex Usage: Following the release of the new GPT-5.3-Codex model and a standalone Mac app, Codex usage surged by approximately 50% in the past week, enhancing the product's market appeal and potentially driving future revenue growth.
- Advertising Strategy Adjustment: In response to competitor Anthropic's critical ads, Altman labeled them as
See More
Amazon Stock Declines 11.1% Year-to-Date
- Amazon's Poor Performance: Currently, Amazon's stock is down 2.4%, with a year-to-date decline of 11.1%, indicating market concerns about its future growth prospects, which may affect investor confidence and lead to capital outflows.
- IBM Stock Fluctuation: International Business Machines (IBM) shares are down 1.9%, highlighting challenges in the current market environment that could impact its future investment appeal and market share.
- Microsoft's Resilience: In contrast to Amazon, Microsoft shares are up 1.9%, indicating relative strength in the market, which may attract more investor interest in its growth potential.
- Dow Component Dynamics: The stock movements of Amazon, IBM, and Microsoft reflect varying performances among Dow components, prompting investors to monitor how these changes affect overall market sentiment.
See More
Broadcom Stock Rises on Surge in AI Investments
- Surge in Big Tech Spending: Google's capital expenditure forecast has been raised to $175-$185 billion, while Amazon's spending reaches $200 billion, providing significant market support for AI hardware suppliers like Broadcom, with expectations that Big Tech's capital spending will hit $550-$600 billion in 2026, up from $380 billion in 2025.
- Semiconductor Industry Growth Outlook: The semiconductor industry is projected to reach $1 trillion in annual revenue, with global sales at $791.7 billion in 2025 and expected to grow by 26% in 2026, primarily driven by strong demand for AI chips, where Broadcom is particularly prominent.
- Broadcom's Key Role in AI Economy: Broadcom's AI chip revenue surged to $6.5 billion this quarter, with projections of $8.2 billion next quarter, reflecting a 100% year-on-year growth, and the company's backlog across XPUs, switches, optics, and racks exceeds $73 billion, highlighting its critical position in AI infrastructure.
- Broadcom's Market Positioning: Broadcom is not only a supplier of AI hardware but is also referred to as the
See More
